Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 15

The Lakers come in as one of the form teams. They are 8-2 over their last 10 and have not lost since a 95-112 defeat at Golden State. The scoring has been strong: 120.4 points for and 114.0 against per game. The wins have often been comfortable, including 138-117 over Miami and 103-87 at the Clippers. They also beat Milwaukee 123-112 on the road in their latest game. Away from home they have won at Atlanta, Detroit and Sacramento, which suits a road favourite.

The Phoenix Suns are level at 5-5 over the same stretch, scoring 114.6 and conceding 115.3. The swings are wide. They beat the Clippers 133-110 and edged Charlotte 101-96 in their latest game, both at home. They also lost 96-122 to San Antonio and 119-132 to Portland, so the defence has been exposed more than once. The Suns have won their last two at home, but the margin between their best and worst nights is large.

The Lakers carry the longer list, and none of it is settled. Austin Reaves is day-to-day with a heel bruise and is averaging 24.7 points. He is the one that matters most. He will not undergo imaging, and an official designation is due before the game. If he sits, the ball-handling and shot creation load moves to the other guards.

Luka Doncic is also day-to-day with an ankle problem after leaving late in the win over Milwaukee. His coach called him fine, and he is tentatively on the right side of questionable. Collin Sexton needed stitches for a forehead cut but appears to have avoided a concussion. If Reaves is out, Sexton could see extended minutes. Quentin Grimes expects to return from a finger injury after missing the last two games. He averages 8.0 points per game but 17.5 in his two starts, so his role depends on Reaves.

The Suns are thin at centre. Mark Williams is out after surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder, and he is likely to miss time through the All-Star break. That puts attention on Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach. Drew Timme, claimed off waivers, is listed day-to-day and adds depth at the position. Without Williams, Phoenix has less size to deal with a Lakers frontcourt that rebounds well.

The model takes the Lakers. It gives them a 59% win probability, projects them to win by 3.2 points, and puts the score at 115.8 to 112.7. The Suns are given 41%, which is a live chance for a home side with an inconsistent recent record but a strong scorer in Booker.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total, so we cannot say whether the model line of -3.2 or the model total of 228.5 offers value. We also have no total lean until a number is posted. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear and compare them with the model figures.

The status of Reaves and Doncic is the biggest risk to the Lakers side. If either is ruled out, the model's picture changes. Treat the projection as a starting point.

Statz pick: Los Angeles Lakers to win, model line -3.2, model total 228.5. Lines move before tip, so confirm the injury report and any posted price first.