No, Toulouse have taken 21 points over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 7.27 fewer than the 28.27 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Toulouse create 1.37 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 27.41 in all, and have scored 25 goals from those chances, 2.41 fewer than that xG would expect.
Toulouse allow 1.36 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 27.13 in all, and have conceded 34 goals from those chances, 6.87 more than that xGA would expect.
J. Russell-Rowe has the most expected goals (xG) for Toulouse over their last 20 Ligue 1 games, 3.09 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Casper Tengstedt is next with 2.95 xG.
Toulouse have taken 7.3 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: -2.4 goals against their xG, and -6.9 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 27.41 | 25 | -2.41 | 27.13 | 34 | -6.87 | 28.27 | 21 | -7.27 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.83 | 15 | -0.83 | 13.84 | 15 | -1.16 | 15.38 | 14 | -1.38 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.94 | 9 | +0.06 | 9.45 | 9 | +0.45 | 6.96 | 6 | -0.96 |
| Home | 9 | 16.52 | 9 | -7.52 | 11.73 | 14 | -2.27 | 15.30 | 11 | -4.30 |
| Away | 11 | 10.89 | 16 | +5.11 | 15.40 | 20 | -4.60 | 12.97 | 10 | -2.97 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Ligue 1 | Monaco (A) | 2-2 | 1.41 | 1.28 | 1.47 | 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | Ligue 1 | Le Havre (H) | 3-2 | 2.28 | 2.63 | 1.22 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | Ligue 1 | Lorient (A) | 2-2 | 1.57 | 1.03 | 1.75 | 1 | W |
| 3 Sep | Ligue 1 | Lille (H) | 0-1 | 2.96 | 1.31 | 2.27 | 0 | W |
| 29 Aug | Ligue 1 | Brest (A) | 2-2 | 0.72 | 3.20 | 0.25 | 1 | L |
| 22 Aug | Ligue 1 | Lyon (H) | 0-2 | 2.00 | 1.15 | 1.93 | 0 | W |
| 17 May | Ligue 1 | Nantes (A) | 0-0 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1.22 | 1 | D |
| 10 May | Ligue 1 | Lyon (H) | 2-1 | 1.35 | 1.76 | 1.12 | 3 | L |
| 3 May | Ligue 1 | Strasbourg (A) | 1-2 | 1.29 | 0.45 | 2.02 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | Ligue 1 | Monaco (H) | 2-2 | 2.05 | 0.89 | 2.13 | 1 | W |
| 17 Apr | Ligue 1 | Lens (A) | 3-2 | 0.27 | 3.34 | 0.10 | 0 | L |
| 12 Apr | Ligue 1 | Lille (H) | 0-4 | 1.21 | 1.98 | 0.91 | 0 | L |
| 3 Apr | Ligue 1 | PSG (A) | 3-1 | 0.15 | 1.49 | 0.34 | 0 | L |
| 21 Mar | Ligue 1 | Lorient (H) | 1-0 | 1.05 | 0.72 | 1.61 | 3 | W |
| 15 Mar | Ligue 1 | Metz (A) | 3-4 | 1.68 | 2.00 | 1.20 | 3 | L |
| 7 Mar | Ligue 1 | Marseille (H) | 0-1 | 0.97 | 0.70 | 1.55 | 0 | W |
| 28 Feb | Ligue 1 | Rennes (A) | 1-0 | 0.65 | 0.80 | 1.18 | 0 | D |
| 21 Feb | Ligue 1 | Paris (H) | 1-1 | 2.65 | 0.59 | 2.56 | 1 | W |
| 15 Feb | Ligue 1 | Le Havre (A) | 2-1 | 2.29 | 0.55 | 2.47 | 0 | W |
| 8 Feb | Ligue 1 | Angers (A) | 1-0 | 0.66 | 1.12 | 0.97 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayann Methalie | defender | 11 | 714 | 0.31 | 2 | +1.69 | 0.04 |
| Casper Tengstedt | attacker | 4 | 225 | 2.95 | 4 | +1.05 | 1.18 |
| Emersonn | attacker | 13 | 621 | 2.19 | 3 | +0.81 | 0.32 |
| Seny Koumbassa | defender | 10 | 657 | 0.23 | 1 | +0.77 | 0.03 |
| Sion Oppong | attacker | 5 | 118 | 0.25 | 1 | +0.75 | 0.19 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen | defender | 15 | 1322 | 0.46 | 1 | +0.54 | 0.03 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | midfielder | 17 | 1474 | 0.48 | 1 | +0.52 | 0.03 |
| Thomas Jørgensen | midfielder | 6 | 528 | 1.62 | 2 | +0.38 | 0.28 |
| Warren Kamanzi | defender | 11 | 521 | 0.87 | 1 | +0.13 | 0.15 |
| Mario Sauer | midfielder | 11 | 141 | 0.97 | 1 | +0.03 | 0.62 |
| Aron Dønnum | midfielder | 12 | 913 | 1.04 | 1 | -0.04 | 0.10 |
| Julián Vignolo | attacker | 9 | 292 | 1.18 | 1 | -0.18 | 0.36 |
| Djibril Sidibé | defender | 12 | 797 | 1.24 | 1 | -0.24 | 0.14 |
| Christ Tapé | defender | 6 | 534 | 1.39 | 1 | -0.39 | 0.23 |
| Yann Gboho | attacker | 14 | 1155 | 2.50 | 2 | -0.50 | 0.20 |
| I. Azizi | attacker | 8 | 345 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.13 |
| J. Russell-Rowe | attacker | 19 | 857 | 3.09 | 2 | -1.09 | 0.32 |
| Pape Demba Diop | midfielder | 12 | 924 | 1.12 | 0 | -1.12 | 0.11 |
| Charlie Cresswell | defender | 9 | 733 | 1.31 | 0 | -1.31 | 0.16 |
| Santiago Hidalgo | attacker | 18 | 1008 | 2.70 | 1 | -1.70 | 0.24 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 7.2 | 10 | 8.8 | 5 | 7.3 | 14 | +6.7 |
| 2 | LOSC Lille | 6 | 7.2 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 6.8 | 13 | +6.2 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 11 | 12 | 11.1 | 10 | 8.4 | 13 | +4.6 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 6 | 7.4 | 11 | 11.6 | 12 | 5.5 | 7 | +1.5 |
| 5 | Nice | 6 | 5.9 | 5 | 8.2 | 7 | 6.8 | 8 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Lorient | 6 | 6.5 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7.2 | 8 | +0.8 |
| 7 | Olympique Lyonnais | 6 | 10.7 | 11 | 6.5 | 4 | 10.6 | 11 | +0.4 |
| 8 | Paris | 6 | 9.5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 11.1 | 11 | -0.1 |
| 9 | Angers SCO | 6 | 9.3 | 7 | 10.9 | 10 | 7.4 | 7 | -0.4 |
| 10 | Auxerre | 6 | 7.6 | 8 | 11.8 | 16 | 6.5 | 6 | -0.5 |
| 11 | Le Mans | 6 | 9.7 | 10 | 12.6 | 12 | 7.2 | 6 | -1.2 |
| 12 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 14.7 | 11 | 6.6 | 8 | 12.3 | 11 | -1.3 |
| 13 | Olympique Marseille | 6 | 9.3 | 9 | 11.6 | 8 | 7.7 | 6 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Lens | 6 | 11.9 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | 8.9 | 7 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 10.9 | 9 | 10.6 | 11 | 8.9 | 6 | -2.9 |
| 16 | Troyes | 6 | 8.4 | 4 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Brest | 6 | 13.2 | 12 | 7.1 | 9 | 11.2 | 8 | -3.2 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 9.9 | 4 | 9.5 | 8 | 8.6 | 2 | -6.6 |