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Mon, Nov 98:30 PMETHouston
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DEN2.67HOU1.60via Polymarket

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 9

Updated Nov 8, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

HOU

Statz pick

Houston Rockets to win

We give the Houston Rockets a 59% chance, against 41% for the Denver Nuggets. See the full projection →

59%
HOU to win
Polymarket1.60

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 59% to beat the Denver Nuggets, with a model line of -3.0 and a projected total of 226.7. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Clint Capela, who is out again with a sprained ankle.

The Denver Nuggets visit the Houston Rockets on Monday 9 November, with tip at 8:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes Houston the favourite at 59% and sets its line at -3.0. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

Houston is 7-3 over its last 10 and arrives off a 99-102 loss at Phoenix. A 107-117 home defeat to Minnesota came before that. Before those two the Rockets won five straight, including 109-93 over Boston, 119-98 over Oklahoma City and 132-100 at Milwaukee. They average 116.0 points for and 107.0 against over the 10 games. Houston is at home tonight.

Denver is 5-3 across its eight games and comes in off a 114-102 win at Indiana. Before that came a 128-109 home win over Toronto. The Nuggets also lost 110-118 to Portland and 114-134 to Golden State at home. They average 115.3 points for and 113.1 against. Their defence has been the looser of the two, and they are on the road.

Team news and lineups

Houston is thin at centre. Clint Capela is out with a sprained right ankle and has missed three straight. Steven Adams is out with a right soleus strain, has not played since 23 October and has no timetable to return. Oscar Tshiebwe is expected to see more minutes until one of them is back. That leaves the Rockets lighter on rim protection and rebounding against Denver.

Denver lists Julian Strawther as out with a left knee sprain. He will be re-evaluated in six weeks. Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are the candidates for his minutes. The Nuggets' main rotation is otherwise intact on the injury report.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant is projected for 21.6 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.8 assists. He leads Houston in scoring, and with the big men out the Rockets lean on him for shot creation.

Alperen Sengun

Alperen Sengun is projected for 19.9 points, 8.2 rebounds and 6.1 assists. With Capela and Adams out, he is the centre of Houston's interior play and carries the rebounding load.

Jabari Smith Jr.

Jabari Smith Jr. is projected for 15.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.6 threes. His shooting spaces the floor around Sengun and Durant.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 22.9 points, 10.8 rebounds and 7.8 assists. Against a Houston front line missing two bigs, he is the matchup that drives Denver's chances.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 22.3 points, 5.1 assists and 3.3 threes. He is Denver's main perimeter scorer, and the threes give the Nuggets a route to keep pace.

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon is projected for 13.2 points and 4.8 rebounds. He is Denver's third-highest projected scorer and adds rebounding beside Jokic.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Houston Rockets at 59%, with Denver at 41%. Its line is Houston -3.0 and it projects 114.8 points for Houston and 111.9 for Denver, a total of 226.7. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total yet, so there is no model-versus-market gap to measure. The market is the missing piece. Without a total to compare, there is no total lean either.

Houston's home edge and recent form back the call. Denver's defence and the Rockets' lack of size keep it from being a wide one.

Statz pick: Houston Rockets, 59% win probability, model line -3.0.

Lines move before tip. Check the latest NBA odds once books post a number.

DEN @ HOU questions

Who does the model favour, Rockets or Nuggets?
The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets at 59%, with the Denver Nuggets at 41%. Its line is Houston -3.0, and it projects Houston to score 114.8 points to Denver's 111.9.
What is the projected total for Nuggets at Rockets?
The model projects a total of 226.7 points, built from 114.8 for the Houston Rockets and 111.9 for the Denver Nuggets. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Are there odds for this game yet?
No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is no market spread, total or moneyline to quote. The model line is Houston -3.0, and the model total is 226.7. Check the odds page closer to tip.
Who is injured for the Houston Rockets?
Clint Capela is out with a sprained right ankle and has missed three straight games. Steven Adams is also out with a right soleus strain and has no timetable to return. Oscar Tshiebwe is expected to see more minutes.
Who is injured for the Denver Nuggets?
Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and will be re-evaluated in six weeks. Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are candidates to pick up the minutes in the meantime.
What time is Nuggets at Rockets on 9 November?
Tip is at 8:30 PM ET on Monday 9 November in Houston. The Houston Rockets are at home against the Denver Nuggets, and the Statz model has the Rockets at 59% to win.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Denver Nuggets or Houston Rockets?

The Statz model favours the Houston Rockets with a 59% win probability, leaving the Denver Nuggets at 41%. Over their last five games the Houston Rockets are 2-3 and the Denver Nuggets are 4-1. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets?

No spread or total is posted yet for Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets?

For Denver Nuggets at Houston Rockets, the model projects Kevin Durant for 21.6 points and Alperen Sengun for 19.9 points for the Houston Rockets. For the Denver Nuggets it projects Nikola Jokic for 22.9 points and Jamal Murray for 22.3 points.