We give the Minnesota Timberwolves a 65% chance, against 35% for the Golden State Warriors. See the full projection →
65%
MIN to win
1.68
The model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves at 65% to beat the Golden State Warriors, with a projected home line of -5.0 against a market line of -3.5. The injury that matters is Anthony Edwards, who is out after knee surgery news. The model also leans over the 225.5 total, projecting 229.5.
The Golden State Warriors visit the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The model makes Minnesota the favourite at 65%, while the market has the Timberwolves at -3.5. Both sides agree on the winner. They differ on the margin and on the total.
How the teams arrive
Minnesota is 3-1 this season, with a run of L W W W. The Timberwolves average 122.0 points for and 105.0 against. The standout scores are a 131-106 win at MIA, a 115-93 win at ORL and a 117-94 home win over TOR. The loss came 127-125 at CLE, a narrow one on the road. The defence has been the story.
Golden State is 1-3, with a run of W L L L. The Warriors average 117.3 points for and 120.8 against. They were beaten 127-105 at LAL, lost 111-108 at home to MEM and lost 131-122 at PHX. Then they went to DEN and won 134-114, the best result of their start. This is another road game for them.
Team news and lineups
Minnesota's big absence is Anthony Edwards, who is out with a right knee issue. Reporting says he will have arthroscopic surgery and could miss up to two months, with a listed return date of 21 December. That removes the team's top option on the ball. Usage should rise for LaMelo Ball, Jaden McDaniels and Jonathan Kuminga, and Ayo Dosunmu is expected to step into a bigger role. More minutes open up for Terrence Shannon, Bones Hyland and Cody Williams. Donte DiVincenzo is also out as he recovers from Achilles surgery, with no firm timetable from the club.
Golden State has three players out. Kristaps Porzingis is not with the team. He is dealing with recurring symptoms of an autoimmune condition, and the Warriors are reported to be exploring trades. Jimmy Butler is recovering from ACL surgery and could return between January and February. Moses Moody is out after patellar tendon surgery, with a potential return between December and January. The Warriors are thin on the wing and lack size, which puts more load on their remaining guards and forwards.
LaMelo Ball is projected for 22.0 points, 4.1 rebounds, 7.5 assists and 4.8 threes. With Edwards out, he is the engine of the Minnesota offence, and that three-point figure is the one to note.
Jaden McDaniels is projected for 17.1 points, 4.7 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He gains shots from the Edwards absence and still carries wing defence duties.
Ayo Dosunmu is projected for 15.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.0 threes. He is the expected beneficiary in the backcourt.
Stephen Curry is projected for 23.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists and 3.3 threes. He is the top scorer on either side, and Golden State's offence runs through him with so many teammates out.
Brandin Podziemski is projected for 16.1 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.4 assists. He gives the Warriors a second creator and a rebounding guard.
Gui Santos is projected for 11.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.8 assists. His minutes look secure given the wing injuries.
Same game parlays
Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.
Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.
Gui Santos
Under 1.5 Threes · 5/5 last 5 · 73.6%
1.69
Draymond Green
Under 1.5 Threes · 5/5 last 5 · 73.6%
PP1.62
LaMelo Ball
Under 4.5 Rebounds · 4/5 last 5 · 67.1%
2.16
Minnesota Timberwolves
Moneyline · 65%
1.67
9.23
Market 10.5%Statz 23.6%+13.1%
Edge4 legs
The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.
Yaxel Lendeborg
Under 28.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 1/4 last 5 · 92%
PP2.00
LaMelo Ball
Under 4.5 Rebounds · 4/5 last 5 · 67.1%
2.16
Brandin Podziemski
Under 3.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 62%
PP2.25
Jaden McDaniels
Under 4.5 Rebounds · 0/5 last 5 · 59.2%
2.15
PP19.85
Market 4.1%Statz 22.7%+18.6%
Scoring4 legs
Points, threes and the combination markets, over.
LaMelo Ball
Over 3.5 Threes · 2/5 last 5 · 66.4%
1.77
Ayo Dosunmu
Over 1.5 Threes · 0/5 last 5 · 53.5%
1.95
Gui Santos
Over 15.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 51.7%
1.88
Rudy Gobert
Over 22.5 Pts + Reb · 2/5 last 5 · 50.6%
PP2.00
11.01
Market 6.8%Statz 9.3%+2.5%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.
Statz Best Bets for this game
The props our model rates above their price, from the Best Bets board.
The model takes the Minnesota Timberwolves. It gives them a 65% win probability and a home line of -5.0. The market sits at -3.5, so the model is 1.5 points more bullish on the home side than the books. It projects Minnesota 117.2 and Golden State 112.3.
On the total, the model projects 229.5 against a market line of 225.5. That is a gap of 4.0 points, and the lean is the over. The Warriors have allowed 120.8 a game, and the Timberwolves have scored 122.0.
Statz pick: Minnesota Timberwolves -3.5 and over 225.5.
For a same game parlay to look at, the Scoring slip pairs LaMelo Ball Over 3.5 Threes, Ayo Dosunmu Over 1.5 Threes, Rudy Gobert Over 22.5 Pts + Reb and Jaden McDaniels Over 1.5 Threes. It is priced at 12.27 at DraftKings. See more on Same Game Parlays. Lines move before tip, so check the price before you bet.
GSW @ MIN questions
Who is favoured in Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves?
The model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 65% win probability. The market agrees on the side and has Minnesota at -3.5, while the model's own home line is -5.0.
What is the model's total for this game?
The model projects 229.5 total points, against a market total of 225.5. That is a gap of 4.0 points, and the model leans to the over.
Is Anthony Edwards playing for the Timberwolves?
No. Anthony Edwards is listed as out with a right knee issue. Reporting says he will have arthroscopic surgery and could miss up to two months, with a listed return date of 21 December.
Who is out for the Golden State Warriors?
Kristaps Porzingis, Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody are all listed as out. Porzingis is not with the team, Butler is recovering from ACL surgery and Moody from patellar tendon surgery.
How have the two teams started the season?
Minnesota is 3-1, averaging 122.0 points for and 105.0 against. Golden State is 1-3, averaging 117.3 for and 120.8 against, and it won 134-114 at DEN in its latest game.
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Quick answers3 questions
Who is favoured, Golden State Warriors or Minnesota Timberwolves?
The Statz model favours the Minnesota Timberwolves with a 65% win probability, leaving the Golden State Warriors at 35%. Bet365 leans the other way, pricing the Golden State Warriors as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is -161 for the Minnesota Timberwolves and +136 for the Golden State Warriors.
What is the spread and total for Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves?
Bet365 lists the Minnesota Timberwolves at +1.0 with the total at 227.0 for Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.
Which player props stand out for Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves?
The board's headline lines are Stephen Curry 49.5+ points at 13.00, Draymond Green 14.5+ assists at 29.00 and Rudy Gobert 19.5+ rebounds at 14.00. For the Minnesota Timberwolves the model projects LaMelo Ball for 22.1 points and Jaden McDaniels for 17.2 points. For the Golden State Warriors it projects Stephen Curry for 23.4 points and Brandin Podziemski for 16.2 points.
1.68
Warriors
Timberwolves
