Yes, Al Hilal have taken 27 points over 10 Saudi Pro League games in 2026/2027, 3.23 more than the 23.77 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Al Hilal create 3.12 expected goals (xG) per game over 10 Saudi Pro League games in 2026/2027, 31.19 in all, and have scored 30 goals from those chances, 1.19 fewer than that xG would expect.
Al Hilal allow 1.02 expected goals against (xGA) per game over 10 Saudi Pro League games in 2026/2027, 10.22 in all, and have conceded 9 goals from those chances, 1.22 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Crysencio Summerville has the most expected goals (xG) for Al Hilal over 10 Saudi Pro League games in 2026/2027, 4.57 xG in 10 appearances, and has scored 3 goals; Gabriel Martinelli is next with 4.17 xG.
Al Hilal have taken 3.2 points more than their chances warranted over 10 games: -1.2 goals against their xG, and +1.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/27 | 10 | 31.19 | 30 | -1.19 | 10.22 | 9 | +1.22 | 23.77 | 27 | +3.23 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 14.67 | 13 | -1.67 | 4.87 | 6 | -1.13 | 11.80 | 12 | +0.20 |
| Home | 5 | 13.61 | 11 | -2.61 | 5.35 | 6 | -0.65 | 11.14 | 12 | +0.86 |
| Away | 5 | 17.58 | 19 | +1.42 | 4.87 | 3 | +1.87 | 12.63 | 15 | +2.37 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Oct | Saudi Pro League | Al-Qadsiah (A) | 2-3 | 2.77 | 0.79 | 2.49 | 3 | W |
| 19 Oct | Saudi Pro League | Al Hazm (H) | 1-0 | 2.87 | 0.18 | 2.81 | 3 | W |
| 10 Oct | Saudi Pro League | Al Ittihad (H) | 3-2 | 2.41 | 1.17 | 2.12 | 3 | W |
| 12 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Taawoun (A) | 0-6 | 4.60 | 1.41 | 2.55 | 3 | W |
| 7 Sep | Saudi Pro League | NEOM SC (H) | 0-2 | 2.02 | 1.32 | 1.83 | 0 | W |
| 4 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Shabab (A) | 0-2 | 3.85 | 0.88 | 2.67 | 3 | W |
| 1 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Ahli (H) | 3-0 | 2.06 | 1.35 | 1.83 | 3 | W |
| 28 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al Khaleej (A) | 1-5 | 2.57 | 1.23 | 2.15 | 3 | W |
| 20 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al-Fayha (A) | 0-3 | 3.79 | 0.56 | 2.77 | 3 | W |
| 14 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al Faisaly (H) | 4-2 | 4.25 | 1.33 | 2.55 | 3 | W |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergej Milinkovic-Savic | midfielder | 9 | 798 | 2.41 | 5 | +2.59 | 0.27 |
| Gabriel Martinelli | attacker | 6 | 389 | 4.17 | 6 | +1.83 | 0.97 |
| Sultan Mandash | attacker | 10 | 482 | 1.53 | 3 | +1.47 | 0.29 |
| Rúben Neves | midfielder | 10 | 851 | 2.91 | 4 | +1.09 | 0.31 |
| Theo Hernández | defender | 6 | 366 | 0.38 | 1 | +0.62 | 0.09 |
| Kader Meïté | attacker | 5 | 146 | 0.94 | 1 | +0.06 | 0.58 |
| Ollie Watkins | attacker | 7 | 573 | 4.17 | 4 | -0.17 | 0.66 |
| Nasser Al-Dawsari | midfielder | 10 | 397 | 1.97 | 1 | -0.97 | 0.45 |
| Hassan Tambakti | defender | 7 | 492 | 1.32 | 0 | -1.32 | 0.24 |
| Mohamed Kanno | midfielder | 9 | 620 | 1.53 | 0 | -1.53 | 0.22 |
| Crysencio Summerville | attacker | 10 | 884 | 4.57 | 3 | -1.57 | 0.46 |
| Kalidou Koulibaly | defender | 10 | 883 | 1.92 | 0 | -1.92 | 0.20 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ittihad | 10 | 21.1 | 20 | 14.6 | 10 | 17.4 | 23 | +5.6 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 10 | 17.4 | 23 | 7.5 | 8 | 20.1 | 25 | +4.9 |
| 3 | Al Ettifaq | 11 | 14.6 | 17 | 17.1 | 16 | 13.7 | 18 | +4.3 |
| 4 | Al-Qadsiah | 11 | 23.8 | 26 | 13.7 | 12 | 21 | 25 | +4 |
| 5 | Al Hilal | 10 | 31.2 | 30 | 10.2 | 9 | 23.8 | 27 | +3.2 |
| 6 | NEOM SC | 11 | 15.5 | 16 | 14.3 | 9 | 16.6 | 19 | +2.4 |
| 7 | Al Ahli | 10 | 23.9 | 27 | 12.6 | 13 | 19.1 | 21 | +1.9 |
| 8 | Al Riyadh | 10 | 9.5 | 11 | 16.2 | 19 | 10.4 | 12 | +1.6 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej | 11 | 10.2 | 10 | 15.9 | 17 | 11.4 | 12 | +0.6 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 11 | 10.5 | 12 | 24.3 | 19 | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 | Al Draih | 11 | 14.9 | 9 | 14.9 | 11 | 15.6 | 15 | -0.6 |
| 12 | Al Hazm | 11 | 13.2 | 12 | 21.6 | 16 | 11.7 | 10 | -1.7 |
| 13 | Al Faisaly | 10 | 10.7 | 11 | 17.5 | 20 | 9.8 | 7 | -2.8 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 10 | 19.2 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 15.2 | 12 | -3.2 |
| 15 | Al Shabab | 10 | 16.6 | 14 | 15.7 | 14 | 14.7 | 11 | -3.7 |
| 16 | Al Fateh | 11 | 13.2 | 10 | 22.3 | 23 | 10 | 6 | -4 |
| 17 | Abha | 9 | 8.9 | 6 | 13.3 | 17 | 9.2 | 2 | -7.2 |
| 18 | Al Taawoun | 11 | 13.4 | 5 | 18.1 | 19 | 12.7 | 4 | -8.7 |