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Tue, Nov 109:00 PMETUtah
Utah JazzJazz
MIA1.34UTA3.92via Polymarket

Miami Heat vs Utah Jazz Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 10

Updated Nov 9, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

MIA

Statz pick

Miami Heat to win

We give the Miami Heat a 70% chance, against 30% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →

70%
MIA to win
Polymarket1.34

The model favours the Miami Heat at 70% to beat the Utah Jazz, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and a total of 235.9. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Keyonte George, who is day-to-day with an ankle problem for Utah.

The Miami Heat visit the Utah Jazz on Tuesday 10 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Miami the favourite at 70% to win, with a model line of -6.9. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Utah arrive thin in the frontcourt and in poor form.

How the teams arrive

Utah have lost nine of their last 10, a 1-9 run. The one win was 120-119 over New Orleans on 23 October. Recent scores have been ugly: 100-115 at Minnesota, 100-112 at Dallas and 97-119 at San Antonio. The Jazz average 106.2 points for and concede 117.9 over that stretch. They have lost their last four away games, and they also lost at home to Portland, 90-112.

Miami are 4-6 over their last 10, with a sequence of W L W L W W L L L L, reading from the most recent game. They won 114-108 at Sacramento in their latest outing and 117-116 at the Clippers before that. The best result was a 145-125 home win over Indiana. The worst was a 117-138 loss at the Lakers. Miami average 115.8 points for and allow 121.1. They are on the road again here.

Team news and lineups

Miami have nobody on the injury report. That is a clear edge in a game where Utah are short of bodies.

For Utah, Keyonte George is day-to-day with a right ankle injury. He left Sunday's game against Minnesota in the fourth quarter and is questionable for this one. He is the lead guard, so his status shapes the whole offence. If he sits, the ball handling falls to others and the scoring load spreads thin.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL and a 6-to-8 week timeline. Jusuf Nurkic is out with a foot injury and will be re-evaluated in about two weeks. Lauri Markkanen is out with a wrist injury. That removes three frontline pieces at once. Jaxson Hayes, Mo Bamba and Kyle Filipowski are the likely names to absorb the big-man minutes. Josh Okogie, Josh Green and Brice Sensabaugh are candidates for bigger roles on the wing. Utah will lack size and rim protection against a Miami side at full strength.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected for 26.4 points, 11.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists. With Utah's bigs missing, he should find the paint open. He is the main driver of Miami's edge.

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo is projected for 18.5 points, 8.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He gives Miami a second interior threat against a patched-up Utah frontcourt.

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell is projected for 13.3 points, 6.7 assists and 1.9 threes. He sets the pace and is the playmaker to watch on the Miami side.

Keyonte George

Keyonte George is projected for 18.4 points, 5.8 assists and 1.9 threes, if he plays. He is Utah's best scorer on the projected sheet, and his ankle decides how much the offence has.

Darryn Peterson

Darryn Peterson is projected for 14.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists. He will carry more creation duty, especially if George is limited.

Jaxson Hayes

Jaxson Hayes is projected for 9.4 points and 5.6 rebounds. He is the centre with Utah's bigs out, and he faces a heavy workload against Adebayo and Antetokounmpo.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Miami Heat. It gives them a 70% win probability and a -6.9 line, with team scores of 121.4 for Miami and 114.5 for Utah. The projected total is 235.9. The gap comes from Utah's injuries and their 1-9 run, set against a healthy Miami team that can score.

No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet, so the model-versus-market comparison is missing and we cannot say whether the number offers value. Check the NBA odds page once lines open. A total near the model's 235.9 would point to a high-scoring game, given both defences have been leaking points.

Statz pick: Miami Heat, 70% win probability, model line -6.9.

Lines move before tip, especially with George's status unresolved, so check the latest number before you act.

MIA @ UTA questions

Who does the model favour in Miami Heat at Utah Jazz?
The Statz model favours the Miami Heat at 70% to win. Its line makes Miami a 6.9-point favourite, with projected scores of 121.4 for Miami and 114.5 for the Utah Jazz.
What is the projected total for Heat vs Jazz?
The model projects a total of 235.9 points. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with. Check the odds page once lines open.
Is Keyonte George playing for Utah on 10 November?
George is day-to-day with a right ankle injury and is considered questionable. He left Sunday's game against Minnesota in the fourth quarter after 19 points, eight assists and five rebounds. His status is the key Utah update.
Who else is out for the Utah Jazz?
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL for 6-to-8 weeks. Jusuf Nurkic is out with a foot injury, and Lauri Markkanen is out with a wrist injury. That leaves Utah short in the frontcourt.
How have the Utah Jazz played recently?
Utah are 1-9 in their last 10, with their only win a 120-119 result over New Orleans. They average 106.2 points for and allow 117.9, and they lost 100-115 at Minnesota in their last game.
Is anyone injured for the Miami Heat?
No. The Miami Heat have nobody on the injury report for this game. They are 4-6 in their last 10 and won 114-108 at Sacramento in their most recent game.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Miami Heat or Utah Jazz?

The Statz model favours the Miami Heat with a 70% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 30%. Over their last five games the Utah Jazz are 0-5 and the Miami Heat are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Miami Heat at Utah Jazz?

No spread or total is posted yet for Miami Heat at Utah Jazz; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Miami Heat at Utah Jazz?

For Miami Heat at Utah Jazz, the model projects Keyonte George for 18.4 points and Darryn Peterson for 14.0 points for the Utah Jazz. For the Miami Heat it projects Giannis Antetokounmpo for 26.4 points and Bam Adebayo for 18.5 points.