Dallas MavericksMavericks
Thu, Nov 128:00 PMETMinnesota
Minnesota TimberwolvesTimberwolves
DAL3.08MIN1.48via Polymarket

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 12

Updated Nov 11, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

MIN

Statz pick

Minnesota Timberwolves to win

We give the Minnesota Timberwolves a 64% chance, against 36% for the Dallas Mavericks. See the full projection →

64%
MIN to win
Polymarket1.48

The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves at 64% over the Dallas Mavericks, with a model line of -4.6 and a projected total of 226.1. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Anthony Edwards, who is out for Minnesota.

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday 12 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model favours Minnesota at 64% with a model line of -4.6. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market price to set against it. Both teams are 7-3 over their last ten, and Minnesota has to play without its leading scorer.

How the teams arrive

Minnesota is 7-3 over its last ten and has won four of its last five. The sequence reads W W W W L W L L W W, most recent first. The wins have been emphatic: 127-101 over the LAC, 117-94 over Toronto and 115-100 over Utah last time out at home. The losses are the concern. The Timberwolves fell 111-121 at San Antonio and 125-127 at Cleveland. Over the ten games they average 116.8 points for and 107.1 against, so the defence has done the heavy lifting.

Dallas is also 7-3, with a sequence of W W W L L W W W L W. It has won its last three. Those include a 130-93 rout of Brooklyn and a 125-122 win over Indiana on Monday. The setbacks were a 100-115 loss to Sacramento and a 111-112 defeat at San Antonio. The Mavericks average 115.4 points for and 108.5 against. Their recent games have mostly been at home, and this is a road trip into a team that scores a little more and concedes a little less.

Team news and lineups

The big absence is Anthony Edwards. He is out after an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee, and reporting suggests he could miss up to two months. He was averaging 33.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.0 steals across four appearances, so the usage he leaves behind is large. Expect the ball to move to the guards and wings on the roster, and expect the model's projected lines for LaMelo Ball and Ayo Dosunmu to carry more weight. Donte DiVincenzo is also out with an Achilles injury, and Minnesota has set no timetable for his return.

Dallas has more names on the list, but most sit at the edge of the rotation. Morez Johnson is day-to-day with a leg issue. If he sits, Santi Aldama and Moussa Cisse are the likely beneficiaries of the minutes behind Daniel Gafford. Dereck Lively II is out with a foot injury and is considered week-to-week, which leaves Gafford and Cisse with most of the work at the five. Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio De Larrea (knee) are both out and also week-to-week. Neither is expected to move the needle tonight.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball projects to 19.1 points, 3.7 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 3.5 threes. The threes are the notable figure. With Edwards out, Ball is the creator Minnesota leans on most, and the model gives him the top scoring line on the home side.

Ayo Dosunmu

Ayo Dosunmu projects to 17.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.8 threes. He is the steadier second option. His assist number matters because it shows he is handling the ball as well as scoring.

Jaden McDaniels

Jaden McDaniels projects to 16.2 points, 4.8 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He is the defensive wing who can be asked to guard Dallas's best scorer, and his scoring helps if the offence stalls without Edwards.

Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg projects to 21.3 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.6 assists, the highest points line on the floor. Dallas runs through him. If Minnesota's defence holds him down, the Mavericks have few other ways to score.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving projects to 19.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.4 threes. He is the shot-maker who can swing a close game, and his three-point volume is the best on the visiting side.

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington projects to 13.1 points, 6.5 rebounds and 1.7 threes. His rebounding matters most. With Lively out, Dallas needs its forwards to share the glass against a Minnesota side that attacks the boards.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Minnesota Timberwolves. It gives them a 64% win probability and a model line of -4.6, with a projected score of 115.4 to 110.7. Both teams have the same ten-game record. Minnesota has the better scoring margin, the home floor and a run of wins that have mostly been comfortable. Edwards' absence trims the margin, and it is already built into the projection.

No bookmaker has posted a spread or a total yet, so there is no model-versus-market comparison to make. The model total is 226.1. Without a market number, there is no total lean to give. Check the NBA odds page once lines go up and compare them with -4.6 and 226.1.

Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves, 64% win probability, model line -4.6.

Lines move before tip, so treat the model line as a guide to value and not as a fixed price.

DAL @ MIN questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves?
The model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 64% win probability. Its line is -4.6 for Minnesota and +4.6 for the Dallas Mavericks. The projected score is 115.4 to 110.7 in Minnesota's favour.
What is the projected total for Mavericks at Timberwolves?
The Statz model projects a total of 226.1 points, with Minnesota at 115.4 and Dallas at 110.7. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Has a market line been posted for this game?
No. No bookmaker had posted a spread, total or moneyline when this preview was built. That means there is no model-versus-market comparison yet. Check the Statz NBA odds page for lines once they go up.
Is Anthony Edwards playing for the Timberwolves?
No. Anthony Edwards is out after an arthroscopic procedure on his right knee, and reporting says he could miss up to two months. He averaged 33.3 points across four appearances this season before the injury.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Both teams are 7-3 over their last ten games. Minnesota averages 116.8 points for and 107.1 against. Dallas averages 115.4 for and 108.5 against. Dallas has won its last three, and Minnesota has won four of its last five.
Which Dallas Mavericks players are injured?
Morez Johnson is day-to-day with a leg injury. Dereck Lively II (foot), Tarik Biberovic (heel) and Sergio De Larrea (knee) are all out and considered week-to-week. Gafford and Cisse are expected to handle most of the work at center.

More NBA previews

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are subject to change.

Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Dallas Mavericks or Minnesota Timberwolves?

The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 64% win probability, leaving the Dallas Mavericks at 36%. Over their last five games the Minnesota Timberwolves are 4-1 and the Dallas Mavericks are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves?

No spread or total is posted yet for Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves?

For Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves, the model projects LaMelo Ball for 19.1 points and Ayo Dosunmu for 17.0 points for the Minnesota Timberwolves. For the Dallas Mavericks it projects Cooper Flagg for 21.3 points and Kyrie Irving for 19.3 points.