Yes, Al Ittihad have taken 34 points over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 6.13 more than the 27.87 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Al Ittihad create 1.64 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 32.82 in all, and have scored 32 goals from those chances, 0.82 fewer than that xG would expect.
Al Ittihad allow 1.66 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 33.24 in all, and have conceded 30 goals from those chances, 3.24 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Youssef En-Nesyri has the most expected goals (xG) for Al Ittihad over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 6.16 xG in 18 appearances, and has scored 10 goals; Houssem Aouar is next with 6.04 xG.
Al Ittihad have taken 6.1 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: -0.8 goals against their xG, and +3.2 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 32.82 | 32 | -0.82 | 33.24 | 30 | +3.24 | 27.87 | 34 | +6.13 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 18.84 | 17 | -1.84 | 17.68 | 17 | +0.68 | 14.73 | 17 | +2.27 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 9.33 | 9 | -0.33 | 7.27 | 6 | +1.27 | 8.17 | 10 | +1.83 |
| Home | 10 | 19.43 | 16 | -3.43 | 15.40 | 15 | +0.40 | 16.53 | 20 | +3.47 |
| Away | 10 | 13.39 | 16 | +2.61 | 17.84 | 15 | +2.84 | 11.34 | 14 | +2.66 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Saudi Pro League | Al Hilal (A) | 3-2 | 1.17 | 2.41 | 0.69 | 0 | L |
| 11 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Faisaly (A) | 1-3 | 1.41 | 0.94 | 1.71 | 3 | W |
| 8 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al-Fayha (H) | 2-1 | 2.59 | 0.97 | 2.32 | 3 | W |
| 5 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Nassr (H) | 2-1 | 1.54 | 1.55 | 1.37 | 3 | L |
| 29 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al Fateh (A) | 0-0 | 2.62 | 1.40 | 2.08 | 1 | W |
| 24 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al Hazm (H) | 3-2 | 3.23 | 1.02 | 2.50 | 3 | W |
| 21 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al-Qadsiah (A) | 0-1 | 0.30 | 2.34 | 0.23 | 3 | L |
| 15 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al Kholood (H) | 1-1 | 2.54 | 1.86 | 1.77 | 1 | W |
| 21 May | Saudi Pro League | Al-Qadsiah (H) | 1-5 | 1.91 | 3.80 | 0.59 | 0 | L |
| 17 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Shabab (A) | 3-2 | 1.53 | 1.39 | 1.47 | 0 | W |
| 14 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Ettifaq (A) | 1-3 | 2.61 | 1.37 | 2.09 | 3 | W |
| 10 May | Saudi Pro League | Damac FC (H) | 2-1 | 1.94 | 1.09 | 1.93 | 3 | W |
| 4 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Kholood (H) | 0-0 | 1.57 | 0.86 | 1.87 | 1 | W |
| 29 Apr | Saudi Pro League | Al Taawoun (A) | 0-2 | 0.50 | 1.92 | 0.46 | 3 | L |
| 8 Apr | Saudi Pro League | NEOM SC (H) | 3-4 | 1.61 | 2.26 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 3 Apr | Saudi Pro League | Al Hazm (H) | 1-0 | 1.23 | 1.42 | 1.24 | 3 | L |
| 13 Mar | Saudi Pro League | Al Riyadh (A) | 3-1 | 1.22 | 3.24 | 0.45 | 0 | L |
| 6 Mar | Saudi Pro League | Al Ahli (A) | 3-1 | 1.17 | 1.69 | 1.03 | 0 | L |
| 27 Feb | Saudi Pro League | Al Khaleej (H) | 1-0 | 1.27 | 0.57 | 1.91 | 3 | W |
| 24 Feb | Saudi Pro League | Al Hazm (A) | 1-1 | 0.86 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1 | L |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Youssef En-Nesyri | attacker | 18 | 1302 | 6.16 | 10 | +3.84 | 0.43 |
| George Ilenikhena | attacker | 8 | 413 | 2.43 | 4 | +1.57 | 0.53 |
| Roger Fernandes | attacker | 4 | 304 | 0.13 | 1 | +0.87 | 0.04 |
| Abdulaziz Al-Bishi | attacker | 10 | 127 | 0.32 | 1 | +0.68 | 0.23 |
| Moussa Diaby | attacker | 11 | 735 | 1.57 | 2 | +0.44 | 0.19 |
| Danilo Pereira | defender | 16 | 1408 | 1.60 | 2 | +0.40 | 0.10 |
| Abdulrahman Al-Oboud | attacker | 9 | 413 | 0.80 | 1 | +0.20 | 0.17 |
| Fabinho | midfielder | 10 | 900 | 1.02 | 1 | -0.02 | 0.10 |
| Ahmed Al-Ghamdi | attacker | 15 | 595 | 0.61 | 0 | -0.61 | 0.09 |
| Steven Bergwijn | attacker | 17 | 1348 | 5.91 | 5 | -0.91 | 0.39 |
| Marwan Alsahafi | attacker | 8 | 290 | 1.01 | 0 | -1.01 | 0.31 |
| Houssem Aouar | midfielder | 17 | 1434 | 6.04 | 5 | -1.04 | 0.38 |
| Saleh Al-Shehri | attacker | 8 | 129 | 1.31 | 0 | -1.31 | 0.91 |
| Muhannad Shanqeeti | defender | 16 | 1130 | 1.60 | 0 | -1.60 | 0.13 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ittihad | 8 | 15.4 | 14 | 12.5 | 9 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 2 | Al-Qadsiah | 9 | 21.3 | 23 | 10.4 | 9 | 18.3 | 22 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Al Ettifaq | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12.4 | 12 | 12.1 | 15 | +2.9 |
| 4 | Al Hilal | 8 | 25.5 | 26 | 9.3 | 7 | 18.5 | 21 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Al Nassr | 8 | 13.9 | 19 | 5.9 | 7 | 16.6 | 19 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 7.5 | 9 | 14.3 | 17 | 7.7 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Al Ahli | 8 | 18.1 | 20 | 11.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 15 | +1.2 |
| 8 | NEOM SC | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 16 | +1 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej | 10 | 9.5 | 9 | 12.8 | 13 | 11.2 | 12 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 8.9 | 8 | 19.2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | -0 |
| 11 | Al Hazm | 9 | 10.8 | 10 | 17.7 | 13 | 9.4 | 9 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Al Faisaly | 8 | 8.3 | 8 | 15.7 | 15 | 6.7 | 6 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Al Draih | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 9 | 17.2 | 14 | 16.5 | 18 | 13.5 | 12 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Al Shabab | 8 | 11.7 | 9 | 13.4 | 11 | 10.7 | 7 | -3.7 |
| 16 | Al Fateh | 10 | 12 | 9 | 18.7 | 20 | 9.7 | 6 | -3.7 |
| 17 | Abha | 8 | 7.6 | 6 | 11.9 | 15 | 7.8 | 2 | -5.8 |
| 18 | Al Taawoun | 9 | 12.4 | 4 | 15.3 | 16 | 11.3 | 4 | -7.3 |