Indiana PacersPacers
Wed, Nov 48:00 PMETMemphis
Memphis GrizzliesGrizzlies
IND3.77MEM1.36via Polymarket

Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 4

Updated Nov 3, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

MEM

Statz pick

Memphis Grizzlies to win

We give the Memphis Grizzlies a 67% chance, against 33% for the Indiana Pacers. See the full projection →

67%
MEM to win
Polymarket1.36

The model favours the Memphis Grizzlies at 67% to beat the Indiana Pacers, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and a total of 234.7. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The Pacers are badly depleted, with Tyrese Haliburton out until at least 13 November.

The Indiana Pacers visit the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday 4 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Memphis the favourite at 67% to win, with a projected home margin of 5.9 points. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Our NBA odds page will show one when it arrives.

How the teams arrive

Memphis are 6-1 over their last seven games, with a sequence of L W W W W W W. They average 123.0 points for and 110.1 against. The standout scores are a 136-105 win over SAC and a 124-103 win at POR. The one loss was a narrow 134-135 defeat at home to NOP on Monday. They are at home again here.

Indiana are 2-6 over their last eight, and have lost five of the last six. They average 111.8 points for and 115.6 against. The low point was a 125-145 loss at MIA, and Indiana also lost 90-98 at home to BKN and 104-108 at home to ATL on Monday. The best result was a 136-109 win at BKN. They now travel for a road game.

Team news and lineups

Memphis have two day-to-day names. Quinten Post has an ankle sprain and missed Monday against the Pelicans. Scotty Pippen Jr. has lower-back soreness and also missed Monday. Both could return on Wednesday. If Pippen sits again, Cam Spencer is likely to see more time off the bench.

Indiana's list is much longer, and it is the story of this game. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring injury for at least the next two weeks. Ivica Zubac (ankle) and T.J. McConnell (hamstring) are both listed out, with a return date of 9 November. Ben Sheppard and Johnny Furphy are out long term.

Several others are day-to-day after resting on Monday. They are Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith and Kelly Oubre Jr. Larry Nance Jr. is listed day-to-day with an illness. Obi Toppin has a back issue. Monday's report had Indiana down to eight active players. If the rest days were one-off, the roster is stronger on Wednesday. If not, minutes fall to Quenton Jackson, Jarace Walker and Kobe Brown.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Ty Jerome

Ty Jerome is projected for 22.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.9 threes. He leads Memphis in scoring and is the main creator in the projection.

Cameron Boozer

Cameron Boozer is projected for 17.5 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists. A double-double line against a thin Indiana frontcourt is the key matchup.

Cedric Coward

Cedric Coward is projected for 14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 2.9 assists. His rebounding adds to Memphis' edge on the glass.

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam is projected for 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists. He is Indiana's top scorer in the projection, but he is day-to-day after resting on Monday.

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard is projected for 15.5 points, 2.9 rebounds and 7.6 assists. With Haliburton out, he carries the playmaking load if he plays.

Jarace Walker

Jarace Walker is projected for 11.2 points, 6.0 rebounds and 2.8 assists. Injury reports point to a heavy workload for him in this shorthanded frontcourt.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Memphis Grizzlies. It gives them 67% and a line of -5.9, with team scores of 120.3 for Memphis and 114.4 for Indiana. That makes a projected total of 234.7. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total yet, so we cannot say whether the model finds value against the market. The total lean has to wait for a posted number too.

The case for Memphis is simple. They are 6-1 in their last seven and at home. Indiana have lost five of their last six and have a long injury list. The risk is that Indiana's rested players return, which would narrow the gap.

Statz pick: Memphis Grizzlies, 67% win probability, model line -5.9.

Lines move before tip, so check the injury news and the posted numbers again close to start time.

IND @ MEM questions

Who does the model favour in Pacers at Grizzlies?
The Statz model favours the Memphis Grizzlies at 67% to win, against 33% for the Indiana Pacers. Its projected home margin is 5.9 points, which gives a model line of -5.9 for Memphis.
What is the projected total for Pacers vs Grizzlies?
The model projects a total of 234.7 points, with 120.3 for the Memphis Grizzlies and 114.4 for the Indiana Pacers. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a market line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker had posted a line when this preview was built. We do not quote a spread, total or moneyline. The model line is Memphis -5.9, and the NBA odds page will carry market prices once they appear.
Is Tyrese Haliburton playing for the Pacers?
No. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss at least the next two weeks. His listed return date is 13 November. Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam are expected to take on more playmaking.
How have the Grizzlies played recently?
Memphis are 6-1 over their last seven games, with a sequence of L W W W W W W. They average 123.0 points for and 110.1 against. Their only loss was 134-135 at home to NOP on Monday.
Which Memphis players are day-to-day?
Quinten Post (ankle) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (back) are day-to-day for the Memphis Grizzlies. Both missed Monday's game against the Pelicans, and both have a possible return on Wednesday against the Pacers.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Indiana Pacers or Memphis Grizzlies?

The Statz model favours the Memphis Grizzlies with a 67% win probability, leaving the Indiana Pacers at 33%. Over their last five games the Memphis Grizzlies are 4-1 and the Indiana Pacers are 0-5. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies?

No spread or total is posted yet for Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies?

For Indiana Pacers at Memphis Grizzlies, the model projects Ty Jerome for 21.7 points and Cameron Boozer for 16.7 points for the Memphis Grizzlies. For the Indiana Pacers it projects Pascal Siakam for 20.0 points and Andrew Nembhard for 14.8 points.