Charlotte HornetsHornets
Thu, Nov 129:00 PMETPhoenix
Phoenix SunsSuns
CHA3.08PHX1.48via Polymarket

Charlotte Hornets vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 12

Updated Nov 11, with the latest lineups and odds

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PHX

Statz pick

Phoenix Suns to win

We give the Phoenix Suns a 62% chance, against 38% for the Charlotte Hornets. See the full projection →

62%
PHX to win
Polymarket1.48

The Statz model favours the Phoenix Suns at 62% to beat the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday 12 November, with a model line of -4.2 and a projected total of 215.5. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread to compare. The injury that matters most is on the Hornets side, where Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schroder are both out.

The Phoenix Suns host the Charlotte Hornets on Thursday 12 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET in Phoenix. The Statz model makes the Suns the favourite at 62%, with the Hornets at 38%. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread, total or moneyline to set against the model. The model line is Phoenix -4.2.

How the teams arrive

Phoenix are 4-6 over their last 10. The sequence reads W L W W L L L L W L, latest game first. They have scored 112.8 and allowed 118.1 per game across that stretch. The swings are wide. A 133-110 win over the Clippers came one game after a 96-122 home loss to the Spurs, and the run opened with an 83-124 defeat at Portland. At home they beat Houston 102-99 and Orlando 117-104. The defence is the worry, and the points allowed per game show it.

Charlotte are 3-7 over their last 10, sequence W L L L L L L W W L. They average 97.7 points for and 111.1 against. The latest result is their best of the run: a 124-112 home win over the Cavaliers. Before that came an 80-119 home loss to the Celtics, a 91-124 home loss to the Pistons and an 81-128 home loss to the Hawks. On the road they lost 104-114 at Brooklyn, 79-95 at Washington and 89-97 at Detroit. This is a team that struggles to score, and tonight it travels to Phoenix.

Team news and lineups

Phoenix are without centre Mark Williams, who is out after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder. His listed return date is 3 February 2027. The report on his injury points to Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach as the players who gain frontcourt minutes. For tonight that means less size and rim protection from Phoenix, which matters against a Charlotte side that leans on its bigs for rebounds.

The Hornets have the longer list, and it cuts into their backcourt. Kon Knueppel is out with a left hamstring strain and his listed return date is 12 December. Dennis Schroder is also out with a hamstring strain, with a return date of 25 November. Grant Williams is out with a right hamstring strain and has yet to play this season. Reports on those injuries point to extra minutes for Grayson Allen, Sion James and Christian Anderson.

Brandon Miller and Moussa Diabate are both listed day-to-day. Miller is a groin issue and Diabate is a quadriceps issue. Both show a return date of 12 November, so check the final injury report before tip. If either sits, a thin Charlotte rotation gets thinner. The two expected starting fives are drawn below.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Devin Booker

Devin Booker is projected for 22.8 points, 3.0 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.9 threes. He is the clear scoring option for Phoenix, and Charlotte's guard depth is short. The model has him as the main reason the Suns reach 109.8 points.

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks is projected for 15.1 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.9 threes. He gives Phoenix a second scorer on the wing. His shooting volume is a big part of why the model likes the Suns' perimeter edge.

Jalen Green

Jalen Green is projected for 14.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.8 threes. He adds pace and shot creation. If the Suns defence stops Charlotte, Green is the type who turns stops into points.

Brandon Miller

Brandon Miller is projected for 17.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 2.5 threes, assuming he plays. He is Charlotte's top scorer in the model. His groin status is the biggest swing factor on the Hornets side.

Naz Reid

Naz Reid is projected for 15.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.9 threes. He gives Charlotte size and some shooting. With Phoenix missing Mark Williams, his matchup is worth watching.

Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen is projected for 14.4 points, 2.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 2.7 threes. That is the highest three-point projection on either roster. With Knueppel and Schroder out, Allen is one of the few Hornets guards who can carry shot volume.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Phoenix Suns. It gives them a 62% win probability against 38% for the Charlotte Hornets, with a model line of -4.2. It projects the score at 109.8 to 105.6 for a total of 215.5. The case rests on Charlotte's scoring, 97.7 points per game over its last 10, and on a backcourt missing Knueppel and Schroder.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total yet. That also means no total lean can be given. The 215.5 model total is a reference point to hold against a posted number when one appears. Phoenix's own defensive record, 118.1 allowed per game, is a reason not to treat the 62% as a safe read.

Statz pick: Phoenix Suns, model line -4.2, 62% win probability.

Lines move before tip, and the injury news on Miller and Diabate could shift the model. Check the latest NBA odds and the full preview before you act.

CHA @ PHX questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Hornets vs Suns?
The Statz model favours the Phoenix Suns at 62%, with the Charlotte Hornets at 38%. The model line is Phoenix -4.2, and the projected score is 109.8 to 105.6 in the Suns' favour.
What is the projected total for Hornets at Suns?
The model projects a total of 215.5 points. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with and no over or under lean can be given.
What time is Hornets vs Suns on 12 November?
Tip is at 9:00 PM ET on Thursday 12 November, with the game played in Phoenix. The Phoenix Suns are the home team and the Charlotte Hornets are the visitors.
Which injuries matter most for Charlotte?
Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schroder are both out with hamstring strains, which leaves the Hornets short in the backcourt. Brandon Miller and Moussa Diabate are listed day-to-day, so their final status before tip is worth checking.
Who is missing for the Phoenix Suns?
Center Mark Williams is out after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, with a listed return date of 3 February 2027. Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach are named as the players who gain minutes.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Charlotte Hornets or Phoenix Suns?

The Statz model favours the Phoenix Suns with a 62% win probability, leaving the Charlotte Hornets at 38%. Over their last five games the Phoenix Suns are 3-2 and the Charlotte Hornets are 1-4. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns?

No spread or total is posted yet for Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns?

For Charlotte Hornets at Phoenix Suns, the model projects Devin Booker for 22.8 points and Dillon Brooks for 15.1 points for the Phoenix Suns. For the Charlotte Hornets it projects Brandon Miller for 17.2 points and Naz Reid for 15.1 points.