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Fri, Nov 68:00 PMETMilwaukee
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Toronto Raptors vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 6

Updated Nov 5, with the latest lineups and odds

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Statz pick

Toronto Raptors to win

We give the Toronto Raptors a 73% chance, against 27% for the Milwaukee Bucks. See the full projection →

73%
TOR to win
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The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors at 73% to beat the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday 6 November, with a model line of -8.1 and a projected total of 230.0. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Kawhi Leonard, who is out for Toronto.

The Toronto Raptors visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday 6 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Toronto the favourite at 73% and sets the line at Raptors -8.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

Milwaukee is in poor form. The Bucks are 1-7 across their eight games this season and have lost four in a row, most recently 109-102 at Boston. The score reads 102-109 from their side. Their one win came at home against IND, 110-102. The defence is the problem: they allow 122.3 points a game and score 110.0. Home games against CLE (111-136) and HOU (100-132) were the heaviest defeats.

Toronto is 4-4 and has been uneven on the road. The Raptors score 117.9 and concede 113.5 per game. Their best results were home wins over CHI (135-92) and ORL (129-99). Away from home they beat LAC 125-118, but lost 109-128 at DEN and 94-117 at MIN. They then lost 125-131 at LAL. Tonight is another road game, and the scoring profile still points to a higher-scoring night than Milwaukee usually produces.

Team news and lineups

Milwaukee has one name on the report. Kam Jones is listed out with an ankle issue after missing his first game of the season at Boston. He is not a rotation player, so the Bucks lose little in minutes or roles even if he stays out.

Toronto's list is longer, and the key name is Kawhi Leonard. He is out with a left knee issue, will be re-evaluated by 10 November, and is unlikely to return before the end of November. That removes a major scorer, so Toronto's offence leans on its guards and wings for shots and ball handling. The model still rates the Raptors well ahead, which says a lot about the gap in the two sides' recent form and defence.

Nate Bittle is also out with a foot injury and has no timetable to return. He is not expected to crack the rotation, so his absence changes little.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro is projected for 19.4 points, 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.4 threes. He is Milwaukee's main source of shot creation. If he is off, the Bucks have little else to lean on.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is projected for 15.4 points, 5.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He gives the Bucks a second scorer who can also help on the glass. His contribution matters against a Toronto side that scores freely.

Ryan Rollins

Ryan Rollins is projected for 13.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.7 threes. Playmaking from the guard spot is where Milwaukee can slow the game down, and Rollins is the one projected to do it.

RJ Barrett

RJ Barrett leads Toronto with a projected 21.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 2.1 threes. With Leonard out, he carries the heaviest scoring load on the visiting side.

Scottie Barnes

Scottie Barnes is projected for 20.1 points, 7.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists. He is the best all-round player in the game on the model's numbers, and he affects both the glass and the passing lanes.

Immanuel Quickley

Immanuel Quickley is projected for 17.0 points, 5.4 assists and 3.0 threes. His outside shooting stretches a Milwaukee defence that is already giving up 122.3 points a game.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Toronto Raptors. It gives them a 73% chance to win and projects a margin of 8.1 points, which sets the model line at Raptors -8.1. The projected score is Toronto 119.1, Milwaukee 110.9, for a model total of 230.0.

The market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no comparison between the model and the market to make yet. Until a line appears, the model's own numbers are all we have, and a total lean cannot be set against a market number. Both teams' recent scoring and Milwaukee's defence suggest a game with plenty of points, but that is context, not an edge.

Statz pick: Toronto Raptors, model line -8.1, 73% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest NBA odds and the full preview once a market is posted.

TOR @ MIL questions

Who does the model favour in Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks?
The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors at 73%, with the Milwaukee Bucks at 27%. The model line is Raptors -8.1, based on a projected score of Toronto 119.1 to Milwaukee 110.9 for the game on Friday 6 November.
What is the projected total for Raptors vs Bucks?
The model projects a total of 230.0 points, built from Toronto at 119.1 and Milwaukee at 110.9. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with at this stage.
What time does Raptors at Bucks tip off?
Tip is at 8:00 PM ET on Friday 6 November, with the game played in Milwaukee. The Toronto Raptors are the visitors and the Milwaukee Bucks are the home side.
Who is injured for the Toronto Raptors?
Kawhi Leonard is out with a left knee issue and will be re-evaluated by 10 November, with a return unlikely before the end of November. Nate Bittle is also out with a foot injury and has no timetable to return.
How have the Milwaukee Bucks played this season?
The Bucks are 1-7 in their eight games this season and have lost four in a row. They score 110.0 points and concede 122.3 per game. Their only win was 110-102 at home against IND.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Toronto Raptors or Milwaukee Bucks?

The Statz model favours the Toronto Raptors with a 73% win probability, leaving the Milwaukee Bucks at 27%. Over their last five games the Milwaukee Bucks are 1-4 and the Toronto Raptors are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks?

No spread or total is posted yet for Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks?

For Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks, the model projects Tyler Herro for 19.4 points and Jaime Jaquez Jr. for 15.4 points for the Milwaukee Bucks. For the Toronto Raptors it projects RJ Barrett for 21.6 points and Scottie Barnes for 20.1 points.