Chicago Bulls vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 14

Minnesota arrives at 7-3 over its last 10 games, with four straight wins before a recent run of five wins in six. The team averages 118.6 points for and allows 107.2 in that stretch. The latest result is the loudest: a 133-94 home win over Dallas on Thursday. Before that came a 115-100 win over Utah at home and a 127-101 win over the Clippers. The three losses in the span were close or on the road: 111-121 at San Antonio, 114-119 against Golden State and 125-127 at Cleveland. This is a home game for the Timberwolves, who have scored well in front of their own crowd.

Chicago is 1-9 over its last 10 and has lost eight straight since a 132-125 win at Milwaukee on 23 October. The Bulls score 113.3 and concede 128.8 per game in that span, and the defence is the problem. They allowed 135 at New York, 134 at Boston and 135 at Toronto. Most recently they lost 119-124 to San Antonio and 121-127 to Philadelphia, both at home. The offence can keep a game close. The defence has not held up on any recent night. Saturday is a road game.

The biggest absence is Anthony Edwards. He had a successful arthroscopic procedure on his right knee, and the team has given no timetable. Earlier reporting suggested he could miss up to two months, and the data lists a return date of 21 December. He was averaging 33.3 points across four appearances, so his usage and shot volume have to go elsewhere. Expect more creation and shot attempts for the other guards and wings, and that is why the model still gives Minnesota 125.5 points.

Donte DiVincenzo is also out. He is rehabbing a torn right Achilles and has no firm timetable, with the data showing 2 April as a return date. He is not part of tonight's rotation, so his absence is already built into how Minnesota is playing.

Chicago has two names listed out. Tobe Awaka is out with disc irritation in his back and has missed consecutive games. Reports pointed to Saturday as his next chance to play, so watch the final status. Caleb Wilson, the rookie forward, fractured his right hand and is expected to miss four to six weeks, with a return date of 13 December. His loss thins the frontcourt and puts more pressure on Josh Giddey to run the offence. For a team conceding almost 129 a game, losing forward depth is not what it needs.

The model takes the Minnesota Timberwolves. It gives them 84% to win and a model line of -13.2, with a projected total of 237.8 and a score of 125.5 to 112.3. The case is simple. Minnesota is 7-3 in its last 10 and just won 133-94. Chicago is 1-9 and has been beaten badly on defence, and it is down two more bodies.

There is no comparison against the market, because the market is the missing piece. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so there is no edge to measure and no total lean to give. Once lines are up, compare the posted spread with the -13.2 model line and the posted total with 237.8. A large spread would take away some of the value of backing the favourite.

Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves to win, 84% model win probability, model line -13.2.

Lines move before tip, and the injury news on Awaka could change the picture, so check the numbers close to game time.