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Los Angeles Lakers vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 11

Updated Nov 10, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

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Statz pick

Los Angeles Lakers to win

We give the Los Angeles Lakers a 73% chance, against 27% for the Milwaukee Bucks. See the full projection →

73%
LAL to win
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The Statz model favours the Los Angeles Lakers at 73% to beat the Milwaukee Bucks, with a model line of -8.4 and a projected total of 230.7. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters: Austin Reaves is day-to-day with illness, and Quentin Grimes is also day-to-day.

The Los Angeles Lakers visit the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday 11 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Lakers the favourite at 73% and has them winning by 8.4 points. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it. Check the NBA odds page for updates.

How the teams arrive

The Lakers arrive in strong form. They are 8-2 over their last 10 and have won six of the last seven. Their recent road wins came at Atlanta (124-114) and at Detroit (121-116), played on back-to-back nights. They average 121.3 points for and 115.1 against over that stretch. The one blemish was a 95-112 loss at Golden State.

The Bucks are in a deep slump. They are 1-9 over their last 10, with a single win, 110-102 over Indiana on 26 October. The defence has been the problem: they average 108.4 points for and 121.6 against. Heavy home losses to Cleveland (111-136) and Houston (100-132) stand out, and the most recent game was a 97-117 home defeat to Boston.

Team news and lineups

Milwaukee Bucks have nobody on the injury report. That means a full rotation for a side that has struggled to win with it.

The Lakers have two names to watch, and both are listed as day-to-day with a return date of 11 November. Quentin Grimes sprained his right finger in Detroit and sat out the second night of the back-to-back. Austin Reaves was ruled out against Atlanta with an illness, his first absence of the season. If either is unavailable again, the reports point to Collin Sexton and Cameron Carr picking up backcourt minutes. Reaves is the one that matters most. His absence would take a scorer out of the guard rotation and put more of the playmaking load on Luka Doncic.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic is projected for 32.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 7.4 assists and 4.2 threes. He is the engine of the Lakers' offence, and his usage could rise if Reaves is out.

Austin Reaves

Austin Reaves is projected for 19.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 4.3 assists. The projection assumes he plays, so his illness status is the swing factor in the Lakers' numbers.

Walker Kessler

Walker Kessler is projected for 11.8 points and 10.8 rebounds. The rebounding figure is the one to note against a Bucks side that has conceded heavily.

Tyler Herro

Tyler Herro leads the Bucks projection with 16.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.2 threes. Milwaukee needs his shot-making to keep pace.

Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Jaime Jaquez Jr. is projected for 14.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists. He gives the Bucks a second creator on the wing.

Kyle Kuzma

Kyle Kuzma is projected for 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists. He is a steady third option for a team short of scoring.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Lakers. It gives them a 73% win probability and a line of -8.4, with the Bucks at +8.4. It projects 119.5 points for the Lakers and 111.2 for the Bucks, a total of 230.7. The gap in form supports the lean: the Lakers are 8-2 and the Bucks 1-9.

No bookmaker has posted a spread or total yet, so there is no model-versus-market comparison to make. The market is the missing piece. Without a total, there is no total lean to give. Once a line appears, compare it with 230.7 and -8.4 to see where the value sits. Reaves' status is the main risk to the Lakers side.

Statz pick: Los Angeles Lakers, model line -8.4, 73% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the number again close to game time.

LAL @ MIL questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Lakers vs Bucks?
The model favours the Los Angeles Lakers at 73%, with the Milwaukee Bucks at 27%. Its line is Lakers -8.4 and Bucks +8.4, based on a projected margin in the Lakers' favour.
What is the projected total for Lakers vs Bucks?
The model projects a total of 230.7 points. That splits into 119.5 for the Los Angeles Lakers and 111.2 for the Milwaukee Bucks. No bookmaker total has been posted yet, so there is nothing to compare it with.
What time is Lakers at Bucks on November 11?
Tip is at 8:00 PM ET on Wednesday 11 November in Milwaukee. The Lakers are the visitors and the Bucks are the home team for this regular season game.
Which Lakers players are injured for this game?
Quentin Grimes (finger) and Austin Reaves (illness) are both listed as day-to-day, with a return date of 11 November. Both missed the game against Atlanta. Their status is worth checking before tip.
Does Milwaukee have any injuries?
No. The Milwaukee Bucks have nobody on the injury report for this game, so their full rotation is expected to be available.
How have the Lakers and Bucks played recently?
The Lakers are 8-2 over their last 10 and average 121.3 points for. The Bucks are 1-9 over the same stretch, scoring 108.4 and conceding 121.6 per game.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Los Angeles Lakers or Milwaukee Bucks?

The Statz model favours the Los Angeles Lakers with a 73% win probability, leaving the Milwaukee Bucks at 27%. Over their last five games the Milwaukee Bucks are 0-5 and the Los Angeles Lakers are 5-0. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks?

No spread or total is posted yet for Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks?

For Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks, the model projects Tyler Herro for 16.7 points and Jaime Jaquez Jr. for 14.0 points for the Milwaukee Bucks. For the Los Angeles Lakers it projects Luka Doncic for 32.3 points and Austin Reaves for 19.4 points.