Cleveland Cavaliers vs Charlotte Hornets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 9

Charlotte arrive in poor form. The Hornets are 3-7 over their last 10, and the most recent run is all losses. They average 96.3 points for and concede 110.2. The scores tell the story: 80-119 at home to BOS, 91-124 at home to DET and 81-128 at home to ATL. There have been wins, including 115-110 over MIA and 110-103 over WAS, but the defence has leaked and the offence has gone cold. Home court has not helped much so far.

Cleveland are 5-5 over the same span and scoring freely. The Cavaliers average 117.0 points for and allow 114.1. They beat MIL 136-111 away and PHI 119-95 at home, and they edged MIN 127-125. The latest result was a 97-109 home loss to NYK, and they also dropped both games against OKC, 112-117 and 116-124. They are a team that scores plenty and gives plenty back, which suits a matchup against a side that struggles to put points up.

Charlotte carry the longer list. Brandon Miller (groin) is day-to-day, and the coach said more information would come by Monday. If he sits, the scoring load shifts to Coby White and Naz Reid, with more minutes for Tidjane Salaun and Sion James. Moussa Diabate (quadriceps) is also day-to-day, which matters for frontcourt depth. Ryan Kalkbrenner is the name flagged for extra work at centre if he is out.

Kon Knueppel (hamstring), Grant Williams (hamstring) and Dennis Schroder (thigh) are listed as out. Schroder's absence leaves ball handling thin and pushes White's minutes up. Knueppel's loss removes a shooter, and Grayson Allen becomes more important on the perimeter.

Cleveland are not healthy either. Jarrett Allen (knee), Jaylon Tyson (ankle) and Sam Merrill (elbow) are all listed as out. With Allen sidelined, Evan Mobley continues to play centre and Mario Hezonja moves into a forward role. Tyrese Proctor and Meleek Thomas pick up wing minutes with Tyson and Merrill out. These are the reports as they stand, and status can change before tip.

The model takes Cleveland. It gives the Cavaliers a 63% win probability and a -4.5 line, with the Hornets at 37% and +4.5. The projected score is 112.7 to 108.2, and the model total is 220.9. The reasoning is simple: Cleveland score at 117.0 per game, Charlotte concede 110.2, and the Hornets have lost heavily at home with a thin roster.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so there is no total lean to give. Once a line appears, compare it with the model figures of -4.5 and 220.9 before you act.

Statz pick: Cleveland Cavaliers, 63% to win, model line -4.5.

Lines move before tip, and injury news on Miller and Diabate could shift the picture.