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Sun, Nov 88:00 PMETMilwaukee
Milwaukee BucksBucks
BOS1.23MIL5.41via Polymarket

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 8

Updated Nov 7, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

BOS

Statz pick

Boston Celtics to win

We give the Boston Celtics a 79% chance, against 21% for the Milwaukee Bucks. See the full projection →

79%
BOS to win
Polymarket1.23

The Statz model favours the Boston Celtics at 79% to beat the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday 8 November, with a model line of -10.8. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to compare. Kam Jones is day-to-day for the Bucks, and Devin Carter is out for Boston.

The Boston Celtics visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Sunday 8 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Boston the clear favourite at 79%, with the Bucks at 21%. The model line is Celtics -10.8. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market price to set against it. Here is why the model sees such a wide gap.

How the teams arrive

Milwaukee arrive at 1-8 across nine games this season, and they have lost five in a row. The one win was 110-102 over Indiana at home on 26 October. The defeats around it are the worry: 100-132 against Houston and 111-136 against Cleveland, both at home, and 107-121 against Toronto in their last outing. The Bucks average 109.7 points for and concede 122.1. That gap drives the model's view of this game.

Boston are 7-2 over the same stretch and have won four of their last five. They beat Charlotte 119-80 on the road in their last game, and they won 134-99 against Chicago at home. The losses came away at Houston (93-109) and Detroit (113-121). The Celtics average 114.8 points for and allow 105.1. They also beat Milwaukee 109-102 at home on 4 November, the only meeting between these teams so far this season. The Bucks stayed within reach that night, but it was still a loss, and it was another one in a long run.

Team news and lineups

The injury lists are short and neither one should move the rotation much. For Milwaukee, Kam Jones is day-to-day. He is a two-way player, and the report says it is unclear whether an ankle problem or his two-way status kept him out against Toronto. He is expected to start his year with the G League's Wisconsin Herd once fully fit. If he is out again, the Bucks lose a depth option, not a core piece, and the minutes stay with the main rotation.

For Boston, Devin Carter is out. He is working back from mononucleosis and has not made his season debut. He is also a two-way player, and he is expected to begin in Maine once healthy. The Celtics have played their games without him, and the 7-2 record shows it. His absence does not change how the rotation runs tonight.

The takeaway is that health is not what separates these teams. The gap comes from the results so far and how each side has scored and defended.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro projects to 18.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.6 threes. He is the Bucks' top scoring projection, and the offence leans on him to keep pace. If his shooting runs cold, there is little behind him to cover for it.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. projects to 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists. He gives Milwaukee a second scorer who also moves the ball. His work on the glass matters against a Boston team that can score quickly.

Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma projects to 11.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists, with 1.3 threes. His job is to stretch the floor and keep Boston honest. He is the third piece the Bucks need to find some offence.

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum projects to 24.7 points, 8.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.7 threes. That is the best line on the floor. He drives Boston's offence and the model expects him to control the game from the start.

Paul George

Paul George projects to 17.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.7 threes. He shares the top three-point projection with Tatum. With two wings that can score from range, the Bucks' defence has a lot to cover.

Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard projects to 14.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 2.2 threes. He supplies the guard scoring and the shooting off the ball. Boston get that depth without needing a big night from their stars.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Celtics. It gives them a 79% win probability and projects a margin that produces a line of Celtics -10.8, or Bucks +10.8. It has Boston scoring 117.3 points and Milwaukee 106.5, for a projected total of 223.9.

The market side is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no comparison between model and market to make. That also means no total lean for now. Check the NBA odds page once lines go up, and weigh the model total of 223.9 against whatever number appears.

The case for Boston is simple. They are 7-2 and defend well, and they beat this opponent on 4 November. Milwaukee are 1-8 and concede 122.1 a game. A margin this wide is a lot to ask in any game, so the price will matter when it arrives.

Statz pick: Boston Celtics to win, 79% model win probability, model line -10.8.

Lines move before tip, so check the price again close to the game.

BOS @ MIL questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Celtics at Bucks?
The model favours the Boston Celtics at 79%, against 21% for the Milwaukee Bucks. Its projected line is Celtics -10.8, with Boston projected for 117.3 points and Milwaukee for 106.5.
What is the projected total for Celtics vs Bucks?
The model projects a total of 223.9 points. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare against and no total lean until a line appears.
What time is Celtics at Bucks on 8 November?
Tip is at 8:00 PM ET on Sunday 8 November. The game is in Milwaukee, with the Bucks at home and the Boston Celtics travelling.
Who is injured for Celtics vs Bucks?
Kam Jones is day-to-day for the Milwaukee Bucks, and Devin Carter is out for the Boston Celtics. Both are two-way players, and both are expected to start their seasons in the G League once healthy.
How have the teams played this season?
Boston are 7-2 over nine games, averaging 114.8 points and allowing 105.1. Milwaukee are 1-8, averaging 109.7 and allowing 122.1. The Celtics won the meeting between them on 4 November, 109-102.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Boston Celtics or Milwaukee Bucks?

The Statz model favours the Boston Celtics with a 79% win probability, leaving the Milwaukee Bucks at 21%. Over their last five games the Milwaukee Bucks are 0-5 and the Boston Celtics are 4-1. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks?

No spread or total is posted yet for Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks?

For Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks, the model projects Tyler Herro for 18.7 points and Jaime Jaquez Jr. for 14.5 points for the Milwaukee Bucks. For the Boston Celtics it projects Jayson Tatum for 24.7 points and Paul George for 17.7 points.