Ceará xG 2025

Ceará xG Questions

Are Ceará overperforming their xG this season?

No, Ceará have taken 43 points over 38 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2025, 6.74 fewer than the 49.74 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their performances deserve better than their results.

What is Ceará's xG per game this season?

Ceará create 1.01 expected goals (xG) per game over 38 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2025, 38.28 in all, and have scored 34 goals from those chances, 4.28 fewer than that xG would expect.

What is Ceará's xGA per game this season?

Ceará allow 1.08 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 38 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2025, 41.01 in all, and have conceded 40 goals from those chances, 1.01 fewer than that xGA would expect.

Who has the most xG for Ceará this season?

Pedro Raul has the most expected goals (xG) for Ceará over 38 Campeonato Brasileiro games in 2025, 12.82 xG in 34 appearances, and has scored 12 goals; Antonio Galeano is next with 4.59 xG.

Ceará expected goals 2025: 2025

Games: 38
Expected goals (xG): 38.28
Goals scored: 34
Goals minus xG: -4.28
Expected goals against (xGA): 41.01
Goals conceded: 40
xGA minus goals conceded: +1.01
Expected points (xPts): 49.74
Points: 43
Points minus xPts: -6.74
Verdict: A bit unlucky

Are Ceará overperforming their expected goals?

Ceará have taken 6.7 points fewer than their chances warranted over 38 games: -4.3 goals against their xG, and +1.0 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. The performances are better than the results, which is the side of this table where prices tend to be generous.

Ceará results against expected goals by form window and venue

Window	Games	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xGA	Conceded	xGA minus conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
25/	38	38.28	34	-4.28	41.01	40	+1.01	49.74	43	-6.74
Last 10	10	8.93	7	-1.93	8.64	13	-4.36	13.47	8	-5.47
Last 5	5	4.76	3	-1.76	5.48	10	-4.52	6.08	1	-5.08
Home	19	20.75	20	-0.75	15.67	18	-2.33	29.02	26	-3.02
Away	19	17.53	14	-3.53	25.34	22	+3.34	20.72	17	-3.72

Ceará expected goals match by match, 2025

Date	Competition	Opponent	Score	xG	xGA	xPts	Points	Deserved result
7 Dec	Campeonato Brasileiro	Palmeiras (H)	1-3	2.13	1.54	1.74	0	W
4 Dec	Campeonato Brasileiro	Flamengo (A)	1-0	0.02	1.59	0.22	0	L
30 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Cruzeiro (H)	1-1	0.83	0.90	1.27	1	L
24 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Mirassol (A)	3-0	1.34	0.68	1.87	0	W
21 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Internacional (H)	1-2	0.44	0.77	0.98	0	D
9 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Corinthians (A)	0-1	0.50	1.14	0.81	3	L
6 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Fortaleza (H)	1-1	0.75	0.52	1.52	1	D
2 Nov	Campeonato Brasileiro	Fluminense (H)	2-0	1.00	0.23	2.02	3	W
29 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Fluminense (A)	1-0	0.21	1.06	0.57	0	L
25 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Atlético-MG (A)	1-0	1.71	0.21	2.47	0	W
19 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Botafogo (H)	0-2	1.19	1.41	1.22	0	L
15 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Sport Recife (A)	1-1	1.12	1.82	0.93	1	L
5 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Santos (H)	3-0	1.94	1.48	1.67	3	W
2 Oct	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vitória (A)	1-0	0.61	1.73	0.61	0	L
29 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	São Paulo (A)	0-1	0.58	1.01	0.97	3	L
20 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bahia (H)	1-1	1.80	1.33	1.68	1	W
14 Sep	Campeonato Brasileiro	Vasco (A)	2-2	1.78	1.11	1.82	1	W
30 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Juventude (H)	0-1	0.74	0.55	1.48	0	D
24 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Grêmio (A)	0-0	1.22	1.83	0.99	1	L
16 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Bragantino (H)	1-0	0.94	0.26	1.94	3	W
10 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Palmeiras (A)	2-1	0.33	1.47	0.50	0	L
3 Aug	Campeonato Brasileiro	Flamengo (H)	1-1	0.60	1.03	0.96	1	L
27 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Cruzeiro (A)	1-2	0.73	1.02	1.09	3	L
23 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Mirassol (H)	0-2	1.09	0.45	1.87	0	W
20 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Internacional (A)	1-0	1.27	1.47	1.24	0	L
16 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Corinthians (H)	0-1	0.88	0.69	1.48	0	W
13 Jul	Campeonato Brasileiro	Fortaleza (A)	0-1	1.64	0.71	2.04	3	W
4 Jun	Campeonato Brasileiro	Botafogo (A)	3-2	0.73	2.82	0.34	0	L
1 Jun	Campeonato Brasileiro	Atlético-MG (H)	0-1	0.84	0.65	1.48	0	W
17 May	Campeonato Brasileiro	Sport Recife (H)	2-0	0.39	0.60	1.05	3	D

Ceará players: goals against expected goals, 2025

Player	Position	Apps	Minutes	xG	Goals	Goals minus xG	xG per 90
Antonio Galeano	attacker	38	3153	4.59	7	+2.41	0.13
Marllon	defender	25	2081	0.56	2	+1.44	0.02
Pedro Henrique	attacker	28	1419	2.78	4	+1.22	0.18
Matheus Araújo	midfielder	11	272	0.36	1	+0.64	0.12
Fernando Sobral	midfielder	30	1505	0.45	1	+0.55	0.03
Zanocelo	midfielder	15	1089	0.69	1	+0.31	0.06
Aylon	attacker	23	787	1.84	2	+0.16	0.21
Lourenço	midfielder	33	1382	2.01	2	-0.01	0.13
Lucas Mugni	midfielder	33	1725	2.43	2	-0.43	0.13
Paulo Baya	attacker	15	429	0.66	0	-0.66	0.14
Lelê	attacker	7	103	0.68	0	-0.68	0.59
Pedro Raul	attacker	34	2909	12.82	12	-0.82	0.40
Marcos Victor	defender	15	1344	0.87	0	-0.87	0.06
Willian Machado	defender	36	3220	1.06	0	-1.06	0.03
Vina	midfielder	16	561	1.89	0	-1.89	0.30
Fernandinho	attacker	22	1003	2.01	0	-2.01	0.18

Campeonato Brasileiro 2025: every team's points against expected points

#	Team	MP	xG	Goals	xGA	Conceded	xPts	Points	Points minus xPts
1	Palmeiras	38	57.1	66	38.6	33	63.9	76	+12.1
2	Cruzeiro	38	48.2	55	39.2	31	58.1	70	+11.9
3	Mirassol	38	60.2	63	50.6	39	58.4	67	+8.6
4	Flamengo	38	64.2	78	33.8	27	71.2	79	+7.8
5	Fluminense	38	43.6	50	34.5	39	57	64	+7
6	Botafogo	38	53.2	58	41.9	38	58.3	63	+4.7
7	Bahia	38	54.9	50	49.4	46	55.4	60	+4.6
8	Grêmio	38	47.3	47	58.9	50	46.7	49	+2.3
9	São Paulo	38	45.5	43	48.9	47	51	51	-0
10	Vitória	38	41.1	35	52.8	52	45.2	45	-0.2
11	Bragantino	38	46.6	45	52.1	57	48.7	48	-0.7
12	Juventude	38	34.8	35	62	69	36	35	-1
13	Vasco da Gama	38	46.8	55	56.3	60	46.8	45	-1.8
14	Fortaleza	38	47	43	57.2	58	45.3	43	-2.3
15	Corinthians	38	47	42	47.2	47	51	47	-4
16	Atlético Mineiro	38	46.6	43	43.4	44	53.3	48	-5.3
17	Santos	38	50.2	45	49.4	50	53.7	47	-6.7
18	Ceará	38	38.3	34	41	40	49.7	43	-6.7
19	Internacional	38	54.7	44	44.9	57	58.2	44	-14.2
20	Sport Recife	38	39.1	28	64.2	75	38	17	-21