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Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 14

Updated Nov 13, with the latest lineups and odds

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Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 72% chance, against 28% for the New Orleans Pelicans. See the full projection →

72%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.21

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 72% to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday 14 November, with a projected margin of 7.9 points. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market price to compare. The injury that matters is Trey Murphy III, who is doubtful for the Pelicans.

The Denver Nuggets visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Saturday 14 November, with tip at 7:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 72%, with a projected margin of 7.9 points. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so the market side of the picture is still empty.

How the teams arrive

The Pelicans are 4-6 over their last 10 and arrive in poor shape. Their last four games were all losses: 111-145 to BKN, 87-138 at GSW, 123-139 at LAC and 109-115 to MIN. Before that they won four straight, including 135-134 at MEM and 121-99 over ATL. They have averaged 116.4 points for and conceded 124.8 over the stretch, and the defence is the problem. They play at home here.

The Nuggets are 6-4 over their last 10, with 114.5 points for and 113.3 against. That is a tight, defence-led profile. They won 123-118 at MEM on their last outing, after a 100-110 loss at HOU and a 114-102 win at IND. They have already beaten New Orleans twice this season: 141-135 in Denver and 104-91 in New Orleans. Denver is on the road again tonight.

Team news and lineups

The Pelicans carry the heavier report. The latest statuses date from Friday's game against Memphis, the first leg of a back-to-back, so check them again before tip. Trey Murphy III (bilateral patellar tendinopathy), Yves Missi (knee bone bruise), Bennedict Mathurin (thumb sprain) and Bryce McGowens (elbow infection) were all listed as doubtful. Trendon Watford (ankle sprain) was out, with no timetable for a return.

The effect is on wing and big-man minutes. Murphy was in line to miss a third straight game, which leaves Herbert Jones and Saddiq Bey carrying more of the wing load. If Mathurin and McGowens are out again, Jordan Poole and AJ Johnson are candidates for extra burn. Inside, Karlo Matkovic was in line to start at center again while Missi is out, and Watford's absence solidifies DeAndre Jordan's spot in the center rotation. That is a thin frontcourt against Nikola Jokic.

Denver's report is short. Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and will be re-evaluated in six weeks. Tyus Jones and potentially Ryan Nembhard are the candidates for his minutes, which is a small shift for a rotation that otherwise looks intact.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 19.0 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.7 assists. With so many wings and bigs doubtful, New Orleans leans on his scoring more than usual. Denver can focus its defence on him.

Jeremiah Fears

Jeremiah Fears is projected for 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds and 4.1 assists, plus 1.5 threes. With the backcourt depleted, his playmaking carries the offence. He is the Pelicans' main source of creation.

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III is projected for 14.5 points and 2.5 threes. That projection only holds if he plays, and he was doubtful. If he sits, shooting drops with him and the Pelicans lose their best floor-spacer.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 25.0 points, 11.6 rebounds and 8.6 assists. Against a thin New Orleans frontcourt, that is the main reason the model leans Denver. His passing also feeds everyone else.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 25.0 points, 5.5 assists and 3.6 threes. The three-point figure is the highest on either roster. He is the shot-making edge that can stretch a lead on the road.

Aaron Gordon

Aaron Gordon is projected for 13.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists. He supplies the secondary scoring and the physical defence around Jokic. His role matters most if the game turns into a half-court grind.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Nuggets. It gives them a 72% win probability and a model line of -7.9, which sits with a projected score of 121.3 to 113.4. The Pelicans' recent defence and a long injury report both support that gap. Denver has also won both meetings this season.

There is no market to measure against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so no model-versus-market comparison can be made yet. The model total is 234.6. Without a posted total there is no over or under lean to offer. Check the NBA odds page once a price appears.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets, model line -7.9, 72% win probability.

Lines move before tip, and the Pelicans' injury news could change the picture, so recheck both before acting. See the full preview for the model details.

DEN @ NOP questions

Who does the model favour in Nuggets at Pelicans?
The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 72%, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 28%. Its model line is Nuggets -7.9, based on a projected score of 121.3 to 113.4 in Denver's favour.
What is the betting line for Nuggets vs Pelicans?
No bookmaker has posted a line for this game yet, so there is no spread, total or moneyline to quote. The model total is 234.6, but it cannot be compared with a market total until one is posted.
What time is Nuggets vs Pelicans on 14 November?
Tip is at 7:00 PM ET on Saturday 14 November, with the Denver Nuggets visiting the New Orleans Pelicans in New Orleans. Check team news again closer to tip, as the Pelicans' injury report is long.
Which injuries matter most for the Pelicans?
Trey Murphy III, Yves Missi, Bennedict Mathurin and Bryce McGowens were listed as doubtful, and Trendon Watford was out. Murphy matters most for wing scoring and shooting. Missi and Watford leave the frontcourt thin against Nikola Jokic.
Have the Nuggets beaten the Pelicans this season?
Yes, twice. Denver won 141-135 at home on 24 October and 104-91 in New Orleans on 28 October. The Pelicans have since lost their last four games, while the Nuggets are 6-4 over their last 10.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Denver Nuggets or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 72% win probability, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 28%. Over their last five games the New Orleans Pelicans are 1-4 and the Denver Nuggets are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans?

No spread or total is posted yet for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans?

For Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, the model projects Zion Williamson for 19.0 points and Jeremiah Fears for 15.3 points for the New Orleans Pelicans. For the Denver Nuggets it projects Nikola Jokic for 25.0 points and Jamal Murray for 25.0 points.