Utah Jazz vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 8

Minnesota are 7-3 over their last 10, with a run of W W W L W L L W W W. They average 118.4 points for and allow 107.7. The recent wins are the kind that hold up: 115-109 at New Orleans, 117-107 at Houston and 112-100 over Milwaukee at home. Earlier they beat the Clippers 127-101 and won 131-106 at Miami. The losses came by small margins, 125-127 at Cleveland and 114-119 against Golden State, apart from 111-121 at San Antonio. They are at home here.

Utah are 1-8 across nine games, and the run reads L L L L L L L W L. They score 106.9 and concede 118.2. The one win was 120-119 over New Orleans. The recent losses have been heavy: 97-119 at San Antonio, 90-112 against Portland and 100-112 at Dallas. They are on the road, and the defensive numbers are the main concern against a side scoring in the high 110s.

Minnesota's biggest absence is Anthony Edwards. He had a successful arthroscopic knee procedure and is listed with a return date of 21 December. He was averaging 33.3 points across four appearances, so the scoring and shot creation he leaves behind are substantial. That load now spreads across the rest of the perimeter group.

Donte DiVincenzo remains out as he recovers from a torn Achilles, and Minnesota has set no timetable for his return. Terrence Shannon Jr. (hip) is also listed out, which thins the wing minutes. Joan Beringer is out with a nasal fracture, though he may be able to play through it in a mask later. Trey Lyles stands to gain minutes while he is absent.

Utah's problems are in the frontcourt. Jaren Jackson Jr. has a torn MCL and faces 6-to-8 weeks out. The expected cover is a timeshare of Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski and Mo Bamba, which asks a lot of a thin big-man group. Jusuf Nurkic is out with a toe injury and will be re-evaluated in two weeks. Trey Alexander is out with a left knee bone bruise.

With rim protection and rebounding so stretched, Utah could struggle to defend the paint. That is a problem for a team already allowing 118.2 a game.

The model takes Minnesota. It gives the Timberwolves a 78% win probability, a line of -10.4 and a projected score of 119.5 to 109.1, which makes a total of 228.5. The home side's recent form, scoring 118.4 while allowing 107.7, fits that picture. Utah's run of one win in nine, and their injuries up front, point the same way.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the model line is above or below the market, and we have no total lean. Check the NBA odds page once lines go up and set the 228.5 and -10.4 against them.

Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 78% model win probability, model line -10.4.

Lines move before tip, and Edwards' absence is already known, so watch for late news on either side.