Washington WizardsWizards
Sat, Nov 78:00 PMETOklahoma City
Oklahoma City ThunderThunder
WAS4.26OKC1.31via Polymarket

Washington Wizards vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 7

Updated Nov 6, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

OKC

Statz pick

Oklahoma City Thunder to win

We give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 77% chance, against 23% for the Washington Wizards. See the full projection →

77%
OKC to win
Polymarket1.31

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at home over the Washington Wizards, giving them a 77% win probability and a model line of -9.8. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Jalen Williams, one of six Thunder players ruled out.

The Washington Wizards visit the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday 7 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Thunder the favourite at 77%, with a model line of -9.8. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Check the NBA odds page once books open.

How the teams arrive

Oklahoma City arrive at 6-2 over their first eight games, with the sequence W W L L W W W W. They average 110.0 points for and 108.8 against. The two losses were heavy: 98-119 at Houston and 96-120 at Dallas. Since then they have beaten Cleveland twice, 117-112 away and 124-116 at home. Earlier home wins included 96-84 over Denver and 125-114 over Phoenix. The Thunder play at home here.

Washington sit at 4-4 over the same stretch, with the sequence L W W L L W L W. They average 108.9 points for and 109.0 against, a near-even scoring profile. The best results were a 95-79 win over Charlotte and a 128-116 win over Milwaukee. The latest outing was a 105-120 home loss to Atlanta. The Wizards are on the road here, and the schedule shows them in Atlanta on 6 November.

Team news and lineups

Oklahoma City carry the longer list, and it is a heavy one. Jalen Williams is out after ankle surgery and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season. Cason Wallace is out after shoulder surgery and is expected to miss most, if not all, of the season. Chet Holmgren is out with a patellar tendon tear and faces at least 8-10 weeks. Thomas Sorber and Nikola Topic are both out and week-to-week. Jaylin Williams is out with back spasms and has been ruled out for a second straight game.

The effect is on minutes and size. With Holmgren and Jaylin Williams both out, the frontcourt rotation thins. Reports point to Kenrich Williams, Aday Mara and Micah Peavy taking larger roles. The backcourt loses ball handling and wing depth too, so the load on the remaining guards rises.

Washington are also thin. Tristan Vukcevic is out with a hip impingement, with a listed return date of 9 November. Justin Champagnie is out after foot surgery, with a return hoped for around the All-Star break. Reece Beekman is out with an AC joint injury and is due to be re-evaluated in about three weeks, which limits backcourt depth. Jamir Watkins is out with a torn ACL. Felix Okpara is doubtful, listed on a G League two-way assignment. Vukcevic's absence should mean more bench minutes for Deandre Ayton.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 31.2 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 2.1 threes. With so many teammates out, he is the Thunder's scoring and creation hub, and the model gives him a big share of the offence.

Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell is projected for 15.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.0 threes. He is the main secondary creator, and his workload matters more with Oklahoma City's wing depth gone.

Isaiah Hartenstein

Isaiah Hartenstein is projected for 9.0 points, 10.1 rebounds and 3.2 assists. With Holmgren and Jaylin Williams out, he is the frontcourt anchor, and his rebounding and passing keep the Thunder's defence organised.

Trae Young

Trae Young is projected for 18.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 2.5 threes. He is Washington's engine, and their route to staying in this game runs through his shooting and passing.

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is projected for 16.9 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.0 assists. He is the Wizards' best interior presence, both as a scorer and on the glass, and he matters most if Oklahoma City's frontcourt is stretched.

KyShawn George

KyShawn George is projected for 13.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.3 threes. He gives Washington a third source of scoring and some perimeter spacing around Young and Davis.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Oklahoma City Thunder. It gives them a 77% win probability and a projected margin that matches the model line of -9.8. It projects the score at 117.4 to 107.6, a model total of 225.0. The Washington Wizards come in at 23%.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether the model's -9.8 or its 225.0 total sits above or below the market, and we have no total lean to give. The Thunder's injury list is the main risk to the number, since six players are out. The model still sees a clear gap in quality and form.

Statz pick: Oklahoma City Thunder, model line -9.8, 77% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the current NBA odds and the full preview before you bet.

WAS @ OKC questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Wizards at Thunder?
The model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 77%, with the Washington Wizards at 23%. The model line is Thunder -9.8, and the projected score is 117.4 to 107.6 in Oklahoma City's favour.
What is the model total for Wizards vs Thunder?
The model total is 225.0, built from 117.4 projected points for the Thunder and 107.6 for the Wizards. No bookmaker total has been posted yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
What is the market line for this game?
No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is no spread, total or moneyline to quote. The model line is Thunder -9.8, and the NBA odds page will show prices once books open.
Which Thunder players are out?
Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic and Jaylin Williams are all listed as out. Williams, Wallace and Holmgren face long absences, while Sorber and Topic are week-to-week.
Who is the top projected scorer in the game?
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Thunder is projected for 31.2 points, 4.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists. On the Wizards' side, Trae Young leads the projection with 18.3 points and 7.8 assists, followed by Anthony Davis at 16.9 points.
What time is Wizards at Thunder?
The game is on Saturday 7 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are at home, and the Wizards are on the road after a game in Atlanta on 6 November.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Washington Wizards or Oklahoma City Thunder?

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 77% win probability, leaving the Washington Wizards at 23%. Over their last five games the Oklahoma City Thunder are 3-2 and the Washington Wizards are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder?

No spread or total is posted yet for Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder?

For Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder, the model projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 31.2 points and Ajay Mitchell for 15.4 points for the Oklahoma City Thunder. For the Washington Wizards it projects Trae Young for 18.3 points and Anthony Davis for 16.9 points.