Oklahoma City ThunderThunder
Wed, Oct 289:30 PMETDallas
Dallas MavericksMavericks
OKC1.50DAL2.99SpreadDAL +6.5Total228.5via Polymarket

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

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OKC

Statz pick

Oklahoma City Thunder to win

We give the Oklahoma City Thunder a 72% chance, against 28% for the Dallas Mavericks. See the full projection →

72%
OKC to win
Polymarket1.50

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 72% to beat the Dallas Mavericks, with a projected margin of 7.5 points against a market line of -5.5. The injury that matters most is Chet Holmgren, one of six Thunder players ruled out, and the model total of 229.2 sits close to the market 229.5.

The Oklahoma City Thunder visit the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 9:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Thunder 72% favourites and projects a 7.5-point win. The market is tighter, with the Thunder at -5.5 at most books.

How the teams arrive

The Thunder are 4-0 this season and have won every game. They beat Phoenix 125-114 and the Clippers 108-101 at home, then Denver 96-84, after a 116-104 win at San Antonio. They average 111.3 points for and allow 100.8, and that defence is the story of their start.

The Mavericks are 2-2 and arrive in mixed form (W L W L). They won 113-109 at Miami on Monday and 121-105 at Indiana, but lost 106-122 at home to San Antonio and 110-128 at Houston. They average 112.5 points for and concede 116.0, so the defence is the concern.

Team news and lineups

The Thunder injury list is the bigger story. Six players are out: Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic and Alex Caruso. Wallace and Williams face long absences, with a return date of 2 March 2027 listed for both. Holmgren (knee) and Caruso (ankle) are listed to return on 31 October, so their absence is short term. Holmgren is the one that matters for this game, because he leaves the frontcourt thin. Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams and Brooks Barnhizer are the candidates for extra minutes. Caruso's absence also lifts Kenrich Williams and Bennett Stirtz.

The Mavericks are missing Dereck Lively II (foot surgery) and Sergio De Larrea (knee sprain). Lively has no clear timetable, so Moussa Cisse and Morez Johnson are candidates for more minutes at centre. De Larrea is listed to return on 30 October, and Marcus Sasser could see a slight bump in minutes.

The Thunder are shorter on depth. That should push more of the load onto their top few players.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg is projected for 21.5 points, 7.0 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He is the Mavericks' main creator, and Dallas needs his scoring to keep pace.

Kyrie Irving

Kyrie Irving is projected for 19.7 points, 4.5 assists and 2.4 threes. His shooting is the Mavericks' best route to a close game.

P.J. Washington

P.J. Washington is projected for 13.9 points and 7.8 rebounds. With Lively out, his rebounding matters more.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for 32.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.0 assists. The model leans on him heavily with so many teammates out.

Ajay Mitchell

Ajay Mitchell is projected for 13.4 points and 3.7 assists. He is the secondary creator on a thin roster.

Jared McCain

Jared McCain is projected for 12.5 points and 2.8 threes. That is the highest three-point projection on the Thunder side.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Safer4 legs

Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.

  • Player
    Jared McCain
    Under 6.5 Reb + Ast · 4/5 last 5 · 82.8%
    BetParx1.68
  • Player
    Ajay Mitchell
    Under 18.5 Points · 4/5 last 5 · 78.1%
    Caesars1.88
  • Player
    Daniel Gafford
    Under 9.5 Points · 4/5 last 5 · 76.6%
    Caesars1.83
  • OKC
    Oklahoma City Thunder
    Moneyline · 71.7%
    Bally Bet1.48

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 8.55.

Market 9.4%Statz 35.5%+26.1%
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Daniel Gafford
    Under 16.5 Pts + Reb · 3/5 last 5 · 84.1%
    PP2.00
  • Player
    Jared McCain
    Under 2.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 78.2%
    BetParx2.04
  • Player
    Ajay Mitchell
    Under 26.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 3/5 last 5 · 80.1%
    FanDuel1.93
  • Player
    Max Christie
    Under 16.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 3/5 last 5 · 74.5%
    BetParx1.80

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 14.17.

Market 5.5%Statz 39.2%+33.7%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Oklahoma City Thunder. It gives them a 72% win probability and a projected margin of 7.5 points, so its Mavericks line is +7.5 against a market line of +5.5. That is a gap of 2.0 points on the spread, and it points to the Thunder.

The total is a different story. The model projects 229.2 against a market line of 229.5, a gap of 0.3 points. The model leans to neither side, so there is no total lean here.

The depth concerns on the Thunder side are real, and they are the main reason to respect the Mavericks as underdogs. The model still sees the gap in quality.

Statz pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -5.5 at 1.87 (FanDuel). Lines move before tip, so check the latest NBA odds.

OKC @ DAL questions

Who does the model favour in Thunder vs Mavericks?
The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder at 72% to win, with a projected margin of 7.5 points. The Dallas Mavericks are given 28%. The market also makes the Thunder the favourite, at -5.5 at most books.
What is the spread for Thunder at Mavericks?
The market has the Thunder at -5.5 and the Mavericks at +5.5 at most books, with FanDuel offering 1.87 on the Thunder and 1.95 on the Mavericks. The model line is Thunder -7.5, a 2.0-point gap.
What is the over/under for this game?
The market total is 229.5 at most books, with Rebet offering 1.91 on both the over and the under. The model projects 229.2, a gap of 0.3 points, and leans to neither side.
Who is injured for the Thunder?
Six Thunder players are out: Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic and Alex Caruso. Holmgren, with a knee problem, matters most for tonight because it leaves the frontcourt thin.
Who is injured for the Mavericks?
The Dallas Mavericks are without Dereck Lively II, who is recovering from foot surgery with no clear timetable, and Sergio De Larrea, who has a knee sprain. De Larrea is listed to return on 30 October.
What time is Thunder vs Mavericks?
The game is on Wednesday 28 October in Dallas, with tip at 9:30 PM ET. The Thunder are 4-0 this season, while the Mavericks are 2-2.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Oklahoma City Thunder or Dallas Mavericks?

The Statz model favours the Oklahoma City Thunder with a 72% win probability, leaving the Dallas Mavericks at 28%. Draftkings agrees, pricing the Oklahoma City Thunder as the favourite at -5.5 on the spread. The moneyline is +190 for the Dallas Mavericks and -230 for the Oklahoma City Thunder.

What is the spread and total for Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks?

Draftkings lists the Dallas Mavericks at +5.5 with the total at 229.5 for Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks?

The board's headline lines are Isaiah Hartenstein 19.5+ rebounds at 30.00, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 49.5+ points at 13.00 and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 13.5+ assists at 36.00. For the Dallas Mavericks the model projects Cooper Flagg for 21.5 points and Kyrie Irving for 19.7 points. For the Oklahoma City Thunder it projects Shai Gilgeous-Alexander for 32.5 points and Ajay Mitchell for 13.4 points.