Atlanta HawksHawks
Wed, Nov 47:00 PMETWashington
Washington WizardsWizards
ATL1.80WAS2.25via Polymarket

Atlanta Hawks vs Washington Wizards Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Updated Nov 3, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

ATL

Statz pick

Atlanta Hawks to win

We give the Atlanta Hawks a 66% chance, against 34% for the Washington Wizards. Our line is ATL -5.5. See the full projection →

66%
ATL to win
Polymarket1.80

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 66% to beat the Washington Wizards, with a model line of -5.5 and a projected total of 233.9. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Jalen Johnson's ankle, with the Wizards also watching Alexandre Sarr's knee.

The Atlanta Hawks visit the Washington Wizards on Wednesday 4 November, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Hawks the favourite at 66% to win, with a model line of -5.5. The market has no line yet, so that number stands alone for now.

How the teams arrive

The Wizards are 4-3 across their seven games, with a run of W W L L W L W, most recent first. They average 109.4 points for and 107.4 against. The best results are a 103-94 win at Orlando on 2 November and a 95-79 home win over Charlotte. The 111-121 loss at Cleveland is the one that stands out the other way. They are back at home here.

The Hawks are 4-4 across eight games, with a run of W L W L L L W W. They average 115.3 points for and 114.0 against. Their last outing was a 108-104 win at Indiana. Before that came a 99-121 loss at New Orleans. They also beat Charlotte 128-81 on the road and Cleveland 114-111 at home. Two losses to Houston sit in the same stretch. That is a volatile profile, but the scoring output is clearly higher than Washington's.

Team news and lineups

Atlanta's biggest question is Jalen Johnson. He left the loss to New Orleans with a left ankle sprain and is listed day-to-day, with this game his next chance to play. If he plays, the Hawks keep their main creator and rebounder. If he sits, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort and Asa Newell are the names in line for more minutes. Jock Landale is also day-to-day with a hip problem. Newell took a season-high 19 minutes in his absence, and that would repeat behind Onyeka Okongwu. Henri Veesaar is out for the season with a torn ACL. Mouhamed Gueye is out after foot surgery.

Washington has a longer list. Alexandre Sarr is day-to-day with a knee injury. If he is out, Deandre Ayton picks up the minutes and may move into the first unit. Anthony Gill is also day-to-day with a back issue, though his absence is not expected to change the rotation. Tristan Vukcevic is out with a hip injury, which also means more Ayton minutes off the bench. Justin Champagnie is out with a fractured foot, and the hope is a return around the All-Star break. Jamir Watkins is out with a torn ACL. Reece Beekman is out with a shoulder injury and thins the backcourt further.

The pattern is front-court depth against ball-handling depth. Washington is leaning on Ayton if Sarr cannot go. Atlanta's status hangs on one ankle.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis projects at 21.4 points, 10.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists. He is Washington's best path to a competitive night, especially if Sarr is limited and the glass needs covering.

Trae Young

Trae Young projects at 20.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 8.8 assists and 2.2 threes. The Wizards' offence runs through him, and his assist number is the engine behind their scoring projection of 114.2.

KyShawn George

KyShawn George projects at 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists. With so many wings and bigs out, his secondary creation matters more than the raw scoring suggests.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Nickeil Alexander-Walker leads the Hawks at 21.0 points, with 3.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 3.4 threes. That three-point volume is the clearest shot-making edge on the floor.

Jalen Johnson

Jalen Johnson projects at 18.9 points, 9.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists, but only if the ankle clears. He is the player who most moves the Hawks' number up or down.

CJ McCollum

CJ McCollum projects at 17.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.2 threes. He gives Atlanta a second shot creator and is the steadier option if Johnson is limited.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Atlanta Hawks. It gives them a 66% chance to win against 34% for the Washington Wizards, and projects a margin that makes the Hawks -5.5 on the road. Its score projection is Hawks 119.7, Wizards 114.2, for a total of 233.9.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether the model sees value in either direction, and we have no total lean. Once prices appear, check them against the numbers on our NBA odds page.

The main risk to the pick is health. Johnson's ankle and Sarr's knee both carry day-to-day tags, and both would shift the picture. Washington's scoring is steady at home, but Atlanta's output has been higher over its recent games.

Statz pick: Atlanta Hawks to win, model win probability 66%, model line -5.5.

Lines move before tip, so recheck the injury news and the price before you act.

ATL @ WAS questions

Who does the model favour in Hawks at Wizards?
The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks at 66% to win, against 34% for the Washington Wizards. Its projected margin gives the Hawks a model line of -5.5 on the road.
What is the projected total for Hawks vs Wizards?
The model projects a total of 233.9 points. It has the Hawks scoring 119.7 and the Wizards 114.2. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a market line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet. The model line of -5.5 for the Hawks is the only number available, and it should be checked against the market once prices appear.
Is Jalen Johnson playing for the Hawks?
Johnson is listed day-to-day with a left ankle sprain, and this game is his next chance to play. If he sits, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort and Asa Newell are candidates for more playing time.
What is the Wizards' injury situation?
Alexandre Sarr (knee) and Anthony Gill (back) are day-to-day. Tristan Vukcevic, Justin Champagnie, Jamir Watkins and Reece Beekman are out. If Sarr cannot play, Deandre Ayton is expected to take more minutes and may start.
How have the teams played recently?
The Wizards are 4-3 across seven games and beat Orlando 103-94 on 2 November. The Hawks are 4-4 across eight games and beat Indiana 108-104 in their latest outing, after losing 99-121 at New Orleans.

More NBA previews

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are subject to change.

Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Atlanta Hawks or Washington Wizards?

The Statz model favours the Atlanta Hawks with a 66% win probability, leaving the Washington Wizards at 34%. Over their last five games the Washington Wizards are 3-2 and the Atlanta Hawks are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards?

No spread or total is posted yet for Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. The Statz model makes the Atlanta Hawks 5.5-point favourites and projects a 233.9 total. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards?

For Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards, the board's headline props are Nickeil Alexander-Walker 9.5+ threes at 36.00, Jalen Johnson 14.5+ assists at 21.00 and Anthony Davis 44.5+ points at 29.00. For the Washington Wizards the model projects Anthony Davis for 20.5 points and Trae Young for 19.9 points.