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PHX4.08DEN1.32via Polymarket

Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 16

Updated Nov 15, with the latest lineups and odds

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DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 70% chance, against 30% for the Phoenix Suns. See the full projection →

70%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.32

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at home with a 70% win probability and a model line of -7.0 against the Phoenix Suns. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Mark Williams, out for Phoenix after shoulder surgery.

The Phoenix Suns visit the Denver Nuggets on Monday 16 November, with tip at 9:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 70%, with a model line of -7.0. The market has not spoken yet: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game, so the model stands alone for now.

How the teams arrive

Denver arrive at 7-3 over their last 10, with a run of W W L W W L W W L W. They average 117.7 points for and 114.5 against. The wins have been routine on the road: 116-108 at New Orleans most recently, then 123-118 at Memphis. The bad nights are real too. Denver lost 114-134 to Golden State and 100-110 at Houston. At home they beat Toronto 128-109 and opened the season with a 141-135 win over New Orleans. They are home tonight.

Phoenix are 5-5 over the same span, with a sequence of W W L W W L L L L W. They score 114.6 and concede 115.3, which is a break-even profile. The swings are wide. They beat the Clippers 133-110, then lost 96-122 to San Antonio. Their latest result is a 101-96 win over Charlotte. Phoenix already lost to Denver this season: the Nuggets won 127-120 in Phoenix on 30 October. Tonight the Suns are on the road.

Team news and lineups

Denver are without Julian Strawther, who is out with a left knee sprain. He is due to be re-evaluated in six weeks, and his listed return date is 29 November. He averaged 7.1 points over 16.2 minutes per game for Denver, so this is a bench-depth issue rather than a hit to the core. Reports point to Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard taking the extra minutes. Expect little change to the main rotation.

Phoenix have the bigger absence. Mark Williams is out after left shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum, with a listed return date of 3 February. That removes their centre. Reporting points to Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach as the players who absorb the minutes in the middle. Against a Denver side built around a passing big man, the interior is where Phoenix feel it most, in rebounding and rim protection.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 24.4 points, 11.7 rebounds and 8.1 assists. With Phoenix thin at centre, he is the main reason the model leans so firmly toward Denver. Every possession runs through him.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 24.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 3.4 threes. The three-point figure stands out. He is the second scoring option, and his shooting is the swing factor in how far Denver pull clear.

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon is projected for 13.0 points and 5.1 rebounds. His job is to match up physically and help on the glass while Phoenix search for size. A steady line from him keeps Denver's offence balanced.

Devin Booker

Devin Booker is projected for 23.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.0 threes. He is Phoenix's engine. If the Suns stay in this game, it will be because Booker scores and creates at a high level.

Dillon Brooks

Dillon Brooks is projected for 15.3 points and 2.0 threes. He is the second-highest scorer in the Phoenix projection, and his shot volume matters with the Suns short of interior scoring.

Jalen Green

Jalen Green is projected for 14.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.9 assists. He gives Phoenix a second ball handler who can attack off the dribble. His output helps decide whether the Suns reach their team projection of 110.4 points.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets. It gives them a 70% chance, projects a 7.0-point home margin, and sets a model line of -7.0 (Phoenix +7.0). The team projection is 117.4 for Denver and 110.4 for Phoenix, for a model total of 227.9.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the model sees value against a price, and we cannot give a total lean. The 227.9 model total is a reference point to hold against the number when it appears.

The case for Denver is simple. They are home, they have the better last 10 at 7-3 against 5-5, they beat Phoenix 127-120 on 30 October, and Phoenix are without their centre. The risk is Denver's own volatility, with losses by 20 and 10 points in recent weeks.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets, model line -7.0, 70% win probability. Wait for the market and compare it with -7.0 before acting. Lines move before tip, so check the latest on the NBA odds page and the full preview.

PHX @ DEN questions

Who is favoured in Phoenix Suns vs Denver Nuggets?
The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 70% win probability, and the Phoenix Suns at 30%. The model line is Denver -7.0 and Phoenix +7.0, with a projected home margin of 7.0 points.
What is the spread for Suns at Nuggets on 16 November?
No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game yet. The only line available is the Statz model line of Denver -7.0. Check the NBA odds page for updates, because lines can move before tip.
What is the projected total for Suns vs Nuggets?
The model projects a total of 227.9 points, with Denver at 117.4 and Phoenix at 110.4. There is no market total yet, so there is no total lean to give until a bookmaker posts one.
Which injuries matter in Suns vs Nuggets?
Mark Williams is out for Phoenix after left shoulder surgery, with a listed return date of 3 February. Denver are without Julian Strawther, who has a left knee sprain and a listed return date of 29 November.
What time is Suns vs Nuggets?
Tip-off is at 9:00 PM ET on Monday 16 November in Denver. The Nuggets are the home side and the Phoenix Suns travel for the game.
Who are the top projected scorers in Suns vs Nuggets?
Nikola Jokic leads the projection at 24.4 points, with Jamal Murray at 24.2 for Denver. For Phoenix, Devin Booker is projected for 23.5 points, followed by Dillon Brooks at 15.3.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Phoenix Suns or Denver Nuggets?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 70% win probability, leaving the Phoenix Suns at 30%. Over their last five games the Denver Nuggets are 4-1 and the Phoenix Suns are 4-1. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets?

No spread or total is posted yet for Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets?

For Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, the model projects Nikola Jokic for 24.4 points and Jamal Murray for 24.2 points for the Denver Nuggets. For the Phoenix Suns it projects Devin Booker for 23.5 points and Dillon Brooks for 15.3 points.