Orlando Magic vs Golden State Warriors Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 7

The Warriors are 6-3 over their nine games this season and arrive on a six-game winning run. They beat the Heat 120-100 at home on Thursday and hit Denver for 134-114 on the road. Both losses on the other end of the run came early: 105-127 at the Lakers, 108-111 against Memphis and 122-131 at Phoenix. Over the nine games they average 117.8 points for and concede 113.0. They play this one at home, where their recent results have been strong.

The Magic are 2-6 from eight games and have lost their last three. The latest was 104-117 at Phoenix, after defeats to Washington (94-103) and Boston (97-108) at home. Their two wins came away: 121-114 at Toronto and 111-102 at the Knicks. They also lost 99-129 at Toronto in between, which shows how wide their results swing. Orlando averages 105.5 points for and concedes 115.0. That is a scoring gap of nearly ten points per game before the injury list is even considered.

Orlando's list is the longer and the more damaging. Paolo Banchero is out with a right high-ankle sprain, which removes the Magic's primary creator. Jalen Suggs is also out with a bone bruise in his right knee. That empties the backcourt of its main defender and pushes more ball handling onto Anthony Black. Noah Penda is out with a partially torn hamstring, which could open a few minutes for Tristan Da Silva. Jonathan Isaac and Izaiyah Nelson are also out, though neither is a regular rotation piece.

With Banchero and Suggs both gone, the offensive load falls on Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane. Fewer shot creators means more possessions that end in contested looks late in the clock. That fits a team scoring 105.5 a game.

Golden State are missing depth, but not their core. Kristaps Porzingis is out and away from the team, and the club is exploring a trade, so he is not part of tonight's plans. Jimmy Butler is recovering from a torn right ACL, and Moses Moody is working back from a ruptured patellar tendon. Both are long-term absences, so the wing rotation is already set around them. Gui Santos is listed as day-to-day with a knee problem. If he sits, Will Richard and Georges Niang are the candidates for extra minutes.

The model takes the Golden State Warriors. It gives them a 62% chance to win, with a projected margin that produces a model line of -4.3. It projects the Warriors for 115.6 points and the Orlando Magic for 111.3, a model total of 226.9.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing half. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the model sees value against a number. We also cannot give a total lean against a posted line. The projection says 226.9, which fits a Warriors side scoring 117.8 and an Orlando side scoring 105.5 with its creators out. Wait for a posted total before acting on it.

Statz pick: Golden State Warriors at the model line of -4.3, 62% win probability, model total 226.9.

Lines move before tip, and so does injury news, especially with Santos listed as day-to-day. Re-check both before you decide.