No, Reading have taken 24 points over their last 20 League One games, 7.06 fewer than the 31.06 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.
Reading create 1.51 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League One games, 30.20 in all, and have scored 33 goals from those chances, 2.80 more than that xG would expect.
Reading allow 1.16 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League One games, 23.20 in all, and have conceded 25 goals from those chances, 1.80 more than that xGA would expect.
Jack Marriott has the most expected goals (xG) for Reading over their last 20 League One games, 4.00 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 8 goals; Kyreece Lisbie is next with 3.00 xG.
Reading have taken 7.1 points fewer than their chances warranted over 20 games: +2.8 goals against their xG, and -1.8 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 30.20 | 33 | +2.80 | 23.20 | 25 | -1.80 | 31.06 | 24 | -7.06 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 19.17 | 22 | +2.83 | 10.88 | 12 | -1.12 | 18.57 | 15 | -3.57 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.49 | 11 | +1.51 | 5.86 | 6 | -0.14 | 9.06 | 8 | -1.06 |
| Home | 10 | 16.96 | 21 | +4.04 | 10.20 | 14 | -3.80 | 17.31 | 14 | -3.31 |
| Away | 10 | 13.24 | 12 | -1.24 | 13.00 | 11 | +2.00 | 13.75 | 10 | -3.75 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | MK Dons (A) | 1-5 | 2.77 | 0.93 | 2.41 | 3 | W |
| 3 Oct | League One | Bradford (H) | 1-1 | 0.77 | 1.02 | 1.13 | 1 | L |
| 26 Sep | League One | Wycombe (A) | 2-2 | 1.83 | 2.58 | 1.00 | 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | League One | Notts County (H) | 2-0 | 2.44 | 0.52 | 2.54 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | League One | Cambridge (A) | 2-1 | 1.68 | 0.81 | 1.98 | 0 | W |
| 5 Sep | League One | Blackpool (H) | 3-1 | 2.94 | 0.61 | 2.62 | 3 | W |
| 2 Sep | League One | Mansfield (H) | 5-0 | 2.88 | 1.13 | 2.34 | 3 | W |
| 22 Aug | League One | Wimbledon (A) | 0-0 | 1.34 | 0.47 | 2.05 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | League One | Luton (H) | 3-4 | 1.71 | 1.74 | 1.37 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | League One | Blackpool (H) | 0-1 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 1.13 | 0 | L |
| 25 Apr | League One | Rotherham (A) | 1-1 | 0.67 | 0.88 | 1.13 | 1 | L |
| 18 Apr | League One | Cardiff (H) | 1-3 | 1.97 | 0.95 | 2.05 | 0 | W |
| 11 Apr | League One | Doncaster (A) | 1-0 | 1.48 | 1.60 | 1.30 | 0 | L |
| 6 Apr | League One | Lincoln (H) | 1-2 | 0.28 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 0 | D |
| 3 Apr | League One | Huddersfield (A) | 1-1 | 0.99 | 2.21 | 0.67 | 1 | L |
| 28 Mar | League One | Wigan (H) | 3-0 | 1.98 | 0.43 | 2.42 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | League One | Stevenage (A) | 1-0 | 0.21 | 1.29 | 0.46 | 0 | L |
| 17 Mar | League One | Burton (A) | 1-2 | 1.17 | 1.34 | 1.24 | 3 | L |
| 14 Mar | League One | Plymouth (H) | 2-2 | 1.18 | 2.00 | 0.88 | 1 | L |
| 10 Mar | League One | Mansfield (A) | 1-0 | 1.10 | 0.89 | 1.51 | 0 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Marriott | attacker | 8 | 532 | 4.00 | 8 | +4.00 | 0.68 |
| Jacob Brown | attacker | 9 | 191 | 2.14 | 4 | +1.86 | 1.01 |
| U. Godwin-Malife | defender | 9 | 810 | 0.22 | 1 | +0.78 | 0.02 |
| Kelvin Ehibhatiomhan | attacker | 11 | 882 | 2.31 | 3 | +0.69 | 0.24 |
| George Earthy | midfielder | 5 | 343 | 1.47 | 2 | +0.53 | 0.39 |
| Daniel Kyerewaa | midfielder | 15 | 819 | 1.70 | 2 | +0.30 | 0.19 |
| Kamari Doyle | midfielder | 7 | 465 | 0.82 | 1 | +0.18 | 0.16 |
| Kyreece Lisbie | attacker | 9 | 733 | 3.00 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Randell Williams | midfielder | 13 | 446 | 1.01 | 1 | -0.01 | 0.20 |
| Lewis Wing | midfielder | 20 | 1800 | 2.09 | 2 | -0.09 | 0.10 |
| Paudie O'Connor | defender | 20 | 1792 | 2.46 | 2 | -0.46 | 0.12 |
| Charlie Savage | midfielder | 14 | 737 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.06 |
| Josh Stokes | midfielder | 5 | 394 | 0.50 | 0 | -0.50 | 0.11 |
| Will Keane | attacker | 8 | 239 | 0.63 | 0 | -0.63 | 0.24 |
| Benn Ward | defender | 11 | 927 | 2.12 | 1 | -1.12 | 0.21 |
| Paddy Lane | attacker | 19 | 1146 | 2.20 | 1 | -1.20 | 0.17 |
| Jeriel Dorsett | defender | 11 | 939 | 1.30 | 0 | -1.30 | 0.12 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |