Oklahoma City ThunderThunder
Tue, Nov 1011:00 PMETPortland
Portland Trail BlazersTrail Blazers
OKC1.83POR2.20via Polymarket

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Portland Trail Blazers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 10

Updated Nov 9, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

OKC

Statz pick

Oklahoma City Thunder to win

We give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 55% chance, against 45% for the Portland Trail Blazers. See the full projection →

55%
OKC to win
Polymarket1.83

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 55% to beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday 10 November, with a model line of -1.8 and a projected total of 225.0. No bookmaker line is posted yet. The injury that matters most is Ja Morant, who is out for Portland.

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday 10 November, with tip at 11:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Thunder the favourite at 55%, with a model line of -1.8. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Check the NBA odds page for updates.

How the teams arrive

Portland are 6-3 across their nine games counted this season, scoring 119.3 and allowing 113.8 on average. The run is uneven. They beat Utah 112-90 and Phoenix 124-83 at home, and they won 132-119 at Phoenix. But they have just lost 103-125 to San Antonio at home and 118-124 at the Lakers. The 103-124 home loss to Memphis shows the same pattern. Their home games have produced both their biggest win and some of their worst losses.

Oklahoma City are 8-2 over their last ten, scoring 112.2 and allowing 104.2 on average. The defence is the story. They beat Washington 114-75 at home and Memphis 128-97 on the road, and they took two games at Cleveland and at home against the same side, 117-112 and 124-116. The blemishes came on the road, 98-119 at Houston and 96-120 at Dallas. Tuesday is another road game, so that split is worth keeping in mind.

Team news and lineups

Portland carry the longer list of names in the middle of the rotation. Ja Morant is out with a hamstring strain, though the club has given a positive outlook on his recovery. His absence pushes more minutes to Jrue Holiday. Shaedon Sharpe and Vit Krejci are also out, which thins the wing group. Krejci's minutes are expected to be split between Chris Youngblood and Sidy Cissoko. Robert Williams III is listed day-to-day with a rest designation. If he sits, Branden Carlson and Yang Hansen would absorb the backup big minutes next to Donovan Clingan.

Oklahoma City's list is heavier still. Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Thomas Sorber are all out. Jaylin Williams is also listed out with back spasms. That leaves the frontcourt rotation open to Kenrich Williams, Micah Peavy and Aday Mara in bigger roles. In the backcourt, Jared McCain, Bennett Stirtz and Josh Dix are expected to see more minutes. The Thunder have the depth to cover it, but the model still has to account for a thinner rotation than usual.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Deni Avdija

Deni Avdija is projected for 20.5 points, 5.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He is Portland's top scorer in the projection and the main creator with Morant out. His assist number matters as much as his points.

Damian Lillard

Damian Lillard is projected for 17.6 points, 4.4 assists and 2.6 three-pointers. That is the highest three-point projection on the Portland side. His shooting is the clearest route to Portland beating the model's 111.6 team projection.

Jrue Holiday

Jrue Holiday is projected for 12.2 points, 3.7 assists and 2.2 three-pointers. Minutes open up with Morant out, and Holiday is the veteran who can steady the second unit and the closing group.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 28.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists. He is the biggest single driver of Oklahoma City's 113.4 projected points. With so many teammates out, the offence runs through him.

Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell is projected for 15.2 points and 3.0 assists. He is the second option on the Thunder's side of the projection. His shot-making takes pressure off Gilgeous-Alexander.

Jared McCain

Jared McCain is projected for 12.5 points and 1.9 three-pointers. With Wallace and Jalen Williams out, he is expected to see more minutes, and his shooting gives Oklahoma City spacing.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Oklahoma City Thunder. It gives them a 55% win probability and a projected score of 113.4 to 111.6 over the Portland Trail Blazers. That puts the model line at Thunder -1.8, with Portland at +1.8. It is a narrow edge. Both teams are missing key players, and Portland are at home.

No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so there is no model-versus-market comparison to make yet. The market is the missing piece. The model total is 225.0, but without a posted total there is no over or under lean to give.

Statz pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -1.8 (model line), 55% win probability.

Lines move before tip. Check the posted number against the model line when it appears.

OKC @ POR questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Thunder at Trail Blazers?
The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 55% win probability against the Portland Trail Blazers. The model line is Thunder -1.8, and the projected score is 113.4 to 111.6 in Oklahoma City's favour.
What is the model total for Thunder vs Trail Blazers?
The Statz model projects a total of 225.0 points for this game. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with and no over or under lean to give.
What time is Thunder vs Trail Blazers on 10 November?
Tip is at 11:00 PM ET on Tuesday 10 November. The Oklahoma City Thunder are the visitors and the Portland Trail Blazers are at home. Check the posted odds closer to tip, because lines move.
Is Ja Morant playing for the Trail Blazers?
No. Ja Morant is listed out with a hamstring strain. The club has given a positive outlook on his recovery, but no return to action is expected tonight. Jrue Holiday is expected to get more minutes in his absence.
Which Thunder players are out against Portland?
Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Thomas Sorber and Jaylin Williams are all listed out for Oklahoma City. Jared McCain, Bennett Stirtz and Josh Dix are expected to see more minutes, along with Kenrich Williams, Micah Peavy and Aday Mara.
How has Oklahoma City played this season?
The Thunder are 8-2 over their last ten, averaging 112.2 points for and 104.2 against. Wins include 114-75 over Washington and 128-97 at Memphis. Their two losses were 98-119 at Houston and 96-120 at Dallas.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Oklahoma City Thunder or Portland Trail Blazers?

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 55% win probability, leaving the Portland Trail Blazers at 45%. Over their last five games the Portland Trail Blazers are 3-2 and the Oklahoma City Thunder are 4-1. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers?

No spread or total is posted yet for Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers?

For Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, the model projects Deni Avdija for 20.5 points and Damian Lillard for 17.6 points for the Portland Trail Blazers. For the Oklahoma City Thunder it projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 28.8 points and Ajay Mitchell for 15.2 points.