Portland Trail Blazers vs Sacramento Kings Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 13

Sacramento arrive in poor shape at home. The Kings are 1-9 over their last 10, which is their whole season so far, and the sequence reads L L L L W L L L L L. They average 109.5 points for and concede 121.0. The heavy losses stand out: 105-136 at Memphis and 103-130 at San Antonio. The only win was 115-100 at Dallas. Most recently they lost 100-107 to Orlando at home, and they have dropped four straight in Sacramento.

Portland come in at 7-3 over their last 10, averaging 119.1 points for and allowing 115.2. They have won back to back at home against Oklahoma City, 123-103 and then 118-108. There was also a 112-90 win at Utah. The setbacks were sharp, though: 103-125 against San Antonio and 103-124 against Memphis. They also beat the Kings 128-120 in Sacramento on 23 October, the only meeting between the sides this season.

Sacramento carry the heavier list. Precious Achiuwa is day-to-day after leaving the loss to Orlando with a left lower leg contusion after 14 minutes. If he cannot go, Keegan Murray would likely return to the lineup and Dylan Cardwell would see extended run. Maxime Raynaud is out with a knee injury and is considered week-to-week. Ben Simmons is out for the season after surgery on a torn right Achilles tendon.

The frontcourt is thin. Cardwell and Achiuwa were already set for more minutes with Raynaud out, and another absence stretches that group further against a Portland side that can attack in several ways.

Portland are also thin, and the list is longer. Ja Morant is out with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain. His timetable points to a return around 1 December, though the coach said he "may not be out for as long as we thought". Vit Krejci is out after surgery on a fractured left ankle and will be re-evaluated in eight weeks. Shaedon Sharpe is out with a torn meniscus. Chris Youngblood left the Oklahoma City game early, and his listed return date is 13 November, so check his status before tip.

With the guard and wing group short, Jrue Holiday and Sidy Cissoko pick up the extra minutes, and Scoot Henderson takes on a bigger role. That helps explain why the model leans on Portland's veterans rather than on depth.

The model takes the Portland Trail Blazers. It gives them an 80% win probability and a model line of -11.2, with the Kings at +11.2. It projects 121.5 points for Portland and 110.3 for Sacramento, which makes a model total of 231.8.

The market side is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline yet, so there is no model-versus-market comparison to make and no total lean to give. The 231.8 projection is the number to hold against the total once it appears.

The case for Portland is simple. They are 7-3 over their last 10 and the Kings are 1-9. They also won the one meeting this season in Sacramento. The main risk is Portland's own injury list, which is long, and Friday's health updates on Achiuwa and Youngblood are worth checking.

Statz pick: Portland Trail Blazers to win, 80% model win probability, model line -11.2.

Lines move before tip, so compare the model's numbers with the market once a price is posted at NBA odds.