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Fri, Nov 138:00 PMETMiami
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 13

Updated Nov 12, with the latest lineups and odds

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MIA

Statz pick

Miami Heat to win

We give the Miami Heat a 51% chance, against 49% for the Cleveland Cavaliers. See the full projection →

51%
MIA to win
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The Statz model makes the Miami Heat a narrow favourite at 51% against the Cleveland Cavaliers at 49%, with a model line of -0.3 and a projected total of 236.8. No bookmaker has posted a market line yet, so there is no price to compare. The one injury that matters is Sam Merrill, out for Cleveland.

The Cleveland Cavaliers visit the Miami Heat in Miami on Friday 13 November, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model favours the Heat at 51%, with the Cavaliers at 49%. That is close to a coin flip. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market spread, total or moneyline to set against the model. Check the NBA odds page once prices appear.

How the teams arrive

Miami are 5-5 over their last 10, with a sequence of W W L W L W W L L L, reading from the most recent game back. They average 116.7 points for and allow 118.9. The run has been mostly on the road. The Heat won at Utah 115-109 and at Sacramento 114-108, then lost at Golden State 100-120. The standout scores are a 145-125 home win over Indiana and a 117-138 loss at the Lakers. This is a team that swings hard in both directions.

Cleveland are also 5-5 over their last 10, with a sequence of W L L W L L W L W W. They score 116.6 and concede 113.7, a better defensive figure than Miami's. The Cavaliers won 115-107 at the Knicks in their latest game. Before that they lost 112-124 at Charlotte and 97-109 at home to the Knicks. The high point was a 136-111 win at Milwaukee, and they also beat Philadelphia 119-95 at home. They arrive on the road, where their last two results were a loss and a win.

Team news and lineups

Miami Heat have nobody on the injury report. That means the rotation should be at full strength, and minutes should follow the usual pattern without any scramble for replacements.

Cleveland are not as clean. Sam Merrill is listed as out with an elbow problem that has lingered since the preseason. His return date is 16 November, so he is not expected to play here. His absence matters for depth and shooting off the bench. Craig Porter, Meleek Thomas and Tyrese Proctor should see more minutes while he is sidelined.

The practical effect is a thinner Cleveland guard rotation against a Miami side with no absences. It is not a large shift, which is why the model still has this game as nearly even.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Giannis Antetokounmpo is projected for 25.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 5.3 assists. He is the biggest source of Miami's projected output and the main reason the model leans their way.

Bam Adebayo

Bam Adebayo is projected for 17.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists. He gives Miami a second interior scorer and rebounder, and he should take on much of the work against Cleveland's size.

Davion Mitchell

Davion Mitchell is projected for 13.3 points, 7.1 assists and 2.0 made threes. He is the playmaking piece, and his assist number is the one to watch for how Miami's offence flows.

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is projected for 21.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.4 assists and 2.6 made threes. He is Cleveland's top scorer in the projection and carries the load with Merrill out.

James Harden

James Harden is projected for 16.8 points, 6.4 assists and 2.9 made threes. His creation and perimeter shooting give the Cavaliers a second ball handler who can set up the offence.

Evan Mobley

Evan Mobley is projected for 15.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.4 assists. He is Cleveland's best answer to Antetokounmpo and Adebayo, and his defence will shape how Miami scores inside.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Miami Heat. It gives them a 51% win probability, with the Cleveland Cavaliers at 49%, and a model line of -0.3 for Miami against +0.3 for Cleveland. It projects Miami to score 118.6 and Cleveland 118.3, for a total of 236.8.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so the market side of the comparison is missing and we cannot say whether the model line differs from the price. For the same reason we have no over or under lean on the 236.8 total. We need a posted number first.

This is a near even game. Miami's home court and a full roster against Cleveland's missing Merrill explain the slim edge, while Cleveland's better defensive figure keeps it small. Treat the edge as marginal.

Statz pick: Miami Heat, model line -0.3, 51% win probability.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest prices and the injury report before you decide.

CLE @ MIA questions

Who does the Statz model favour in Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat?
The Statz model favours the Miami Heat at 51%, with the Cleveland Cavaliers at 49%. The model line is Heat -0.3, Cavaliers +0.3. It is a very narrow edge, close to even, for the game on Friday 13 November.
What time is Cavaliers at Heat on 13 November?
Tip is at 8:00 PM ET on Friday 13 November 2026, in Miami. The Miami Heat are the home team and the Cleveland Cavaliers are the visitors.
What is the projected total for Cavaliers vs Heat?
The Statz model projects a total of 236.8 points, with the Miami Heat at 118.6 and the Cleveland Cavaliers at 118.3. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Who is injured for Cleveland and Miami?
Sam Merrill is out for the Cleveland Cavaliers with an elbow issue, and his listed return date is 16 November. The Miami Heat have nobody on the injury report, so they should be at full strength.
How have the Heat and Cavaliers played recently?
Both teams are 5-5 over their last 10. Miami average 116.7 points for and allow 118.9. Cleveland average 116.6 for and allow 113.7. The Cavaliers won 115-107 at the Knicks in their latest game.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Cleveland Cavaliers or Miami Heat?

The Statz model favours the Miami Heat with a 51% win probability, leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers at 49%. Over their last five games the Miami Heat are 3-2 and the Cleveland Cavaliers are 2-3. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat?

No spread or total is posted yet for Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat?

For Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat, the model projects Giannis Antetokounmpo for 25.8 points and Bam Adebayo for 17.8 points for the Miami Heat. For the Cleveland Cavaliers it projects Donovan Mitchell for 21.3 points and James Harden for 16.8 points.