Dallas MavericksMavericks
Sun, Nov 156:00 PMETBoston
Boston CelticsCeltics
DAL5.71BOS1.21via Polymarket

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 15

Updated Nov 14, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

BOS

Statz pick

Boston Celtics to win

We give the Boston Celtics a 73% chance, against 27% for the Dallas Mavericks. See the full projection →

73%
BOS to win
Polymarket1.21

The Statz model favours the Boston Celtics at 73% to beat the Dallas Mavericks, with a model line of -8.3 and a projected total of 220.0. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Paul George, who is day-to-day for Boston.

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Boston Celtics on Sunday 15 November, with tip at 6:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Boston the favourite at 73%, with Dallas at 27%. The model line is Boston -8.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

Boston come in hot and at home. They are 9-1 over their last 10, with the one loss a 93-109 defeat at Houston. They have won at Toronto 98-93, at Philadelphia 123-101, at Milwaukee 117-97 and at Charlotte 119-80. Over the 10 games they average 115.1 points for and 101.3 against. That gap is the story: the defence travels.

Dallas arrive at 6-4 over their last 10 and on the road. Their latest game was a 94-133 loss at Minnesota, a heavy one. Before that they beat Indiana 125-122 and Brooklyn 130-93. They also lost 111-112 at San Antonio and 100-115 to Sacramento. They average 112.7 points for and 111.3 against, so the margin is thin.

Team news and lineups

The big question is on the Boston side. Paul George is day-to-day with an illness. He sat out the Toronto game, and the report points to this game as his next opportunity to play. If he is out, Baylor Scheierman, Sam Hauser and Hugo Gonzalez are the candidates for extra minutes. That would push more of the scoring load onto the main creators.

Dallas are missing three players, all listed as out. Dereck Lively II is recovering from right foot surgery and is classed as week-to-week. His absence leaves the centre minutes to be shared. Santi Aldama and Moussa Cisse are in line for time there, along with Morez Johnson, who is dealing with a shin issue. That thins the interior against a Boston side that has been scoring freely.

Tarik Biberovic has right heel bursitis and has no timetable for his season debut. Sergio De Larrea has a right knee sprain and has not played since 26 October. Both are listed with a return date of 18 November, so neither is expected tonight.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Jayson Tatum

Jayson Tatum is projected for 23.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, 5.9 assists and 2.4 threes. He is the focal point of the Boston offence, and his role grows if George is limited or out.

Paul George

Paul George is projected for 16.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 2.3 threes. That line assumes he plays. His status is the main swing factor on the Boston side.

Payton Pritchard

Payton Pritchard is projected for 13.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.1 threes. He gives Boston a shooting threat off the dribble and is a natural beneficiary if George sits.

Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg is projected for 19.8 points, 6.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.3 threes. He leads the Dallas projection, and the Mavericks need him to create against a Boston defence that has allowed 101.3 points a game over the last 10.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving is projected for 17.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.7 threes. That three-point number is the highest on either roster in this projection. His shotmaking is how Dallas can stay close.

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington is projected for 12.1 points, 6.3 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 2.0 threes. With Lively out, his rebounding matters more than his scoring.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Boston Celtics. It gives them a 73% win probability and a model line of -8.3, with projected scores of 114.1 for Boston and 105.9 for Dallas. The Mavericks' model line is +8.3. The projected total is 220.0.

There is no market to compare against. No bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline, so we cannot say whether the model sees value or give a total lean. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear, and compare them with the model numbers above. George's status is the main thing to watch, since it can shift the line.

Statz pick: Boston Celtics, model line -8.3, 73% win probability. This is a model view, not a market price. Lines move before tip, so confirm the number you are getting. No result is certain.

DAL @ BOS questions

Who does the Statz model favour, Boston Celtics or Dallas Mavericks?
The Statz model favours the Boston Celtics at 73%, with the Dallas Mavericks at 27%. The model line is Boston -8.3, and the projected score is 114.1 to 105.9 in Boston's favour.
What is the projected total for Mavericks at Celtics?
The model projects a total of 220.0 points, built from 114.1 for the Boston Celtics and 105.9 for the Dallas Mavericks. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Is Paul George playing for the Celtics?
Paul George is listed as day-to-day with an illness. He missed the Toronto game, and his next opportunity to play is this one against Dallas. If he sits, Baylor Scheierman, Sam Hauser and Hugo Gonzalez are candidates for more minutes.
Which Dallas Mavericks players are out?
Dereck Lively II (right foot surgery), Tarik Biberovic (right heel bursitis) and Sergio De Larrea (right knee sprain) are all listed as out. Each has a return date of 18 November, so none is expected to play on Sunday.
How have the Celtics and Mavericks played recently?
Boston are 9-1 over their last 10 and average 115.1 points for and 101.3 against. Dallas are 6-4 and average 112.7 for and 111.3 against. Dallas lost 94-133 at Minnesota in their most recent game.

More NBA previews

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. Odds are subject to change.

Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Dallas Mavericks or Boston Celtics?

The Statz model favours the Boston Celtics with a 73% win probability, leaving the Dallas Mavericks at 27%. Over their last five games the Boston Celtics are 5-0 and the Dallas Mavericks are 3-2. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics?

No spread or total is posted yet for Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics?

For Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics, the model projects Jayson Tatum for 23.8 points and Paul George for 16.5 points for the Boston Celtics. For the Dallas Mavericks it projects Cooper Flagg for 19.8 points and Kyrie Irving for 17.4 points.