No, Bristol City have taken 14 points over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, within 0.73 of the 14.73 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results match their performances.
Bristol City create 1.39 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 13.87 in all, and have scored 12 goals from those chances, 1.87 fewer than that xG would expect.
Bristol City allow 1.41 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 14.09 in all, and have conceded 14 goals from those chances, 0.09 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Lorent Tolaj has the most expected goals (xG) for Bristol City over 10 Championship games in 2026/2027, 2.86 xG in 8 appearances, and has scored 2 goals; Dominic Ballard is next with 2.83 xG.
Bristol City's results and their chances agree, within 0.7 points of xPts over 10 games. There is no regression case either way. What the table says is roughly what they have earned.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 13.87 | 12 | -1.87 | 14.09 | 14 | +0.09 | 14.73 | 14 | -0.73 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 8.59 | 3 | -5.59 | 5.33 | 7 | -1.67 | 9.33 | 4 | -5.33 |
| Home | 5 | 6.05 | 3 | -3.05 | 6.33 | 5 | +1.33 | 7.60 | 6 | -1.60 |
| Away | 5 | 7.82 | 9 | +1.18 | 7.76 | 9 | -1.24 | 7.13 | 8 | +0.87 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Oct | Championship | Blackburn (H) | 0-1 | 1.72 | 0.23 | 2.46 | 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | Championship | Charlton (A) | 1-1 | 1.84 | 2.21 | 1.19 | 1 | L |
| 18 Sep | Championship | Watford (H) | 1-0 | 1.57 | 0.56 | 2.12 | 3 | W |
| 15 Sep | Championship | Lincoln (H) | 0-1 | 1.49 | 0.60 | 2.02 | 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | Championship | S'oton (A) | 4-1 | 1.97 | 1.73 | 1.54 | 0 | W |
| 5 Sep | Championship | Burnley (A) | 1-2 | 1.17 | 0.31 | 2.07 | 3 | W |
| 1 Sep | Championship | Preston (A) | 1-3 | 1.18 | 1.85 | 0.95 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | Championship | Portsmouth (H) | 2-1 | 0.83 | 1.53 | 0.87 | 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | Championship | Birmingham (A) | 2-2 | 1.66 | 1.66 | 1.38 | 1 | L |
| 15 Aug | Championship | Millwall (H) | 0-2 | 0.44 | 3.41 | 0.13 | 0 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Twine | midfielder | 8 | 612 | 2.41 | 3 | +0.59 | 0.35 |
| Rob Dickie | defender | 7 | 616 | 0.54 | 1 | +0.46 | 0.08 |
| Jason Knight | midfielder | 10 | 877 | 0.56 | 1 | +0.44 | 0.06 |
| Lisav Naif Eissat | defender | 9 | 688 | 0.65 | 1 | +0.35 | 0.09 |
| Dominic Ballard | attacker | 10 | 487 | 2.83 | 3 | +0.17 | 0.52 |
| Yu Hirakawa | attacker | 10 | 618 | 1.10 | 1 | -0.10 | 0.16 |
| Sam Greenwood | midfielder | 10 | 379 | 0.52 | 0 | -0.52 | 0.12 |
| Gibson Yah | midfielder | 7 | 305 | 0.62 | 0 | -0.62 | 0.18 |
| Joe Williams | midfielder | 7 | 481 | 0.69 | 0 | -0.69 | 0.13 |
| Lorent Tolaj | attacker | 8 | 553 | 2.86 | 2 | -0.86 | 0.47 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea City | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12.3 | 7 | 15.7 | 23 | +7.3 |
| 2 | Stoke City | 10 | 9.8 | 17 | 16.8 | 16 | 10.2 | 16 | +5.8 |
| 3 | Blackburn Rovers | 10 | 9.7 | 15 | 15.8 | 13 | 9.7 | 15 | +5.3 |
| 4 | Southampton | 10 | 17.8 | 21 | 15 | 10 | 15.6 | 20 | +4.4 |
| 5 | West Bromwich Albion | 10 | 12.3 | 12 | 14.5 | 10 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 11.1 | 10 | 16.1 | 13 | 11 | 14 | +3 |
| 7 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 18.5 | 20 | 11.1 | 14 | 18.3 | 21 | +2.7 |
| 8 | Sheffield United | 10 | 10.9 | 14 | 17.3 | 14 | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| 9 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 14.5 | 15 | 18.3 | 18 | 11.5 | 13 | +1.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park Rangers | 10 | 17.8 | 15 | 12.9 | 9 | 16.6 | 17 | +0.4 |
| 11 | Birmingham City | 10 | 18.1 | 17 | 12.6 | 11 | 17.2 | 17 | -0.2 |
| 12 | West Ham United | 10 | 24.6 | 29 | 12.9 | 12 | 19.3 | 19 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Bristol City | 10 | 13.9 | 12 | 14.1 | 14 | 14.7 | 14 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Watford | 10 | 11.2 | 8 | 19.3 | 19 | 9 | 8 | -1 |
| 15 | Millwall | 10 | 19.3 | 16 | 14.4 | 16 | 16.2 | 14 | -2.2 |
| 16 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 9 | 15.7 | 16 | 9.7 | 14 | 16.3 | 14 | -2.3 |
| 17 | Portsmouth | 9 | 14.2 | 12 | 12.3 | 13 | 13.7 | 11 | -2.7 |
| 18 | Wrexham | 10 | 12.2 | 11 | 11.9 | 15 | 14.2 | 11 | -3.2 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 10 | 15 | 17 | 17.7 | 20 | 12.5 | 9 | -3.5 |
| 20 | Lincoln City | 10 | 14.6 | 7 | 14.9 | 17 | 14.6 | 11 | -3.6 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 13.4 | 15 | 16.3 | 19 | 11.8 | 8 | -3.8 |
| 22 | Derby County | 10 | 11.1 | 9 | 19.1 | 19 | 10.1 | 6 | -4.1 |
| 23 | Cardiff City | 10 | 21.3 | 16 | 14.2 | 15 | 17.6 | 10 | -7.6 |
| 24 | Preston North End | 10 | 12 | 8 | 15.3 | 20 | 12.1 | 4 | -8.1 |