Utah JazzJazz
Fri, Nov 68:00 PMETDallas
Dallas MavericksMavericks
UTA3.51DAL1.40via Polymarket

Utah Jazz vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 6

Updated Nov 5, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

DAL

Statz pick

Dallas Mavericks to win

We give the Dallas Mavericks a 65% chance, against 35% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →

65%
DAL to win
Polymarket1.40

The Statz model favours the Dallas Mavericks at home, giving them a 65% win probability against the Utah Jazz, with a model line of -5.1 and a projected total of 232.7. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Jaren Jackson Jr., out for the Jazz with a torn MCL.

The Utah Jazz visit the Dallas Mavericks on Friday 6 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Dallas the favourite at 65%, with a model line of -5.1. The market has not spoken yet: no bookmaker has posted a line, so there is no spread to set against ours. Check the NBA odds page for updates.

How the teams arrive

Dallas sit at 4-4 over eight games this season, with the sequence L L W W W L W L. They average 112.1 points for and 112.3 against, so the margin is thin. The ceiling is clear: a 120-96 win over OKC and a 121-105 win at IND. The floor is just as clear: 106-122 against SAS and 100-115 against SAC, both at home. Their latest game was a 111-112 loss at SAS, a one-possession result.

Utah arrive at 1-7 over the same stretch, with the sequence L L L L L L W L. They average 107.8 points for and allow 119.0, the defensive number that stands out. The one win was a 120-119 home result over NOP. Since then they lost 97-119 at SAS, 90-112 at home to POR and 113-120 at NOP. That is six defeats in the last seven, and Utah now play on the road again.

Team news and lineups

Utah carry the heavier loss. Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL in his right knee and is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. That removes the star big man and leaves a hole up front. The expected fill is a timeshare of Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba. Jusuf Nurkic (foot) is also out and week-to-week, so Hayes remains the primary centre. Trey Alexander is out with a left knee bone bruise.

Dallas have their own list. Dereck Lively II (foot) is out and week-to-week. Daniel Gafford and Moussa Cisse should handle most of the work at the five, which means more minutes for Gafford. Santi Aldama (knee) has yet to make his season debut and is listed out, though Friday was named as his next opportunity. Max Christie (hip) is out after missing his first game of the season. Tarik Biberovic (heel) is still waiting on his NBA debut. Sergio De Larrea (knee) will be re-evaluated, and his absence should not shift the rotation much.

The net effect favours Dallas. Their absences hit depth and the rookies. Utah's hit the frontcourt core, against a team that already allows 119.0 points a game.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg projects to 22.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 1.1 threes. He is the focal point of the Dallas attack, and Utah's thinned frontcourt gives him room to attack the rim and create for others.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving projects to 22.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.8 threes. The three-point figure is the highest on the Dallas side. Against a Jazz team in a losing run, his shot-making is the quickest route to separation.

Daniel Gafford

Daniel Gafford projects to 7.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 0.1 threes. His line is modest, but with Lively out his minutes at the five matter for rim protection and rebounding.

Keyonte George

Keyonte George projects to 20.6 points, 3.7 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 1.9 threes. He is the Jazz's top scorer and primary creator in the model, and with Jackson out he carries more of the offence.

Lauri Markkanen

Lauri Markkanen projects to 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.1 threes. He leads Utah in threes and is the best answer to the frontcourt gap, whether he plays at power forward or at times at centre.

Airious Bailey

Airious Bailey projects to 13.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.6 threes. If Markkanen shifts to centre, Bailey can spend more time at power forward, so his role may grow.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Dallas Mavericks. It gives them a 65% win probability, against 35% for the Utah Jazz. It projects a score of 118.9 to 113.8 and a model line of -5.1 for Dallas. The projected total is 232.7.

We cannot compare any of that with the market. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so the model-versus-market comparison is empty because the market side is missing. For the same reason there is no total lean to give. A total of 232.7 is our number, not a view against a posted price.

The case for Dallas is simple. Utah are 1-7 with an average of 119.0 points allowed, and they have lost Jackson for 6-to-8 weeks. Dallas have injuries too, but they sit at 4-4 and play at home. Their form is uneven, with losses to SAS and SAC at home, so the margin is not a given.

Statz pick: Dallas Mavericks to win, 65% model win probability, model line -5.1.

Lines move before tip, so check the price once it is posted before you act on the model number.

UTA @ DAL questions

Who does the model favour in Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks?
The Statz model favours the Dallas Mavericks with a 65% win probability, against 35% for the Utah Jazz. Its model line is Dallas -5.1, based on a projected score of 118.9 to 113.8 in Dallas's favour.
What is the market line for Jazz vs Mavericks?
No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is no spread, total or moneyline to quote. Without a market price there is no model-versus-market comparison, and the model line of Dallas -5.1 stands alone for now.
What is the projected total for Jazz vs Mavericks?
The model projects a total of 232.7 points, with Dallas on 118.9 and Utah on 113.8. With no market total posted, there is no over or under lean yet. Compare 232.7 with the line once a bookmaker publishes one.
Which injury matters most for the Utah Jazz?
Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL in his right knee and is expected to miss 6-to-8 weeks. Jusuf Nurkic (foot) is also out. Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba are expected to share the big-man minutes.
How have the Jazz played this season?
Utah are 1-7 over eight games, with six losses in their last seven. They average 107.8 points for and concede 119.0. Their one win was 120-119 over NOP, and their latest game was a 113-120 loss at NOP.
How have the Mavericks played this season?
Dallas are 4-4 over eight games, averaging 112.1 points for and 112.3 against. They beat OKC 120-96 and IND 121-105, but lost 106-122 to SAS and 100-115 to SAC at home. Their latest game was a 111-112 loss at SAS.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Utah Jazz or Dallas Mavericks?

The Statz model favours the Dallas Mavericks with a 65% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 35%. Over their last five games the Dallas Mavericks are 3-2 and the Utah Jazz are 0-5. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks?

No spread or total is posted yet for Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks?

For Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks, the model projects Cooper Flagg for 22.3 points and Kyrie Irving for 22.0 points for the Dallas Mavericks. For the Utah Jazz it projects Keyonte George for 20.6 points and Lauri Markkanen for 20.1 points.