Orlando Magic vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 10

The Kings arrive in poor shape. They are 1-9 over their last 10, with the sequence L L L W L L L L L L. They average 109.1 points for and concede 122.4. The heavy losses stand out: 105-136 at Memphis, 103-130 at San Antonio and 120-132 at New Orleans. The one win was 115-100 at Dallas. At home they have lost to Miami 108-114, San Antonio 109-124 and the Lakers 103-116. Sacramento has lost eight of nine at home or on the road since that Dallas win.

The Magic are 2-7 over nine games, and they play this one away from home. They score 107.0 and allow 116.2 per game. Their wins came at Toronto, 121-114, and at New York, 111-102. They have lost four straight, most recently 119-126 at Golden State and 104-117 at Phoenix. Orlando's defence has been leakier than its offence has been productive, but the Kings concede far more, which is why the model leans their way.

Sacramento is badly short up front. Domantas Sabonis is listed out with knee soreness. Maxime Raynaud is out with a right patellar subluxation and is expected to miss time into mid-November. Dylan Cardwell is set to miss at least one more week with a calf issue. Ben Simmons is reported out for the season after surgery on a torn right Achilles tendon. The reports point to Precious Achiuwa, Jonathan Mogbo and De'Andre Hunter absorbing extra frontcourt minutes. That is a lot of rebounding and rim protection to replace in one night.

Orlando has its own list. Paolo Banchero is out for four to six weeks with a right high-ankle sprain, which pushes more of the offence onto Franz Wagner and Desmond Bane. Jalen Suggs is out with a mild bone bruise in his right knee, which could mean more backcourt minutes for Anthony Black and Jase Richardson. Desmond Bane is day-to-day after missing the Golden State game with an illness. His status is the one to watch before tip. Jonathan Isaac, Izaiyah Nelson and Noah Penda are also out, though none is expected to change the regular rotation much.

The model takes the Orlando Magic. It gives them a 65% win probability against 35% for the Sacramento Kings, with a model line of -5.2 and a projected score of 116.1 to 110.9. The projected total is 227.0.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether the model sees value, and we cannot call an over or under lean on the total. The case for Orlando rests on the Kings' 1-9 run, their 122.4 points allowed per game and a front line missing Sabonis and Raynaud. The risk is a Magic side missing Banchero and Suggs, with Bane in doubt, that has lost four straight.

Statz pick: Orlando Magic to win, 65% model win probability, model line -5.2.

Check the NBA odds page once a line is posted, and watch the Bane report. Lines move before tip, and so can this projection.