Miami HeatHeat
Thu, Nov 510:00 PMETGolden State
Golden State WarriorsWarriors
MIA2.53GSW1.65via Polymarket

Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 5

Updated Nov 4, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

MIA

Statz pick

Miami Heat to win

We give the Miami Heat a 52% chance, against 48% for the Golden State Warriors. See the full projection →

52%
MIA to win
Polymarket2.53

The Statz model favours the Miami Heat at 52% against 48% for the Golden State Warriors, a projected margin of 0.8 points on a model total of 239.4. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to compare. The Warriors carry the injury list, led by Gui Santos, who is day-to-day with a knee problem. The Heat report nobody.

The Miami Heat visit the Golden State Warriors on Thursday 5 November, with tip at 10:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Heat the favourite at 52%, with the Warriors at 48%. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to set against the model's -0.8. This is close to a coin flip, and the margin comes from a thin Warriors rotation and a shaky Heat defence cancelling out.

How the teams arrive

The Warriors are 5-3 over their first eight games and arrive on a five-game winning streak. They beat Denver 134-114 on the road, the Lakers 112-95 at home, the Clippers 124-112 and the Suns 116-113. Their three losses all came early: 105-127 at the Lakers, 108-111 to Memphis and 122-131 at Phoenix. They average 117.5 points for and 114.6 against, a positive gap and the sign of a side that has settled. They play at home tonight.

The Heat are 2-5 over seven games and come in off a 117-138 defeat at the Lakers. In between, they beat Indiana 145-125 at home and Atlanta 129-117 on the road. They also lost 106-131 to Minnesota and 111-128 to Detroit. Their scoring is fine at 118.1 per game, but they concede 123.9. That defensive gap is the main reason they are not a bigger favourite on the road.

Team news and lineups

The Heat have nobody on the injury report. That means full minutes for their usual rotation and no role changes to price in.

The Warriors are thinner. Gui Santos is day-to-day with a knee injury he has been managing since preseason. Coach Steve Kerr has said the team needs to get him right. Al Horford and Brandon Williams are also listed day-to-day. Williams had a left quad contusion, and Thursday against Miami was named as his next chance to play. Check the status of all three before tip. If Santos sits, his forward minutes shift to others in the rotation, and De'Anthony Melton is one who could pick up more work.

Three players are out for longer. Kristaps Porzingis is away from the team indefinitely, and the Warriors are exploring trades. Jimmy Butler is recovering from a torn right ACL, with a return possible between January and February. Moses Moody is working back from a ruptured left patellar tendon and could return between December and January. Without Butler and Moody, the Warriors have little wing depth.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry projects at 24.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 4.1 three-pointers. He is the centre of the Warriors' offence, and with so many wings out, shot creation runs through him.

Yaxel Lendeborg

Yaxel Lendeborg projects at 19.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists. He is the second scoring option in the model, and his size on the glass matters against a Heat front line that will push the pace.

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski projects at 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 3.6 assists. His all-round output helps cover for absent depth.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo projects at 23.2 points, 8.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists. He is the Heat's top scorer in the model and the main reason they are the favourite here. He adds almost nothing from three, at 0.3 makes.

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo projects at 17.9 points, 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He gives Miami a second big-man outlet, and his rebounding should hold up against a thin Warriors frontcourt.

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell projects at 12.0 points and 6.6 assists. He runs the Heat's offence, and his passing is the piece that keeps their spacing working on the road.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Miami Heat, with a 52% win probability against 48% for the Golden State Warriors. Its line is Heat -0.8, with the Warriors at +0.8. The projected score is Heat 120.1, Warriors 119.3, which gives a model total of 239.4.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread or a total, so the model is the only number available and there is no edge to measure. That also means no total lean yet. The model projects a high-scoring game, driven by a Heat defence that has conceded 123.9 per game. Wait for a posted total before deciding on a side of it.

The Heat's edge is slim, and the Warriors' injury list could swing it either way. Santos, Horford and Williams are the three to check.

Statz pick: Miami Heat -0.8 (model line), 52% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest on our NBA odds page and the full preview.

MIA @ GSW questions

Who is favoured in Miami Heat vs Golden State Warriors?
The Statz model favours the Miami Heat at 52%, with the Golden State Warriors at 48%. Its line is Heat -0.8, so the game is close to even. No bookmaker has posted a market line yet to compare with it.
What time is Heat vs Warriors on 5 November?
The game is on Thursday 5 November, with tip at 10:00 PM ET. The Golden State Warriors are at home and the Miami Heat are the visitors.
What is the model's projected score and total?
The model projects the Miami Heat at 120.1 points and the Golden State Warriors at 119.3. That gives a model total of 239.4. No market total has been posted yet, so there is nothing to compare it against.
Who is injured for the Golden State Warriors?
Gui Santos, Al Horford and Brandon Williams are listed day-to-day. Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are out. Santos has a knee injury, and Williams had a left quad contusion.
Do the Miami Heat have any injuries?
No. The Miami Heat have nobody on the injury report for this game, so their usual rotation should be available. That matters on the road against a Warriors side that has several players listed.
How have both teams started the season?
The Golden State Warriors are 5-3 across eight games and have won five in a row. The Miami Heat are 2-5 across seven games, having lost 117-138 at the Lakers in their latest outing.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Miami Heat or Golden State Warriors?

The Statz model favours the Miami Heat with a 52% win probability, leaving the Golden State Warriors at 48%. Over their last five games the Golden State Warriors are 5-0 and the Miami Heat are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors?

No spread or total is posted yet for Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors?

For Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors, the model projects Stephen Curry for 24.4 points and Yaxel Lendeborg for 19.4 points for the Golden State Warriors. For the Miami Heat it projects Giannis Antetokounmpo for 23.2 points and Bam Adebayo for 17.9 points.