Denver NuggetsNuggets
Sat, Nov 75:00 PMETIndiana
Indiana PacersPacers
DEN1.44IND3.28via Polymarket

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 7

Updated Nov 6, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 69% chance, against 31% for the Indiana Pacers. See the full projection →

69%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.44

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 69% win probability at the Indiana Pacers, with a model line of -6.6 and a projected total of 236.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to compare. The injury that matters most is Tyrese Haliburton, who is out for Indiana.

The Denver Nuggets visit the Indiana Pacers on Saturday 7 November, with tip at 5:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 69%, with a model line of -6.6. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Check the NBA odds page once books open.

How the teams arrive

Indiana is 3-6 across its last nine games, with the sequence W L L L L L W L W. The Pacers average 111.2 points for and 114.2 against. The results swing wildly. They won 136-109 at Brooklyn, then lost 90-98 to the Nets at home. They were beaten 125-145 at Miami and 105-121 by Dallas at home. The latest game was a 107-103 win at Memphis, a small step back toward level. They have lost four of their five home games shown here, so Saturday is a test of whether that run turns.

Denver is 4-3 across seven games, sequence W L W W L W L. The Nuggets average 115.4 points for and 114.7 against, a near-even margin. Their best results are a 128-109 win over Toronto in their latest game, a 141-135 win over New Orleans and a 127-120 win at Phoenix. The bad nights were just as sharp: 114-134 against Golden State and 84-96 at Oklahoma City. They also lost 110-118 to Portland at home. Denver arrives off the Toronto win and travels for this one.

Team news and lineups

Indiana carries the heavier list. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring injury and has a listed return date of 13 November. His absence moves playmaking onto Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam, and Quenton Jackson picks up extra minutes. T.J. McConnell is out with a hamstring issue and is week-to-week, which thins the guard group further. Ben Sheppard is out for months after surgery on a torn meniscus. Johnny Furphy is out as he recovers from an ACL injury, with no firm timetable. Kelly Oubre Jr. is day-to-day with a left calf contusion, and Saturday is his next chance to play. If he sits, Jackson and Jarace Walker take more of the wing minutes.

Denver has its own questions. DeMar DeRozan is day-to-day with lower-back spasms and has a return date of 7 November. He was a late scratch last time out, so his status is worth watching close to tip. Spencer Jones is out with a hamstring problem and can be treated as out indefinitely. Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and is listed to return on 29 November. Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are the candidates for his minutes.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam projects at 21.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.8 assists. With Haliburton out he is the focal point of the Indiana offence and the likeliest source of a steady scoring floor.

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard projects at 16.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 8.2 assists, with 2.1 threes. The assist number is the story. He takes over much of the creation duty and the model expects him to run it.

Ivica Zubac

Ivica Zubac projects at 11.6 points and 8.6 rebounds. He is Indiana's best answer to a big task on the glass, and his rebounding matters against a team built around its centre.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic projects at 24.4 points, 12.3 rebounds and 8.5 assists. That line is the biggest single reason the model leans Denver. Indiana has few ways to take away both his scoring and his passing.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray projects at 24.0 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists, with 3.8 threes. He is the outside threat that stretches a thin Indiana defence, and the three-point figure is the highest on either roster.

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon projects at 14.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists. He is the third scorer in a Denver group whose depth is stretched by injuries, so his output matters more than usual.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets. It gives them a 69% win probability, with the Indiana Pacers at 31%. The model line is Denver -6.6, built on projected scores of 121.4 for Denver and 114.8 for Indiana. The projected total is 236.1.

There is no comparison against the market to make, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game. That also means there is no total lean to give. The model total of 236.1 is a number to hold until books open, then compare. The same goes for the spread. Denver at -6.6 is the model's price, not a market one.

The case for Denver is simple. Indiana is without Haliburton, McConnell, Sheppard and Furphy, and Oubre is doubtful on a day-to-day basis. Denver has Jokic and Murray both projected above 24 points. The risk is DeRozan's status and Denver's own volatility, shown by the 84-96 loss at Oklahoma City.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets, 69% win probability, model line -6.6.

Lines move before tip, so check the number once it is posted.

DEN @ IND questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Nuggets at Pacers?
The model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 69% win probability, against 31% for the Indiana Pacers. Its projected score is Denver 121.4 to Indiana 114.8, which gives a model line of Denver -6.6.
What is the model total for Nuggets vs Pacers?
The model projects a total of 236.1 points. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with and no total lean can be given until a line is available.
Is Tyrese Haliburton playing for the Pacers on 7 November?
No. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring injury and has a listed return date of 13 November. Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam take on more playmaking, and Quenton Jackson is expected to see extra minutes.
Is DeMar DeRozan playing for the Nuggets?
DeMar DeRozan is day-to-day with lower-back spasms and has a return date of 7 November. He was a late scratch in his last game, so his status is worth checking close to the 5:00 PM ET tip.
What time is Nuggets at Pacers?
The game is on Saturday 7 November and tips at 5:00 PM ET. The Indiana Pacers are the home team and the Denver Nuggets are the visitors.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Denver Nuggets or Indiana Pacers?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 69% win probability, leaving the Indiana Pacers at 31%. Over their last five games the Indiana Pacers are 1-4 and the Denver Nuggets are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers?

No spread or total is posted yet for Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers?

For Denver Nuggets at Indiana Pacers, the model projects Pascal Siakam for 21.0 points and Andrew Nembhard for 16.1 points for the Indiana Pacers. For the Denver Nuggets it projects Nikola Jokic for 24.4 points and Jamal Murray for 24.0 points.