Washington WizardsWizards
Wed, Nov 117:00 PMETIndiana
Indiana PacersPacers
WAS2.60IND1.63via Polymarket

Washington Wizards vs Indiana Pacers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 11

Updated Nov 10, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

IND

Statz pick

Indiana Pacers to win

We give the Indiana Pacers a 57% chance, against 43% for the Washington Wizards. See the full projection →

57%
IND to win
Polymarket1.63

The Statz model favours the Indiana Pacers at 57% against the Washington Wizards at 44%, with a model line of -2.2 and a projected total of 230.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market price to compare. The injury that matters most is Tyrese Haliburton, who is out for Indiana.

The Washington Wizards visit the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Indiana the favourite at 57%, with a model line of -2.2. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so the market side of the comparison is blank for now. Two teams in poor form meet here, and the gap between them is small.

How the teams arrive

Indiana are 2-8 over their last 10, with a sequence of L L W L L L L L W L, most recent game first. They average 110.2 points for and allow 114.7. The two wins stand out for opposite reasons: a 136-109 romp at Brooklyn and a 107-103 win at Memphis. The latest game was a 122-125 loss at Dallas. Before that came a 102-114 home loss to Denver, and the heaviest defeat was 125-145 at Miami. Home games have not been kind either, including a 90-98 loss to Brooklyn.

Washington are 3-7 over the same stretch, with a sequence of L L L L W W L L W L. They score 106.1 and concede 113.1. The wins came at Orlando (103-94), at Chicago (124-120) and at home against Charlotte (95-79). The recent run is rough: a 111-122 loss at Detroit, a 75-114 loss at Oklahoma City and a 132-139 loss at Atlanta. That Atlanta game shows the Wizards can score, but the defence has leaked all season.

Team news and lineups

The biggest absence is for the home side. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring strain and has missed the last five games. His timetable is uncertain, though a return date of 13 November is listed. Without him, ball handling and shot creation fall to Andrew Nembhard, who has been solid as the lead guard. Backup guard minutes are thin, and the reporting points to extra work for Quenton Jackson and Braden Smith.

Indiana are also without Ben Sheppard, who is out for months after surgery on a torn meniscus, and Johnny Furphy, who is recovering from a knee injury and is practicing with the G League's Noblesville Boom. Neither is expected back until 2 January. Both losses cut wing depth, so the minutes go to the remaining forwards and guards.

Washington have a longer list. Bilal Coulibaly is day-to-day with a hand injury and has a return date of 11 November, so he is a late call. Tristan Vukcevic is out with a hip impingement and is week-to-week. Reece Beekman has a shoulder joint injury and is listed to return on 3 December, which thins the backcourt. Justin Champagnie (fractured foot) is not expected back until around the All-Star break, and Jamir Watkins is out with a torn ACL.

The Wizards will lean on Tre Johnson and Bub Carrington for more minutes. If Coulibaly sits, their wing rotation gets short, and the two expected starting fives are drawn below.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Pascal Siakam

Pascal Siakam is projected for 21.4 points, 6.1 rebounds and 4.0 assists. With Haliburton out, he is the main scoring option for Indiana. His shot volume matters more than anyone else's on the home side.

Andrew Nembhard

Andrew Nembhard is projected for 15.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, 8.5 assists and 2.0 threes. He runs the offence while Haliburton is out. His assist number is the one to track, because Indiana's scoring depends on his playmaking.

Aaron Nesmith

Aaron Nesmith is projected for 12.0 points, 2.9 rebounds and 1.9 threes. He gives Indiana a floor-spacing wing at a time when wing depth is thin. His three-point output is a swing factor in a game the model sees as close.

Anthony Davis

Anthony Davis is projected for 21.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists. He leads Washington in both scoring and rebounding. With Vukcevic out, he carries the interior load, and his rebounding gives the Wizards a way to limit second chances.

Trae Young

Trae Young is projected for 19.1 points, 3.0 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 2.4 threes. He is the engine of the Washington offence. Indiana's guard rotation is short, so his matchup is worth watching.

KyShawn George

KyShawn George is projected for 15.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.4 threes. He is a secondary creator who spaces the floor. If Coulibaly is out, George's role grows.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Indiana Pacers. It gives them a 57% win probability, with a model line of -2.2 and projected points of 116.2 to 114.0 for the Washington Wizards. That is a narrow edge. Home court and the Wizards' defensive numbers carry it. Haliburton's absence and Indiana's own 2-8 run keep it from being larger.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make today, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline. The model total is 230.2, but without a market total there is no total lean to give. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear.

Statz pick: Indiana Pacers to win, 57% model win probability, model line -2.2.

Lines move before tip, and the Coulibaly status could shift the picture. Read the full preview for the latest model numbers.

WAS @ IND questions

Who does the model favour in Wizards at Pacers?
The Statz model favours the Indiana Pacers at 57%, with the Washington Wizards at 44%. The model line is Indiana -2.2. That is a small edge, built on home court and Washington's defensive numbers rather than any form advantage.
What is the projected total for Wizards vs Pacers?
The model projects 230.2 total points, with Indiana at 116.2 and Washington at 114.0. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with and no total lean.
Is Tyrese Haliburton playing for the Pacers?
No. Tyrese Haliburton is out with a hamstring strain and has missed the last five games. His timetable is uncertain, though a return date of 13 November is listed. Andrew Nembhard has been solid as the lead guard in his place.
Is Bilal Coulibaly playing for the Wizards?
Bilal Coulibaly is listed day-to-day with a hand injury, with a return date of 11 November. That makes him a late call. Tristan Vukcevic, Reece Beekman, Justin Champagnie and Jamir Watkins are all out for Washington.
What time does Wizards at Pacers tip off?
Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers tips at 7:00 PM ET on Wednesday 11 November. The game is in Indiana. Check team news close to tip, since Bilal Coulibaly's status for Washington is not settled.
How have the Wizards and Pacers played recently?
Indiana are 2-8 over their last 10 and Washington are 3-7. The Pacers average 110.2 points and allow 114.7. The Wizards average 106.1 and allow 113.1. Both teams have struggled to string wins together.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Washington Wizards or Indiana Pacers?

The Statz model favours the Indiana Pacers with a 57% win probability, leaving the Washington Wizards at 43%. Over their last five games the Indiana Pacers are 1-4 and the Washington Wizards are 1-4. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers?

No spread or total is posted yet for Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers?

For Washington Wizards at Indiana Pacers, the model projects Pascal Siakam for 21.4 points and Andrew Nembhard for 15.9 points for the Indiana Pacers. For the Washington Wizards it projects Anthony Davis for 21.0 points and Trae Young for 19.1 points.