Dallas MavericksMavericks
Sat, Nov 147:30 PMETCleveland
Cleveland CavaliersCavaliers
DAL2.41CLE1.71via Polymarket

Dallas Mavericks vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 14

Updated Nov 13, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

CLE

Statz pick

Cleveland Cavaliers to win

We give the Cleveland Cavaliers a 64% chance, against 36% for the Dallas Mavericks. See the full projection →

64%
CLE to win
Polymarket1.71

The Statz model favours the Cleveland Cavaliers at 64% to beat the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday 14 November, with a model line of -4.9 and a projected total of 230.6. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most is Evan Mobley, who is out for Cleveland.

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Cleveland Cavaliers on Saturday 14 November, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes Cleveland the favourite at 64% to win, with a model line of -4.9. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so the market side of the picture is still empty. Here is what the numbers say and why.

How the teams arrive

Cleveland are 5-5 over their last 10, with a sequence of W L L W L L W L W W. They average 116.6 points for and 113.7 against, a thin margin. The highs are real: 136-111 at Milwaukee, 119-95 against Philadelphia and a 115-107 win at New York on 11 November. The lows are just as clear, a 112-124 loss at Charlotte and a 97-109 home loss to the Knicks. They are playing this one at home.

Dallas are 6-4 over the same span, with a sequence of L W W W L L W W W L. They average 112.7 points for and 111.3 against. Their best recent results came at home: 130-93 against Brooklyn and 125-122 against Indiana. Their latest game was the reverse, a 94-133 loss at Minnesota on 12 November. That is a heavy defeat, and it came on the road, which is where they play tonight. Their one-point loss at San Antonio, 111-112, shows how close their games run.

Team news and lineups

Cleveland carry the bigger problem. Evan Mobley is out with a sprained left great toe after a hard fall against the Knicks. His listed return date is 14 November, the day of this game, so his status deserves a check before tip. If he sits, the frontcourt rebounding and rim protection fall on others. Sam Merrill is out with right elbow injury management, with a return date listed as 16 November. Reporting points to Craig Porter, Meleek Thomas and Tyrese Proctor taking extra minutes in the backcourt. Khalifa Diop is on a G League assignment, Nae'Qwan Tomlin is out with a low back stress reaction, and Ernest Udeh, Jr. is on a two-way G League deal.

Dallas are without three players. Dereck Lively II is out as he works back from foot surgery and is week-to-week, with a return date of 18 November. His absence leaves Morez Johnson, Santi Aldama and Moussa Cisse in line for minutes at centre. Tarik Biberovic has right heel bursitis and no timetable for his debut. Sergio De Larrea has not played since 26 October with a right knee sprain and is also week-to-week.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Donovan Mitchell

Donovan Mitchell is projected for 21.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 2.3 threes. With Mobley and Merrill out, Cleveland lean on his shot creation, and his output is the main driver of the home side's 117.8 projected points.

James Harden

James Harden is projected for 16.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 2.5 threes. His passing volume is the second highest of anyone in the model for Cleveland. He sets the pace when the rotation is thin.

Jarrett Allen

Jarrett Allen is projected for 12.4 points and 7.3 rebounds. Allen matters most on the glass and at the rim while Mobley is out, because there is little cover behind him.

Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg is projected for 21.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 5.5 assists. He is the most complete player on the Dallas side and the main reason the road team projects to 112.9 points.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving is projected for 18.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 2.7 threes. That three-point number is the highest of any player in either projection. If Dallas keep this close, it will be on his shooting.

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington is projected for 12.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and 2.0 threes. With Lively out, his rebounding carries extra weight for Dallas, and his shooting gives them a third scoring option.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Cleveland Cavaliers. It gives them a 64% win probability and a projected home margin that produces a model line of -4.9, with Dallas at +4.9. The projected score is 117.8 to 112.9, and the model total is 230.6.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether the model sees an edge on the side or the total, and we make no total lean until a number appears. Cleveland's absences, Mobley above all, are the main risk to the home side, and the model is already built around this game's injury picture.

Statz pick: Cleveland Cavaliers, 64% win probability, model line -4.9.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest on our NBA odds page and the full preview, and recheck Mobley's status.

DAL @ CLE questions

Who does the Statz model favour, Dallas Mavericks or Cleveland Cavaliers?
The Statz model favours the Cleveland Cavaliers at 64% to win, with the Dallas Mavericks at 36%. The model line is Cleveland -4.9 and Dallas +4.9, based on a projected score of 117.8 to 112.9.
What is the model total for Mavericks at Cavaliers?
The model total is 230.6 points, built from 117.8 for Cleveland and 112.9 for Dallas. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with and no total lean.
What time is Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers?
The game is on Saturday 14 November, with tip at 7:30 PM ET. Cleveland are the home team. Lines and injury statuses can change before tip, so check for updates close to the start.
Which injuries matter most in this game?
Evan Mobley is out for Cleveland with a sprained left great toe, though his listed return date is 14 November. Sam Merrill is also out. For Dallas, Dereck Lively II is out after foot surgery and is week-to-week.
How have the two teams played lately?
Cleveland are 5-5 in their last 10, averaging 116.6 points for and 113.7 against. Dallas are 6-4, averaging 112.7 for and 111.3 against. Dallas lost their latest game 94-133 at Minnesota.
Are betting odds available for this game?
Not yet. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no market comparison to make. The model line is Cleveland -4.9 with a 230.6 total. Check the Statz odds page for updates.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Dallas Mavericks or Cleveland Cavaliers?

The Statz model favours the Cleveland Cavaliers with a 64% win probability, leaving the Dallas Mavericks at 36%. Over their last five games the Cleveland Cavaliers are 2-3 and the Dallas Mavericks are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers?

No spread or total is posted yet for Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers?

For Dallas Mavericks at Cleveland Cavaliers, the model projects Donovan Mitchell for 21.1 points and James Harden for 16.6 points for the Cleveland Cavaliers. For the Dallas Mavericks it projects Cooper Flagg for 21.2 points and Kyrie Irving for 18.6 points.