No, Alaves have taken 27 points over their last 20 La Liga games, within 0.91 of the 27.91 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Alaves create 1.30 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 26.07 in all, and have scored 33 goals from those chances, 6.93 more than that xG would expect.
Alaves allow 1.29 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 La Liga games, 25.84 in all, and have conceded 30 goals from those chances, 4.16 more than that xGA would expect.
Toni Martínez has the most expected goals (xG) for Alaves over their last 20 La Liga games, 7.39 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 9 goals; Lucas Boyé is next with 5.46 xG.
Alaves's results and their chances agree, within 0.9 points of xPts over 20 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 26.07 | 33 | +6.93 | 25.84 | 30 | -4.16 | 27.91 | 27 | -0.91 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 12.52 | 14 | +1.48 | 12.62 | 10 | +2.62 | 13.99 | 14 | +0.01 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.09 | 7 | +1.91 | 7.75 | 7 | +0.75 | 5.19 | 4 | -1.19 |
| Home | 11 | 13.07 | 19 | +5.93 | 12.14 | 15 | -2.86 | 15.61 | 17 | +1.39 |
| Away | 9 | 13.00 | 14 | +1.00 | 13.70 | 15 | -1.30 | 12.30 | 10 | -2.30 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | La Liga | Atlético (H) | 1-2 | 1.16 | 2.05 | 0.84 | 0 | L |
| 19 Sep | La Liga | Athletic Club (A) | 0-0 | 0.06 | 1.92 | 0.18 | 1 | L |
| 15 Sep | La Liga | Valencia (H) | 0-1 | 0.99 | 0.71 | 1.57 | 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | La Liga | Racing (A) | 2-1 | 1.92 | 1.44 | 1.68 | 0 | W |
| 6 Sep | La Liga | Osasuna (H) | 5-2 | 0.96 | 1.63 | 0.92 | 3 | L |
| 28 Aug | La Liga | Villarreal (H) | 1-0 | 0.70 | 1.98 | 0.57 | 3 | L |
| 20 Aug | La Liga | Rayo (A) | 1-1 | 1.60 | 0.57 | 2.12 | 1 | W |
| 15 Aug | La Liga | Getafe (H) | 3-0 | 1.74 | 0.34 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| 23 May | La Liga | Rayo (H) | 1-2 | 2.03 | 1.35 | 1.81 | 0 | W |
| 17 May | La Liga | Oviedo (A) | 0-1 | 1.36 | 0.63 | 1.92 | 3 | W |
| 13 May | La Liga | Barcelona (H) | 1-0 | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.57 | 3 | W |
| 9 May | La Liga | Elche (A) | 1-1 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 1.44 | 1 | W |
| 2 May | La Liga | Athletic Club (H) | 2-4 | 0.50 | 0.84 | 1.00 | 0 | L |
| 25 Apr | La Liga | Mallorca (H) | 2-1 | 1.42 | 0.32 | 2.23 | 3 | W |
| 21 Apr | La Liga | Real Madrid (A) | 2-1 | 1.49 | 2.00 | 1.08 | 0 | L |
| 11 Apr | La Liga | Sociedad (A) | 3-3 | 1.48 | 1.32 | 1.48 | 1 | W |
| 5 Apr | La Liga | Osasuna (H) | 2-2 | 2.26 | 1.38 | 1.92 | 1 | W |
| 22 Mar | La Liga | Celta (A) | 3-4 | 1.78 | 1.38 | 1.64 | 3 | W |
| 13 Mar | La Liga | Villarreal (H) | 1-1 | 0.31 | 0.83 | 0.80 | 1 | L |
| 8 Mar | La Liga | Valencia (A) | 3-2 | 1.52 | 2.74 | 0.76 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Boyé | attacker | 16 | 975 | 5.46 | 9 | +3.54 | 0.50 |
| Toni Martínez | attacker | 19 | 1447 | 7.39 | 9 | +1.61 | 0.46 |
| Mariano Díaz | attacker | 9 | 355 | 1.53 | 3 | +1.47 | 0.39 |
| Mikel Rodriguez | midfielder | 3 | 149 | 0.00 | 1 | +1.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | defender | 20 | 1756 | 1.16 | 2 | +0.84 | 0.06 |
| Ville Koski | defender | 13 | 920 | 0.40 | 1 | +0.60 | 0.04 |
| Abde Rebbach | attacker | 18 | 1336 | 0.77 | 1 | +0.23 | 0.05 |
| Antonio Blanco | midfielder | 20 | 1656 | 0.79 | 1 | +0.21 | 0.04 |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | attacker | 10 | 580 | 2.11 | 2 | -0.11 | 0.33 |
| Pablo Ibáñez | midfielder | 19 | 1305 | 1.28 | 1 | -0.28 | 0.09 |
| Denis Suárez | midfielder | 17 | 769 | 0.64 | 0 | -0.64 | 0.08 |
| Jon Guridi | midfielder | 12 | 677 | 0.79 | 0 | -0.79 | 0.11 |
| Ángel Pérez | attacker | 20 | 1629 | 1.97 | 1 | -0.97 | 0.11 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis | 8 | 14 | 14 | 12.9 | 9 | 11.9 | 19 | +7.1 |
| 2 | Real Sociedad | 8 | 9.4 | 12 | 14.4 | 15 | 8.3 | 13 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Atlético Madrid | 8 | 14.1 | 18 | 8.5 | 8 | 14.4 | 19 | +4.6 |
| 4 | FC Barcelona | 8 | 27.9 | 34 | 7.1 | 7 | 19.7 | 24 | +4.3 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 8 | 10.3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 10.6 | 14 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Real Madrid | 8 | 18 | 19 | 9.2 | 8 | 16 | 18 | +2 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés | 8 | 9.1 | 12 | 10.6 | 8 | 10.3 | 11 | +0.7 |
| 8 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 9.2 | 11 | 13.3 | 16 | 7.6 | 8 | +0.4 |
| 9 | Getafe | 8 | 6.8 | 4 | 11.8 | 10 | 7.9 | 8 | +0.1 |
| 10 | Racing Santander | 8 | 10.6 | 13 | 17 | 23 | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| 11 | Levante | 7 | 9.1 | 11 | 14.5 | 15 | 6.8 | 6 | -0.8 |
| 12 | Deportivo La Coruña | 8 | 10.2 | 12 | 9.6 | 11 | 10.9 | 10 | -0.9 |
| 13 | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 7.3 | 8 | 9.6 | 6 | 9.4 | 8 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Osasuna | 8 | 9.8 | 8 | 12.2 | 18 | 10 | 8 | -2 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 6 | 9.4 | 7 | 7.8 | 6 | 10.1 | 8 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Málaga | 8 | 7 | 4 | 14.2 | 13 | 7 | 4 | -3 |
| 17 | Valencia | 8 | 7.9 | 6 | 12.3 | 15 | 8.8 | 5 | -3.8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 10.6 | 11 | 12.2 | 17 | 10.6 | 6 | -4.6 |
| 19 | Espanyol | 8 | 11.4 | 11 | 9.3 | 11 | 12.7 | 8 | -4.7 |
| 20 | Villarreal | 8 | 17.1 | 13 | 10.5 | 13 | 14.4 | 8 | -6.4 |