No, Doncaster have taken 30 points over their last 20 League One games, within 1.28 of the 31.28 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Doncaster create 1.54 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 League One games, 30.78 in all, and have scored 22 goals from those chances, 8.78 fewer than that xG would expect.
Doncaster allow 1.23 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 League One games, 24.59 in all, and have conceded 21 goals from those chances, 3.59 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Owen Bailey has the most expected goals (xG) for Doncaster over their last 20 League One games, 5.41 xG in 20 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Elliot Lee is next with 3.01 xG.
Doncaster's results and their chances agree, within 1.3 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 30.78 | 22 | -8.78 | 24.59 | 21 | +3.59 | 31.28 | 30 | -1.28 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 15.92 | 13 | -2.92 | 11.96 | 11 | +0.96 | 15.96 | 13 | -2.96 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 7.98 | 6 | -1.98 | 7.34 | 5 | +2.34 | 7.11 | 7 | -0.11 |
| Home | 11 | 15.94 | 10 | -5.94 | 13.81 | 11 | +2.81 | 16.80 | 16 | -0.80 |
| Away | 9 | 14.84 | 12 | -2.84 | 10.78 | 10 | +0.78 | 14.48 | 14 | -0.48 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | League One | Burton (H) | 1-0 | 0.70 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | League One | Peterborough (A) | 0-2 | 1.15 | 1.38 | 1.20 | 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | League One | Wimbledon (A) | 1-0 | 2.46 | 1.08 | 2.20 | 0 | W |
| 5 Sep | League One | Plymouth (H) | 2-3 | 2.52 | 2.53 | 1.40 | 0 | L |
| 1 Sep | League One | Notts County (H) | 1-1 | 1.15 | 1.24 | 1.30 | 1 | L |
| 29 Aug | League One | Stevenage (A) | 2-2 | 0.59 | 0.59 | 1.29 | 1 | D |
| 22 Aug | League One | Barnsley (H) | 0-0 | 1.79 | 0.74 | 2.10 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | League One | Mansfield (A) | 2-1 | 0.90 | 1.12 | 1.17 | 0 | L |
| 2 May | League One | Peterborough (A) | 1-3 | 2.65 | 1.44 | 2.07 | 3 | W |
| 25 Apr | League One | Stevenage (H) | 1-1 | 2.01 | 0.73 | 2.22 | 1 | W |
| 21 Apr | League One | Lincoln (H) | 0-2 | 0.45 | 2.83 | 0.21 | 0 | L |
| 18 Apr | League One | Northampton (A) | 1-3 | 2.52 | 1.12 | 2.20 | 3 | W |
| 11 Apr | League One | Reading (H) | 1-0 | 1.60 | 1.48 | 1.46 | 3 | W |
| 6 Apr | League One | Exeter City (A) | 3-0 | 2.45 | 1.16 | 2.15 | 0 | W |
| 3 Apr | League One | Mansfield (H) | 0-2 | 0.60 | 0.51 | 1.37 | 0 | D |
| 24 Mar | League One | Port Vale (H) | 1-0 | 1.03 | 0.39 | 1.89 | 3 | W |
| 21 Mar | League One | Barnsley (A) | 0-1 | 1.30 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 3 | W |
| 17 Mar | League One | Bolton (A) | 0-0 | 0.82 | 1.65 | 0.80 | 1 | L |
| 14 Mar | League One | Blackpool (H) | 2-1 | 1.46 | 1.26 | 1.51 | 3 | W |
| 10 Mar | League One | Luton (H) | 1-1 | 2.63 | 0.99 | 2.33 | 1 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick McCarthy | attacker | 4 | 151 | 2.08 | 4 | +1.92 | 1.24 |
| Hakeeb Adelakun | attacker | 15 | 823 | 0.83 | 2 | +1.17 | 0.09 |
| Isaac Hutchinson | midfielder | 8 | 348 | 1.24 | 2 | +0.76 | 0.32 |
| Leon Ayinde | attacker | 7 | 303 | 0.42 | 1 | +0.58 | 0.13 |
| George Broadbent | midfielder | 16 | 709 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.08 |
| Sean Grehan | defender | 12 | 948 | 0.73 | 1 | +0.27 | 0.07 |
| Jack Senior | defender | 19 | 1710 | 1.93 | 2 | +0.07 | 0.10 |
| G. Middleton | attacker | 8 | 442 | 0.89 | 0 | -0.89 | 0.18 |
| Alfie May | attacker | 8 | 690 | 2.92 | 2 | -0.92 | 0.38 |
| Elliot Lee | midfielder | 12 | 739 | 3.01 | 2 | -1.01 | 0.37 |
| Matthew Pearson | defender | 12 | 943 | 1.02 | 0 | -1.02 | 0.10 |
| Harry Clifton | midfielder | 14 | 531 | 1.57 | 0 | -1.57 | 0.27 |
| B. Hanlan | attacker | 19 | 1268 | 2.69 | 1 | -1.69 | 0.19 |
| Luke Molyneux | attacker | 7 | 618 | 2.07 | 0 | -2.07 | 0.30 |
| Owen Bailey | midfielder | 20 | 1780 | 5.41 | 3 | -2.41 | 0.27 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oxford United | 7 | 8.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 8.8 | 14 | +5.2 |
| 2 | Bradford City | 9 | 9.8 | 8 | 8.3 | 5 | 13 | 17 | +4 |
| 3 | Cambridge United | 9 | 12.7 | 14 | 13.1 | 11 | 12.4 | 16 | +3.6 |
| 4 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 7.7 | 13 | 15.7 | 11 | 7.4 | 11 | +3.6 |
| 5 | Plymouth Argyle | 10 | 16.9 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 15.5 | 19 | +3.5 |
| 6 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 9.6 | 7 | 14.1 | 10 | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 10 | 8.3 | 14 | 15.4 | 16 | 9.9 | 12 | +2.1 |
| 8 | Bromley | 8 | 7.7 | 9 | 16.9 | 20 | 6.1 | 8 | +1.9 |
| 9 | Mansfield Town | 8 | 10.4 | 12 | 12.6 | 14 | 9.9 | 11 | +1.1 |
| 10 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 17.1 | 15 | 10.1 | 8 | 14.5 | 15 | +0.5 |
| 11 | Stockport County | 9 | 17.3 | 20 | 11.5 | 11 | 15.8 | 16 | +0.2 |
| 12 | Stevenage | 8 | 9.8 | 12 | 7.7 | 8 | 12.1 | 12 | -0.1 |
| 13 | Huddersfield Town | 9 | 18.9 | 16 | 9.3 | 9 | 17.7 | 16 | -1.7 |
| 14 | Wycombe Wanderers | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 15.5 | 20 | 11.9 | 10 | -1.9 |
| 15 | Blackpool | 8 | 15.5 | 13 | 17.2 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Reading | 9 | 18.4 | 22 | 9.8 | 11 | 17.4 | 15 | -2.4 |
| 17 | Doncaster Rovers | 8 | 11.3 | 9 | 9.8 | 9 | 11.7 | 9 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Luton Town | 8 | 13.9 | 16 | 9.6 | 15 | 13.9 | 11 | -2.9 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 12 | 8 | 12.7 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| 20 | Peterborough United | 9 | 13.5 | 7 | 17.1 | 14 | 11.1 | 8 | -3.1 |
| 21 | Notts County | 8 | 9.4 | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 10.1 | 7 | -3.1 |
| 22 | Leicester City | 8 | 13.3 | 10 | 11.6 | 14 | 12.2 | 9 | -3.2 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 12.3 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 10.7 | 6 | -4.7 |
| 24 | Wigan Athletic | 8 | 11.3 | 5 | 13.1 | 13 | 9.8 | 4 | -5.8 |