Indiana Pacers vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 9

Dallas are 5-4 through nine games and are playing at home. The sequence reads W L L W W W L W L, newest result last. The latest outing was a 112-100 home win over Utah on 6 November, after a 111-112 loss at San Antonio. The scores that stand out are a 120-96 win over Oklahoma City, and a 106-122 home loss to San Antonio and a 100-115 loss to Sacramento. The Mavericks average 112.1 points for and 110.9 against, so the margins are thin. They also beat Indiana 121-105 on the road on 23 October.

Indiana are 3-7 over their last 10 and arrive on the road. The sequence is L W L L L L L W L W, and the most recent game was a 102-114 home loss to Denver on 7 November. A 107-103 win at Memphis came just before it. The extremes are a 136-109 win at Brooklyn and a 125-145 loss at Miami. The Pacers average 110.3 points for and 114.2 against, a gap that explains the record. Seven losses in 10 is a poor base to travel on.

Dallas list three players out, none of them a rotation scorer. Dereck Lively II is out after right foot surgery and is considered week-to-week, with 12 November given as a return date. Reporting says Daniel Gafford and Moussa Cisse should continue to handle most of the work at the five. That matters for rebounding and rim protection more than for scoring. Tarik Biberovic (right heel bursitis) is out and has yet to make his NBA debut. Sergio De Larrea (right knee sprain) is out too. Both also carry a 12 November return date, and neither is expected to hold a meaningful role.

Indiana's absences are heavier. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a left hamstring strain and has missed the last five games. His timetable is described as uncertain, and 13 November is the listed return date. His absence shifts creation and minutes onto the rest of the backcourt, with Quenton Jackson and Braden Smith providing depth. Ben Sheppard is out for months after surgery on a torn meniscus in his left knee. Johnny Furphy is recovering from an ACL injury and is not expected before 2 January. The two starting fives are drawn on the page below.

The model takes the Dallas Mavericks. It gives them 62% to win, projects a home margin of 4.1 and makes them -4.1 against the Indiana Pacers at +4.1. The team points are 117.1 for Dallas and 113.0 for Indiana, which builds a projected total of 230.1.

The market side is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so there is no model-versus-market edge to measure and no total lean to give. Once a number appears, compare it with the model line of -4.1 and the total of 230.1 on the NBA odds page. A Dallas price shorter than the model line would leave less value, and a longer one would leave more.

The case for Dallas is simple. They are at home and 5-4, they beat Indiana 121-105 on 23 October, and the Pacers are 3-7 over their last 10 without Haliburton. Dallas have their own gaps in the frontcourt, and a 62% edge still leaves Indiana a 38% chance.

Statz pick: Dallas Mavericks to win, model line -4.1, model total 230.1 (no market line posted yet).

Lines move before tip, so check the number again before you act.