Memphis GrizzliesGrizzlies
Mon, Nov 97:30 PMETToronto
Toronto RaptorsRaptors
MEM2.41TOR1.71via Polymarket

Memphis Grizzlies vs Toronto Raptors Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 9

Updated Nov 8, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

TOR

Statz pick

Toronto Raptors to win

We give the Toronto Raptors a 61% chance, against 39% for the Memphis Grizzlies. See the full projection →

61%
TOR to win
Polymarket1.71

The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors at 61% over the Memphis Grizzlies, with a model line of -3.9 and a projected total of 229.6. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to compare. The injury that matters most is Immanuel Quickley, day-to-day with a hamstring issue and questionable for Monday.

The Memphis Grizzlies visit the Toronto Raptors on Monday 9 November, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes Toronto the favourite at 61% and sets the Raptors at -3.9. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so the market side of the comparison is blank for now. Check the NBA odds page for updates.

How the teams arrive

Toronto are 5-4 over their last nine games, and the run has swung hard. The Raptors won 121-107 at Milwaukee last time out, after a 109-128 loss at Denver. At home they have been strong: 135-92 over Chicago and 129-99 over Orlando, though they also lost 114-121 to Orlando two days later. They average 118.2 points for and allow 112.8. The 94-117 loss at Minnesota is the worst road result in the sample.

Memphis are 6-3 over the same stretch and average 117.9 points for and 111.8 against, a profile close to Toronto's. The recent run is the concern. A string of wins, including 136-105 over Sacramento and 124-103 at Portland, ended with losses to Oklahoma City (97-128), Indiana (103-107) and New Orleans (134-135). The Grizzlies now play away from home, and the Oklahoma City defeat was heavy.

Team news and lineups

Toronto carry the bigger question marks. Scottie Barnes (adductor) is day-to-day after missing the Milwaukee game, his first absence of the season. Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) is day-to-day and listed as questionable. If both sit, the creation load shifts to RJ Barrett and the guards behind him, and the minutes for Jamal Shead rise.

Kawhi Leonard (knee) is out and is not expected back until the end of November. Nate Bittle (foot) is also out, though he is not expected to crack the rotation anyway.

Memphis are without Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) and Isaiah Stewart (knee bone bruise). Stewart's absence thins the frontcourt and pushes more minutes to the bigs behind him. Pippen's back issue costs the Grizzlies guard depth. Richie Saunders is recovering from a torn ACL and is not in the picture yet. Check the status of Barnes and Quickley before tip, because the model leans on both.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

RJ Barrett

RJ Barrett is projected for 21.7 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.7 threes. He tops the Raptors' scoring projection, and with Leonard out he is the steadiest source of offence if the other creators are limited.

Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes is projected for 17.8 points, 6.2 rebounds and 5.1 assists. The line looks modest for a player of his role, which reflects the day-to-day tag. If he plays, he links Toronto's defence to its offence. If he sits, expect that projection to drop.

Ja'Kobe Walter

Ja'Kobe Walter is projected for 11.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and 2.2 threes. With Leonard out, he is the wing who adds spacing to the offence around Barrett.

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome is projected for 20.9 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 2.4 threes. He is the top scorer on the Memphis side. With Pippen out, he carries the guard workload and the shot creation.

Cameron Boozer

Cameron Boozer is projected for 14.0 points, 8.4 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He is the best rebounder on the Grizzlies and the hub of their offence. Stewart's absence makes his work on the glass more important.

Cedric Coward

Cedric Coward is projected for 13.5 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.7 threes. His rebounding from the wing helps cover for the missing size. It is a useful secondary line for Memphis.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Toronto Raptors at 61%, with a projected score of 116.8 to 112.9. That points to a Raptors win by a few possessions, and it fits the model line of -3.9. The projected total is 229.6.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet. Until one does, there is no edge to measure and no total lean to give. The projected total of 229.6 is simply the number to hold against the market when it opens.

Statz pick: Toronto Raptors, model line -3.9.

The Raptors' injury list is the main risk to that read. If Barnes or Quickley is ruled out, the projection will move. Lines move before tip, so check the NBA odds and the full preview for the latest numbers.

MEM @ TOR questions

Who does the model favour in Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors?
The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors at 61%, with the Memphis Grizzlies at 39%. The model line is Raptors -3.9, based on a projected score of 116.8 to 112.9 in Toronto's favour.
What is the projected total for Grizzlies at Raptors?
The model projects a total of 229.6 points, with Toronto at 116.8 and Memphis at 112.9. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a spread been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is no market spread, total or moneyline to quote. The only line available is the Statz model line of Raptors -3.9.
Which injuries matter most for the Raptors?
Immanuel Quickley (hamstring) is day-to-day and questionable, and Scottie Barnes (adductor) is also day-to-day. Kawhi Leonard (knee) and Nate Bittle (foot) are out. Leonard is not expected back until the end of November.
Who is missing for the Memphis Grizzlies?
Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) and Isaiah Stewart (knee) are listed as out. Richie Saunders is recovering from a torn ACL. Pippen's absence thins the guard group and Stewart's thins the frontcourt.
How have the two teams played recently?
Toronto are 5-4 over their last nine games, with a 121-107 win at Milwaukee last time out. Memphis are 6-3 over nine games, but lost to Oklahoma City, Indiana and New Orleans in their most recent games.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Memphis Grizzlies or Toronto Raptors?

The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors with a 61% win probability, leaving the Memphis Grizzlies at 39%. Over their last five games the Toronto Raptors are 2-3 and the Memphis Grizzlies are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors?

No spread or total is posted yet for Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors?

For Memphis Grizzlies at Toronto Raptors, the model projects RJ Barrett for 21.7 points and Scottie Barnes for 17.8 points for the Toronto Raptors. For the Memphis Grizzlies it projects Ty Jerome for 20.9 points and Cameron Boozer for 14.0 points.