San Antonio SpursSpurs
Sun, Nov 155:00 PMETUtah
Utah JazzJazz
SAS1.12UTA9.09via Polymarket

San Antonio Spurs vs Utah Jazz Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 15

Updated Nov 14, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

SAS

Statz pick

San Antonio Spurs to win

We give the San Antonio Spurs a 89% chance, against 11% for the Utah Jazz. See the full projection →

89%
SAS to win
Polymarket1.12

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 89% to beat the Utah Jazz on Sunday 15 November, with a projected margin of 16.2 points and a model total of 224.3. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters most: Jaren Jackson Jr. is out with a torn MCL, which leaves Utah's frontcourt badly thin.

The San Antonio Spurs visit the Utah Jazz on Sunday 15 November, with tip at 5:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Spurs the clear favourite at 89% to win. The market has not caught up yet: no bookmaker has posted a spread, total or moneyline for this game, so the only numbers to work from are the model's own.

How the teams arrive

San Antonio arrive 10-0 over their last 10, and that run is the whole of their season so far. They average 121.7 points for and concede 104.5. The scores that stand out are a 123-85 home win over GSW on Friday and a 122-96 win at PHX. They also won a 124-119 game at CHI, which shows they can win a closer one on the road. Two of the ten wins came against Utah: 117-111 at Utah on 28 October and 119-97 at home on 2 November. Tonight is another road game.

Utah are 0-10 over their last 10, so they have not won all season. They score 105.1 and concede 116.8. Friday brought a 118-125 loss at HOU, and before that a 108-123 home loss to ORL. The sharpest drop was a 90-112 home loss to POR. The closest games were a 105-110 home loss to MEM and a 109-115 home loss to MIA. Utah have lost five home games in a row at their own arena, and the two losses to San Antonio were among them.

Team news and lineups

The injury list is the most important context for Utah. Jaren Jackson Jr. has a torn MCL and is out for 6-to-8 weeks. Lauri Markkanen has a non-displaced fracture in his right hand and is out for at least one month. Jusuf Nurkic is still recovering from a right foot injury and is due a re-evaluation in two weeks. Trey Alexander is out with a left knee bone bruise.

Jaxson Hayes is day-to-day after leaving Friday's game against the Rockets with a left knee issue. He missed the entire second half. If he cannot go, the minutes at centre fall to Mo Bamba and Kyle Filipowski. With Jackson, Markkanen and Nurkic all out, Utah have almost no size left to protect the rim. That is a poor matchup against a team with Victor Wembanyama. The scoring load shifts to Ace Bailey and Darryn Peterson, while Isaiah Collier, Brice Sensabaugh, Svi Mykhailiuk, Josh Okogie and Josh Green are candidates for bigger roles.

San Antonio are missing less. Jayden Quaintance has not been cleared for basketball activities as he comes back from a torn ACL and meniscus. Tobias Harris is out with a calf issue and has yet to make his Spurs debut this season. Julian Champagnie picks up the wing minutes. Neither absence changes the core of the rotation.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama is projected for 24.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.7 threes. He is the main reason the model is so confident. Utah have no obvious answer to him on either end of the floor.

Dylan Harper

Dylan Harper is projected for 15.7 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists. He is the second scoring option, and his line gives San Antonio a steady guard presence against a thin Jazz defence.

Stephon Castle

Stephon Castle is projected for 14.5 points, 5.2 rebounds and 5.2 assists. His all-round line is what makes the Spurs hard to stop when the game gets loose.

Keyonte George

Keyonte George is projected for 19.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 1.9 threes, the highest scoring line on Utah. His ankle sprain was described as unclear in recent reports, so check his status before tip. If he plays, he carries the offence.

Darryn Peterson

Darryn Peterson is projected for 15.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists and 2.0 threes. With so many players out, he is one of two scorers the Jazz need to lead.

Airious Bailey

Airious Bailey is projected for 14.8 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.8 threes. He could see more time at power forward with the bigs out, and he is Utah's best hope of competing on the glass.

Statz prediction

The model takes the San Antonio Spurs at 89%. It projects a 16.2-point win, which is a model line of -16.2 for the Spurs and +16.2 for the Utah Jazz. It has San Antonio scoring 120.2 and Utah 104.0, for a model total of 224.3.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a line for this game, so we cannot say whether the spread or the total offers value. Wait for the numbers on the NBA odds page before you act. The model total sits above what either team's recent scoring suggests for Utah, so the total is worth a look once a line appears.

Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs -16.2 (model line), model total 224.3. This is a model view, not a posted price. Lines move before tip, so check the final numbers and Hayes and George's status first.

SAS @ UTA questions

Who does the model favour in Spurs vs Jazz?
The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 89% to win. It projects a margin of 16.2 points, giving the Spurs a model line of -16.2 and the Utah Jazz +16.2 for the game on Sunday 15 November.
What is the model total for Spurs vs Jazz?
The model total is 224.3 points. It has the San Antonio Spurs scoring 120.2 and the Utah Jazz scoring 104.0. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
What time is Spurs at Jazz?
Tip is at 5:00 PM ET on Sunday 15 November, with the Utah Jazz at home against the San Antonio Spurs. Check injury news before tip, as Jaxson Hayes is day-to-day for Utah with a left knee issue.
Which Jazz players are injured?
Jaren Jackson Jr. (torn MCL, 6-to-8 weeks), Lauri Markkanen (hand fracture, at least one month), Jusuf Nurkic (foot) and Trey Alexander (knee) are out. Jaxson Hayes is day-to-day after leaving Friday's game with a left knee issue.
How have the Spurs and Jazz played lately?
San Antonio are 10-0 over their last 10, scoring 121.7 and conceding 104.5 on average. Utah are 0-10 over their last 10, scoring 105.1 and conceding 116.8. The Spurs beat Utah 117-111 and 119-97 earlier this season.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, San Antonio Spurs or Utah Jazz?

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs with a 89% win probability, leaving the Utah Jazz at 11%. Over their last five games the Utah Jazz are 0-5 and the San Antonio Spurs are 5-0. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz?

No spread or total is posted yet for San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz?

For San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz, the model projects Keyonte George for 19.8 points and Darryn Peterson for 15.7 points for the Utah Jazz. For the San Antonio Spurs it projects Victor Wembanyama for 24.8 points and Dylan Harper for 15.7 points.