Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 12

Philadelphia are 7-3 over their last 10, with a run of L W L W W W W W L W. They score 110.2 and concede 110.4 on average over that stretch, so the record is slightly better than the scoring margin suggests. The results swing widely. They beat Chicago 127-121 on the road, but lost 123-101 at home to Boston and 119-95 at Cleveland. The most recent game was the Boston loss, played at home.

Toronto are 5-5 over their last 10, with a run of L W L W L L W L W W. They average 116.6 points for and 113.3 against, a better scoring profile than Philadelphia on paper. The extremes are large. They beat Chicago 135-92 and Orlando 129-99 at home, but lost 118-102 to Memphis in their latest game and 128-109 at Denver. Toronto arrive on the road after a home defeat.

Philadelphia are thin up front. Dominick Barlow is out with a back issue. Head coach Nick Nurse said he likely needs another 10-12 days before he is cleared, and the return date in our data is 18 November. Ariel Hukporti is out for the season with a ruptured right Achilles. Adem Bona is also out with a cervical spine sprain, his third consecutive miss. Jabari Walker is expected to get extra looks as the backup big. The practical effect is that the starting centre carries a heavy share of the interior minutes, and there is little cover if he picks up foul trouble.

Toronto's list is longer and more important. Scottie Barnes is out with a left groin strain and is missing a third straight game. His playmaking has moved to the guards, which puts more creation on the backcourt and fewer easy touches for the wings. Kawhi Leonard is out while he continues reconditioning a left knee issue, with the next update due in a week. Nate Bittle is out with a right avulsion fracture and is considered week-to-week.

Barnes is the one that matters most. Toronto lose a primary creator and defender on the road, and that is a large part of why the model leans to the home side.

The model takes the Philadelphia 76ers. It gives them a 62% win probability and a projected home margin that produces a model line of -4.1, with Toronto at +4.1. Its team points projection is 114.6 for Philadelphia and 110.5 for the Toronto Raptors, which adds up to a projected total of 225.1.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game, so we cannot say whether the model line is above or below the market, and we cannot give a total lean against a market total. The model total of 225.1 is the number to hold until a total appears. The case for Philadelphia is simple. Toronto are missing Barnes and Leonard, and the 76ers are at home, even with their own thin frontcourt.

Statz pick: Philadelphia 76ers to win, 62% win probability, model line -4.1.

Lines move before tip, especially with injury statuses still shifting. Check the NBA odds page once a number is posted and compare it with the model line.