Denver NuggetsNuggets
Wed, Oct 288:00 PMETNew Orleans
New Orleans PelicansPelicans
DEN1.55NOP2.82SpreadNOP +4.5Total239.5via Polymarket

Denver Nuggets vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction, Picks and Odds for October 28

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DEN

Statz pick

Denver Nuggets to win

We give the Denver Nuggets a 65% chance, against 35% for the New Orleans Pelicans. See the full projection →

65%
DEN to win
Polymarket1.55

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 65% to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday 28 October. The model line is Denver -4.8 against a market spread of -4.5, so the gap is thin. The injury that matters is Yves Missi, who is out for New Orleans and leaves the Pelicans short in the frontcourt.

The Denver Nuggets visit the New Orleans Pelicans on Wednesday 28 October, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Statz model makes Denver the favourite at 65% and projects a margin of 4.8 points. The market agrees on the side and has the Nuggets at -4.5. The two numbers sit close together.

How the teams arrive

New Orleans are 0-3 and have lost three in a row (L L L). They are scoring 124.7 and conceding 128.0 per game, so the defence is the problem, not the offence. All three losses were close. They lost 119-120 at Utah and 120-123 at home to IND. The Pelicans also lost 135-141 at Denver on 24 October, a game in which they scored 135 and still lost.

Denver are 1-2 (L W L) and average 113.0 points for and 121.7 against. The run is uneven. The Nuggets beat New Orleans 141-135 at home, then lost 114-134 to GSW at home. Before that they lost 84-96 at OKC, their lowest score of the season. One strong offensive night sits between two poor ones. Now they are on the road.

Team news and lineups

New Orleans are without Yves Missi, who is out with a left knee bone bruise. His return date is listed as 2 November. Reporting says he faces an extended absence with no official timetable. His minutes go to a teammate stepping into the frontcourt, and rebounding and rim protection are the areas most exposed against Denver.

Denver have three players out. Spencer Jones is out with a hamstring injury and is considered week-to-week. Julian Strawther is out with a left knee sprain and has a return date of 29 November. Alpha Diallo is out for personal reasons, with a return date of 30 October.

These are depth absences for Denver. They thin the bench and push more minutes onto the main rotation, but the core is not affected. The Pelicans' absence is closer to the middle of their lineup.

Expected starting fives

Projected minutes

Depth charts and the full rotations →

Players to watch

Zion Williamson

Zion Williamson is projected for 19.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.2 assists. He is New Orleans' top scorer in the model, and the Pelicans need him to carry the offence against a Denver side that conceded 135 here a few days ago.

Trey Murphy III

Trey Murphy III is projected for 19.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 3.8 threes. His shooting stretches the floor and gives the Pelicans a way to keep pace in a game with a high total.

Julian Reese is projected for 13.1 points and 11.2 rebounds. With Missi out, his rebounding is the number to watch, and he faces a front line led by the league's best passing centre.

Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic is projected for 25.6 points, 15.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists. That is a heavy line, and it explains most of the 65% win probability.

Jamal Murray

Jamal Murray is projected for 24.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 3.6 threes. He is the second scoring option, and his threes are the swing factor on a night the Nuggets lack bench depth.

DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan is projected for 19.2 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.7 assists. He gives Denver a third scorer who can create his own shot.

Same game parlays

Slips from the props and lines, priced by every book that carries each leg.

Build your own →
Safer4 legs

Short prices the player has cleared in at least four of their last five.

  • Player
    Nikola Jokic
    Under 10.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 80.3%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    Saddiq Bey
    Over 11.5 Points · 5/5 last 5 · 72.2%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    Christian Braun
    Under 1.5 Threes · 5/5 last 5 · 70.7%
    Caesars1.55
  • Player
    Jeremiah Fears
    Under 1.5 Threes · 4/5 last 5 · 70.7%
    Caesars1.43

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 7.75.

Market 10%Statz 29%+19.0%
Edge4 legs

The legs where our chance beats the market's by the most.

  • Player
    Derik Queen
    Under 21.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 2/5 last 5 · 99.9%
    PP2.00
  • Player
    Aaron Gordon
    Under 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast · 3/5 last 5 · 84.4%
    PP2.00
  • Player
    Nikola Jokic
    Under 10.5 Assists · 4/5 last 5 · 80.3%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    Trey Murphy III
    Over 2.5 Threes · 1/5 last 5 · 69.7%
    FanDuel2.28
PP16.47
Market 5.2%Statz 47.2%+42.0%
Scoring4 legs

Points, threes and the combination markets, over.

  • Player
    Saddiq Bey
    Over 11.5 Points · 5/5 last 5 · 72.2%
    Fanatics1.87
  • Player
    DeMar DeRozan
    Over 13.5 Points · 2/5 last 5 · 71.6%
    FanDuel1.77
  • Player
    Trey Murphy III
    Over 2.5 Threes · 1/5 last 5 · 69.7%
    FanDuel2.28
  • Player
    Christian Braun
    Over 17.5 Pts + Reb · 1/5 last 5 · 52.8%
    Midnite1.91

No single book carries every leg; as singles the legs multiply to 14.41.

Market 5.6%Statz 19%+13.4%
Our chance of a slip is its legs' chances multiplied, which treats them as independent; legs from one game lean on each other, so the true chance is a little higher. Every leg must land.

Statz Best Bets for this game

The props our model rates above their price, from the Best Bets board.

Every Best Bet →

Statz prediction

The model takes the Denver Nuggets. It gives them a 65% win probability and a line of -4.8, against a market spread of -4.5. The gap is 0.3 points, so the model leans to neither side of the number. The edge is on the side, not the price. On the total, the model projects 240.9 against a market line of 240.5. The gap is 0.4 points and the lean is neither, so there is no total play here.

Denver have the stronger core and New Orleans are short in the frontcourt. The Pelicans also lost to this team four days ago despite scoring 135. The case is about the side rather than the margin.

Statz pick: Denver Nuggets -4.5 at 1.89 (Ballybet).

For a same game parlay to look at, the Statz Edge slip combines Derik Queen Under 18.5 Pts + Reb, Aaron Gordon Under 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast, Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 Assists and Trey Murphy III Over 2.5 Threes. It is priced at 15.07 at Paddy Power. See the Same Game Parlays page for the full slip.

Lines move before tip, so check the latest prices first.

DEN @ NOP questions

Who does the model favour in Nuggets vs Pelicans?
The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets at 65% to win. It projects a margin of 4.8 points for Denver, which matches the market's view of the favourite. The New Orleans Pelicans are the underdog at 36% in the model.
What is the spread for Nuggets at Pelicans?
The market has the Denver Nuggets at -4.5 and the New Orleans Pelicans at +4.5. The Statz model line is Denver -4.8, a gap of 0.3 points, so the model leans to neither side of the spread.
What is the total for Nuggets vs Pelicans?
The market total is 240.5. The Statz model projects 240.9 points, a gap of 0.4 points. The model leans to neither the over nor the under, so it offers no edge on the total for this game.
Who is injured for the Pelicans and Nuggets?
New Orleans are without Yves Missi, who is out with a left knee bone bruise. Denver are without Spencer Jones (hamstring), Julian Strawther (left knee sprain) and Alpha Diallo (personal reasons). All four are listed as out.
What time is Nuggets at Pelicans?
The game is on Wednesday 28 October in New Orleans, with tip at 8:00 PM ET. The Denver Nuggets are the visitors and the New Orleans Pelicans are at home, having lost their first three games of the season.

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Quick answers3 questions

Who is favoured, Denver Nuggets or New Orleans Pelicans?

The Statz model favours the Denver Nuggets with a 65% win probability, leaving the New Orleans Pelicans at 35%. Bet365 agrees, pricing the Denver Nuggets as the favourite at -1.0 on the spread. The moneyline is +159 for the New Orleans Pelicans and -192 for the Denver Nuggets.

What is the spread and total for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans?

Bet365 lists the New Orleans Pelicans at +1.0 with the total at 240.5 for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans. Lines move with injury news and money, so the odds board on this page carries the latest price. Alternative spreads and totals, first-quarter and first-half lines sit in the same board where the book offers them.

Which player props stand out for Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans?

The board's headline lines are Nikola Jokic 49.5+ points at 41.00, Jamal Murray 8.5+ threes at 36.00 and DeAndre Jordan 19.5+ rebounds at 36.00. For the New Orleans Pelicans the model projects Zion Williamson for 19.9 points and Trey Murphy III for 19.2 points.