Golden State WarriorsWarriors
Fri, Nov 139:30 PMETSan Antonio
San Antonio SpursSpurs
GSW5.71SAS1.21via Polymarket

Golden State Warriors vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds for November 13

Updated Nov 12, with the latest lineups and odds

By · Published

SAS

Statz pick

San Antonio Spurs to win

We give the San Antonio Spurs a 71% chance, against 29% for the Golden State Warriors. See the full projection →

71%
SAS to win
Polymarket1.21

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 71% to beat the Golden State Warriors on Friday 13 November, with a model line of Spurs -7.6 and a projected total of 226.7. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market comparison. The injury that matters is Stephen Curry, who is highly questionable.

The Golden State Warriors visit the San Antonio Spurs on Friday 13 November, with tip-off at 9:30 PM ET. The Statz model makes the Spurs the favourite at 71%, with a model line of -7.6. No bookmaker has posted a line yet, so there is no market number to set against it.

How the teams arrive

The Spurs are 10-0 over their last 10 games, averaging 121.6 points for and conceding 106.6. The run includes a 124-119 win at Chicago and a 112-111 home win over Dallas. They also beat Phoenix 122-96 on the road and Sacramento 130-103 at home. Five of the last six were away from home, and none were lost.

The Warriors are 8-2 over their last 10, averaging 121.9 points for and conceding 110.0. They beat New Orleans 138-87 and Orlando 126-119 at home. The most recent game was a 108-115 loss at Houston, which ended an eight-game winning run. The other defeat was 122-131 at Phoenix. Friday is a road game for them.

Team news and lineups

The Warriors have the bigger problem. Stephen Curry is day-to-day with an abdominal issue. Steve Kerr described the concern level as high, an MRI is pending, and Curry is considered highly questionable. If he sits, De'Anthony Melton takes the minutes at guard, and Brandin Podziemski and Yaxel Lendeborg should see more offensive work.

The depth behind him is thin. Kristaps Porzingis has stepped away from basketball. Jimmy Butler (knee) and Moses Moody (knee) are both out. Gary Payton II (knee) is out, and Brandon Williams has a hamstring strain, with a return date listed as 22 November. Melton is likely to carry more of the backcourt load.

The Spurs are also short. Devin Vassell has missed consecutive games with an adductor injury. Tobias Harris (calf) has yet to make his Spurs debut, with a return date listed as 19 November. Jayden Quaintance is out as he recovers from knee surgery, with 3 December listed. Wing minutes fall to Julian Champagnie. The Spurs absences cost depth. The Warriors absences could cost a star.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama is projected for 25.1 points, 10.1 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.8 three-pointers. He is the centre of the Spurs' case. With the Warriors thin up front and on the wing, his inside scoring and rim protection decide how much room San Antonio has.

Dylan Harper

Dylan Harper is projected for 15.6 points, 4.4 rebounds and 4.3 assists. With Vassell out, the Spurs need secondary creation, and Harper supplies it against a backcourt that may be missing Curry.

De'Aaron Fox

De'Aaron Fox is projected for 14.0 points, 3.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists. His pace and playmaking matter most against a Warriors rotation without Payton and Williams.

Yaxel Lendeborg

Yaxel Lendeborg is projected for 18.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.0 three-pointers, the top scoring projection on the Warriors. He is the one most likely to absorb Curry's shots if Curry is out.

Stephen Curry

Stephen Curry is projected for 18.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 2.9 three-pointers. That is the model's number, but it comes with a status caveat. If he is ruled out before tip, the Warriors' outlook shifts and the projection above no longer applies.

Brandin Podziemski

Brandin Podziemski is projected for 15.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.2 three-pointers. He is the Warriors guard whose workload rises most if Curry cannot go.

Statz prediction

The model takes the Spurs. They are 71% to win, with a model line of -7.6 and a projected score of 117.1 to 109.5. The projected total is 226.7. The price of the Spurs run is clear: they have won 10 straight and are at home. The Warriors have the better case only if Curry plays and the Spurs' missing wings matter more than the model allows.

There is no model-versus-market comparison to make, because the market is missing. No bookmaker has posted a spread or total for this game yet, so we cannot say whether the model line is a value or whether the total leans over or under. Check the NBA odds page once lines appear.

Statz pick: San Antonio Spurs, 71% win probability, model line -7.6.

Lines move before tip, and Curry's status is the main reason to expect that here.

GSW @ SAS questions

Who does the model favour in Warriors at Spurs?
The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs at 71% to win, with the Golden State Warriors at 29%. The model line is Spurs -7.6, and the projected score is 117.1 to 109.5 in San Antonio's favour.
What time is Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs?
Tip-off is at 9:30 PM ET on Friday 13 November 2026, with the game played in San Antonio. The Spurs are the home team and the Warriors are on the road.
Is Stephen Curry playing against the Spurs?
Curry is day-to-day with an abdominal issue and is considered highly questionable. Steve Kerr said the concern level is high and an MRI is awaited. If he is out, De'Anthony Melton is expected to take his minutes.
What is the projected total for this game?
The model projects a total of 226.7 points, with the Spurs at 117.1 and the Warriors at 109.5. No bookmaker has posted a total yet, so there is no market number to compare it with.
Which Spurs players are out?
Devin Vassell (adductor), Tobias Harris (calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee) are listed as out. Vassell has missed consecutive games and Harris has yet to debut for San Antonio. Julian Champagnie picks up wing minutes.
How have the two teams been playing?
The Spurs are 10-0 over their last 10 games, averaging 121.6 points and allowing 106.6. The Warriors are 8-2 over their last 10, averaging 121.9 and allowing 110.0. Golden State lost 108-115 at Houston most recently.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Golden State Warriors or San Antonio Spurs?

The Statz model favours the San Antonio Spurs with a 71% win probability, leaving the Golden State Warriors at 29%. Over their last five games the San Antonio Spurs are 5-0 and the Golden State Warriors are 4-1. The model's number comes from team-first projections that update through the day, so it can move before tip-off.

What is the spread and total for Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs?

No spread or total is posted yet for Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs; the odds board fills in once the books price the game. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price.

Which player props stand out for Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs?

For Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs, the model projects Victor Wembanyama for 25.1 points and Dylan Harper for 15.6 points for the San Antonio Spurs. For the Golden State Warriors it projects Yaxel Lendeborg for 18.7 points and Stephen Curry for 18.4 points.