Philadelphia 76ers76ers
Wed, Nov 47:00 PMETDetroit
Detroit PistonsPistons
PHI2.06DET1.94SpreadDET -1.5Total219.5via Polymarket

Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Updated Nov 3, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

DET

Statz pick

Detroit Pistons to win

We give the Detroit Pistons a 57% chance, against 43% for the Philadelphia 76ers. Our line is DET -2.4. See the full projection →

57%
DET to win
Polymarket1.94

The Statz model favours the Detroit Pistons at 57% to beat the Philadelphia 76ers on Wednesday 4 November. It makes Detroit -2.4 against a market line of -1.5, and projects 220.4 points against a total of 219.5. The injury that matters is Jalen Duren, who is out with a hamstring strain.

The Philadelphia 76ers visit the Detroit Pistons on Wednesday 4 November, with tip-off at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model favours Detroit at 57% to win. The market agrees on the side, making the Pistons -1.5 favourites. The model is a little firmer than the books, at -2.4, and it projects a total of 220.4 against a market line of 219.5.

How the teams arrive

Detroit is 6-1 across its seven games this season, with a run of W W W L W W W. The Pistons score 111.9 points and concede 100.3, and the defence is the story. They beat Charlotte 124-91 on the road and Brooklyn 110-94 away, and their only defeat was 97-111 at New York. They also won 106-93 at Philadelphia on 25 October, so they have already beaten this opponent once this season. Tonight they are at home, where they opened the season with a 121-113 win over Boston.

Philadelphia is 7-1 across eight games, with a run of W W W W L W W W. The 76ers average 110.9 points and allow 105.1, so they score at a similar rate to Detroit but give up more. Their best result was a 126-107 home win over Chicago. They also won tight games away at Charlotte, 109-104, and Indiana, 114-109. Their one loss was the 93-106 home defeat to Detroit on 25 October. Tonight they are on the road.

Team news and lineups

The biggest absence is Jalen Duren. He is out with a right hamstring strain suffered in the win over Miami, and he will be re-evaluated in two weeks, with a listed return date of 9 November. That removes Detroit's interior anchor and pushes minutes towards Paul Reed and John Collins. Expect more rebounding and rim work from both. Isaiah Joe is also listed as out with a hip issue, with a return date of 4 November. That is worth checking close to tip, because his absence thins the shooting depth behind the main creators.

Philadelphia is short of big men. Dominick Barlow is out with a lumbar spine bone stress response and has yet to make his season debut. Ariel Hukporti is out for the season with a ruptured right Achilles tendon. Both losses hurt the frontcourt rotation. Joel Embiid has to carry the minutes at centre, with little cover behind him if he gets into foul trouble.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham is projected for 23.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists and 1.8 threes. With Duren out, he is the main source of offence and playmaking for the Pistons. His assist number is the one to watch if Philadelphia sends help at him.

Duncan Robinson

Duncan Robinson is projected for 15.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 2.9 threes. His shooting spaces the floor for Cunningham. He is the Pistons' main three-point threat on the page.

John Collins

John Collins is projected for 12.5 points, 7.6 rebounds, 0.9 assists and 1.0 threes. He is one of the players absorbing the minutes Duren leaves behind. His rebounding matters against Embiid.

Tyrese Maxey

Tyrese Maxey is projected for 21.9 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.6 threes. He leads Philadelphia's perimeter scoring and is the most likely source of their three-point volume.

Jaylen Brown

Jaylen Brown is projected for 20.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.9 threes. He is a second scorer who also rebounds. Philadelphia needs that balance to keep pace with a strong Detroit defence.

Joel Embiid

Joel Embiid is projected for 20.6 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.3 threes. With Barlow and Hukporti out, his minutes and rebounding load are crucial. Detroit has to deal with him without Duren.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Edge3 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    LeBron James
    Under 6.5 Assists · 2/5 last 5 · 69.8%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    John Collins
    Under 0.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 47.8%
    Fanatics2.30
  • DET
    Detroit Pistons
    Moneyline · 57.4%
    DraftKings1.84
Fanatics7.87
Market 10.7%Statz 19.2%+8.5%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Detroit Pistons. It gives them a 57% chance of winning, with projected scores of 111.4 for Detroit and 109.0 for Philadelphia. Its line is Detroit -2.4 against a market spread of -1.5, a gap of 0.9 points in Detroit's favour. Detroit has won its last meeting with the 76ers, and its defence has been the best part of its start. Losing Duren trims that edge, but the model still prefers the home side.

On the total, the model projects 220.4 against a market line of 219.5. That is a gap of 0.9 points, and it leans to the over. Both teams score above 110 per game on average, which supports a total near the market number.

Statz pick: Detroit Pistons -1.5 at 1.88 with FanDuel. Lean: over 219.5 at 1.95 with BetMGM.

For a same game parlay to look at, the Edge slip combines LeBron James Under 6.5 Assists, John Collins Under 0.5 Threes and Game total Over 218.5 points. It is priced at 8.04 with Fanatics. See the Same Game Parlays page for the full slip.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest NBA odds and the injury news before you bet.

PHI @ DET questions

Who is favoured in Philadelphia 76ers vs Detroit Pistons?
The Detroit Pistons are favoured by both the model and the market. The Statz model gives Detroit a 57% chance of winning, and the market line has the Pistons at -1.5. The model's own line is a little firmer, at -2.4.
What is the spread for 76ers at Pistons on 4 November?
The market spread is Detroit Pistons -1.5, with the best home price at 1.88 with FanDuel and the best 76ers price at 1.95 with Ballybet. The model makes it Detroit -2.4, a gap of 0.9 points on the Pistons' side.
What is the total for Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons?
The market total is 219.5 points. The best over price is 1.95 with BetMGM and the best under price is 1.91 with FanDuel. The Statz model projects 220.4 points, a gap of 0.9, so it leans to the over.
Who is injured for the Detroit Pistons?
Jalen Duren is out with a right hamstring strain and will be re-evaluated in two weeks, with a listed return date of 9 November. Isaiah Joe is also listed as out with a hip issue. Paul Reed and John Collins pick up minutes.
Who is injured for the Philadelphia 76ers?
Dominick Barlow is out with a lumbar spine bone stress response and has not yet made his season debut. Ariel Hukporti is out for the season with a ruptured right Achilles tendon. Both absences leave Philadelphia thin in the frontcourt behind Joel Embiid.
How did the 76ers and Pistons do the last time they met this season?
Detroit won 106-93 at Philadelphia on 25 October. It was the 76ers' only loss in their first eight games this season. Tonight the Pistons are at home, and the model still favours them at 57%.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Philadelphia 76ers or Detroit Pistons?

The Statz model favours the Detroit Pistons with a 57% win probability, leaving the Philadelphia 76ers at 43%. Bet365 leans the other way, pricing the Philadelphia 76ers as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is -127 for the Detroit Pistons and +106 for the Philadelphia 76ers.

What is the spread and total for Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons?

Bet365 lists the Detroit Pistons at +1.0 with the total at 219.0 for Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons. The Statz model makes the Detroit Pistons 2.4-point favourites and projects a 220.2 total. That total is 1.2 points above the market number, so the model leans to the over.

Which player props stand out for Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons?

For Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons, the board's headline props are Cade Cunningham 49.5+ points at 36.00, LeBron James 9.5+ assists at 5.50 and LeBron James 9.5+ rebounds at 6.50. For the Detroit Pistons the model projects Cade Cunningham for 22.1 points and Duncan Robinson for 14.4 points.