Washington WizardsWizards
Fri, Nov 67:00 PMETAtlanta
Atlanta HawksHawks
WAS3.28ATL1.44via Polymarket

Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 6

Updated Nov 5, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

ATL

Statz pick

Atlanta Hawks to win

We give the Atlanta Hawks a 74% chance, against 26% for the Washington Wizards. Our line is ATL -8.7. See the full projection →

74%
ATL to win
Polymarket1.44

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 74% to beat the Washington Wizards on Friday 6 November, with a model line of -8.7 and a model total of 232.4. No bookmaker has posted a line yet. The injury that matters is Jalen Johnson's ankle, which is listed as out for Atlanta.

The Washington Wizards visit the Atlanta Hawks on Friday 6 November, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Atlanta the favourite at 74%, with a model line of -8.7. The market has no line to compare against yet, because no bookmaker has posted one. This is a rematch, as Atlanta won in Washington on Wednesday.

How the teams arrive

Atlanta is 5-4 over its last nine games and averages 115.8 points for and 113.0 against. The Hawks have won their last two, both on the road: 120-105 at Washington on Wednesday and 108-104 at Indiana. The ceiling is high, with a 128-81 win at Charlotte and a 132-125 win at Orlando. The floor is low too: 99-121 at New Orleans, 117-129 against Miami and a pair of losses to Houston. Friday is a home game, and the Hawks are 2-1 in their three at home so far in this run.

Washington is 4-4 over its last eight and averages 108.9 points for and 109.0 against, a near-even scoring margin. The Wizards lost to Atlanta by 15 on Wednesday, but they won at Orlando 103-94 and beat Charlotte 95-79 at home. Their defence can hold up when the pace drops. Their other results show the opposite: a 111-121 loss at Cleveland and a 103-110 loss at Charlotte. They are away from home on Friday.

Team news and lineups

Atlanta carries the longer list, and it is the one that matters. Jalen Johnson is listed as out with a sprained ankle. His return date points to this game, so check the status closer to tip. Asa Newell is day-to-day with a left great toe hyperextension that ended his Wednesday night early. If Newell sits, Aaron Wiggins is the wing who picks up minutes.

The big-man rotation is thin. Jock Landale is out with a hip strain, so rookie Zuby Ejiofor should handle the No. 2 centre spot. Mouhamed Gueye is out after foot surgery. Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a torn ACL. That puts more weight on the starting centre's minutes.

Washington has four players out and none looks close to a return. Tristan Vukcevic is out with a hip injury, which means Deandre Ayton should see more minutes off the bench. Justin Champagnie is out after surgery on a fractured foot, with a target around the All-Star break. Reece Beekman has a shoulder injury and is set for re-evaluation in about three weeks, which thins the backcourt. Jamir Watkins is out with a torn ACL. Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington are the ones asked to cover the lost minutes.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is projected for 20.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 3.3 threes. He is the Hawks' top scorer in the model, and with Johnson out, the scoring load stays on him.

CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum is projected for 16.2 points, 3.1 rebounds and 3.6 assists, with 2.1 threes. He is the second creator in a shorthanded Atlanta group.

Onyeka Okongwu

Onyeka Okongwu is projected for 13.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 assists. With Landale out, he anchors the middle of the defence.

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is projected for 19.5 points and 9.9 rebounds, with 2.3 assists. He is the best matchup for Washington against a thin Atlanta frontcourt.

Trae Young

Trae Young is projected for 19.0 points, 2.8 rebounds and 8.2 assists, with 1.9 threes. Washington's offence runs through his playmaking, and a short bench makes that more true.

KyShawn George

KyShawn George is projected for 14.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.8 assists. He is the third scorer the Wizards need if the Hawks load up on Davis and Young.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them a 74% win probability and projects a team score of 120.6 against 111.8 for the Washington Wizards, which fits the -8.7 model line. Atlanta's Wednesday win and a stronger scoring profile support that read. Injuries on both sides are the main risk, and Atlanta's list, with Johnson and Newell in doubt, is the one that could shrink the gap.

The model total is 232.4. There is no market spread or total to compare it with, because no bookmaker has posted a line, so the market side of the comparison is missing. That means no total lean yet. Check the NBA odds page once lines go up.

Statz pick: Atlanta Hawks, 74% win probability, model line -8.7, model total 232.4.

Lines move before tip, so compare any number you find with the model line before you act.

WAS @ ATL questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Wizards at Hawks?
The model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 74%, with the Washington Wizards at 26%. It projects Atlanta to score 120.6 points to Washington's 111.8, which gives a model line of Hawks -8.7.
What is the model total for Wizards vs Hawks?
The model total is 232.4 points, built from 120.6 for the Hawks and 111.8 for the Wizards. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with and no total lean.
What time does Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks tip off?
The game is on Friday 6 November, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. Atlanta is the home team. Lines and injury statuses can change before tip, so check the latest news close to the start.
Which injuries matter most for this game?
Jalen Johnson's ankle is the key one for Atlanta, and he is listed as out. Asa Newell is day-to-day, and Jock Landale and Mouhamed Gueye are out. Washington is without Vukcevic, Watkins, Champagnie and Beekman.
How did the Hawks and Wizards do in their last meeting?
Atlanta won 120-105 at Washington on Wednesday. This is the rematch, played in Atlanta. The Hawks have also won their last two games overall, while the Wizards lost that game after wins over Orlando and Charlotte.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Washington Wizards or Atlanta Hawks?

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks with a 74% win probability, leaving the Washington Wizards at 26%. Over their last five games the Atlanta Hawks are 3-2 and the Washington Wizards are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks?

No spread or total is posted yet for Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. The Statz model makes the Atlanta Hawks 8.7-point favourites and projects a 232.4 total. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks?

For Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks, the model projects Nickeil Alexander-Walker for 20.3 points and CJ McCollum for 16.2 points for the Atlanta Hawks. For the Washington Wizards it projects Anthony Davis for 19.5 points and Trae Young for 19.0 points.