Which sides have got more from their chances than they deserved, and which have got less.
Updated 19 October 2026, after the last game
Al Taawoun have the biggest shortfall in the Saudi Pro League: 4 points from chances worth 11.3 xPts, a gap of 7.3. At the other end, Al Ittihad have taken 17 points from an xPts figure of 12.7, 4.3 more than the underlying numbers justify.
Expected goals measure the quality of the chances a team creates and concedes, with every shot scored between 0 and 1 by how often shots like it are converted. Expected points come from running each finished match through a Poisson model using both sides' xG, giving a win, draw and loss probability, then awarding three points and one point against those probabilities. Underlying data is supplied by Sportmonks. How xG is calculated How xPts is calculated
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Qadsiah | 5 | 11 | 10.5 | +0.5 | 8 | 4.3 | +3.7 | +3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 |
| 2 | NEOM SC | 5 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | +3 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 9 | 9.1 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Al Nassr | 4 | 10 | 7.4 | +2.6 | 2 | 2.8 | -0.8 | +8 | 4.7 | +3.3 | 12 | 8.7 | +3.3 |
| 4 | Al Hilal | 4 | 10 | 10.7 | -0.7 | 6 | 5.2 | +0.8 | +4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 9 | 8.3 | +0.7 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad | 4 | 8 | 9.9 | -1.9 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 | +3 | 4.5 | -1.5 | 10 | 8.0 | +2.0 |
| 6 | Al Ettifaq | 5 | 7 | 8.3 | -1.3 | 9 | 7.1 | +1.9 | -2 | 1.2 | -3.2 | 5 | 7.7 | -2.7 |
| 7 | Al Draih | 5 | 2 | 5.9 | -3.9 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | -3 | 0.7 | -3.7 | 3 | 7.2 | -4.2 |
| 8 | Al Shabab | 5 | 7 | 8.7 | -1.7 | 8 | 9.5 | -1.5 | -1 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 5 | 7.1 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Al Ahli | 3 | 12 | 10.9 | +1.1 | 1 | 4.3 | -3.3 | +11 | 6.6 | +4.4 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 10 | Al Taawoun | 4 | 0 | 6.9 | -6.9 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 | -6 | -0.2 | -5.8 | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 |
| 11 | Al Kholood | 4 | 8 | 7.7 | +0.3 | 9 | 8.9 | +0.1 | -1 | -1.3 | +0.3 | 9 | 5.4 | +3.6 |
| 12 | Al Faisaly | 5 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 | 8 | 8.2 | -0.2 | -3 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 5 | 5.4 | -0.4 |
| 13 | Al Khaleej | 5 | 4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | -2 | -2.1 | +0.1 | 6 | 5.4 | +0.6 |
| 14 | Al Hazm | 5 | 5 | 5.2 | -0.2 | 6 | 7.9 | -1.9 | -1 | -2.7 | +1.7 | 5 | 4.9 | +0.1 |
| 15 | Al Fateh | 5 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | 10 | 9.4 | +0.6 | -7 | -4.1 | -2.9 | 1 | 4.4 | -3.4 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 3 | 3 | 2.8 | +0.2 | 4 | 3.6 | +0.4 | -1 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 6 | 3.6 | +2.4 |
| 17 | Abha | 3 | 2 | 2.3 | -0.3 | 4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | -2 | -1.0 | -1.0 | 1 | 3.3 | -2.3 |
| 18 | Al-Fayha | 4 | 6 | 3.9 | +2.1 | 8 | 9.4 | -1.4 | -2 | -5.4 | +3.4 | 5 | 2.9 | +2.1 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 4 | 16 | 14.8 | +1.2 | 1 | 4.1 | -3.1 | +15 | 10.7 | +4.3 | 12 | 10.1 | +1.9 |
| 2 | Al Kholood | 5 | 6 | 9.5 | -3.5 | 9 | 7.6 | +1.4 | -3 | 2.0 | -5.0 | 3 | 8.1 | -5.1 |
| 3 | Al Nassr | 4 | 9 | 6.5 | +2.5 | 5 | 3.2 | +1.8 | +4 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 7 | 7.9 | -0.9 |
| 4 | Al-Qadsiah | 4 | 12 | 10.7 | +1.3 | 1 | 6.1 | -5.1 | +11 | 4.7 | +6.3 | 12 | 7.6 | +4.4 |
| 5 | Al Ahli | 5 | 8 | 7.1 | +0.9 | 9 | 7.0 | +2.0 | -1 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 6 | 7.1 | -1.1 |
| 6 | Al Draih | 4 | 6 | 6.4 | -0.4 | 4 | 5.7 | -1.7 | +2 | 0.7 | +1.3 | 9 | 6.2 | +2.8 |
| 7 | NEOM SC | 4 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 2 | 4.9 | -2.9 | +3 | 0.6 | +2.4 | 7 | 6.0 | +1.0 |
| 8 | Al Khaleej | 5 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 | 7 | 6.5 | +0.5 | -2 | -1.2 | -0.8 | 6 | 5.8 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Al Fateh | 5 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 | 10 | 9.3 | +0.7 | -4 | -2.6 | -1.4 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 10 | Al Taawoun | 5 | 4 | 5.6 | -1.6 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | -6 | -2.7 | -3.3 | 1 | 5.2 | -4.2 |
| 11 | Al Ittihad | 4 | 6 | 5.5 | +0.5 | 4 | 7.1 | -3.1 | +2 | -1.6 | +3.6 | 7 | 4.7 | +2.3 |
| 12 | Abha | 5 | 4 | 5.3 | -1.3 | 11 | 8.7 | +2.3 | -7 | -3.3 | -3.7 | 1 | 4.6 | -3.6 |
| 13 | Al Hazm | 4 | 5 | 5.6 | -0.6 | 7 | 9.8 | -2.8 | -2 | -4.2 | +2.2 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 |
| 14 | Al Ettifaq | 4 | 6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 3 | 5.3 | -2.3 | +3 | -1.6 | +4.6 | 10 | 4.3 | +5.7 |
| 15 | Al-Fayha | 5 | 2 | 5.0 | -3.0 | 6 | 9.8 | -3.8 | -4 | -4.8 | +0.8 | 2 | 4.1 | -2.1 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 5 | 6 | 4.7 | +1.3 | 13 | 10.7 | +2.3 | -7 | -6.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 4.1 | -1.1 |
| 17 | Al Shabab | 3 | 2 | 3.0 | -1.0 | 3 | 3.9 | -0.9 | -1 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 2 | 3.7 | -1.7 |
| 18 | Al Faisaly | 3 | 3 | 2.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 7.4 | -0.4 | -4 | -5.2 | +1.2 | 1 | 1.3 | -0.3 |
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 5 | 14 | 14.9 | -0.9 | 4 | 6.1 | -2.1 | +10 | 8.8 | +1.2 | 12 | 11.0 | +1.0 |
| 2 | Al Nassr | 5 | 9 | 8.8 | +0.2 | 5 | 3.9 | +1.1 | +4 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 10 | 10.3 | -0.3 |
| 3 | Al-Qadsiah | 5 | 15 | 12.2 | +2.8 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | +9 | 5.5 | +3.5 | 13 | 9.6 | +3.4 |
| 4 | Al Ahli | 5 | 14 | 13.2 | +0.8 | 7 | 7.2 | -0.2 | +7 | 6.0 | +1.0 | 9 | 9.2 | -0.2 |
| 5 | NEOM SC | 5 | 10 | 8.3 | +1.7 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | +6 | 3.3 | +2.7 | 10 | 9.2 | +0.8 |
| 6 | Al Ittihad | 5 | 9 | 9.3 | -0.3 | 6 | 7.3 | -1.3 | +3 | 2.1 | +0.9 | 10 | 8.2 | +1.8 |
| 7 | Al Kholood | 5 | 6 | 11.3 | -5.3 | 13 | 10.1 | +2.9 | -7 | 1.2 | -8.2 | 4 | 8.1 | -4.1 |
| 8 | Al Draih | 5 | 3 | 7.1 | -4.1 | 7 | 6.3 | +0.7 | -4 | 0.7 | -4.7 | 5 | 7.4 | -2.4 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej | 5 | 7 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 4 | 5.8 | -1.8 | +3 | 0.0 | +3.0 | 9 | 6.7 | +2.3 |
| 10 | Al Riyadh | 5 | 4 | 5.0 | -1.0 | 6 | 6.5 | -0.5 | -2 | -1.4 | -0.6 | 8 | 6.3 | +1.7 |
| 11 | Al Shabab | 5 | 5 | 6.2 | -1.2 | 5 | 8.8 | -3.8 | +0 | -2.7 | +2.7 | 5 | 6.1 | -1.1 |
| 12 | Al Ettifaq | 5 | 6 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 4 | 6.5 | -2.5 | +2 | -1.5 | +3.5 | 9 | 6.0 | +3.0 |
| 13 | Al Taawoun | 5 | 1 | 6.3 | -5.3 | 11 | 10.0 | +1.0 | -10 | -3.8 | -6.2 | 2 | 5.4 | -3.4 |
| 14 | Al Hazm | 5 | 5 | 6.9 | -1.9 | 7 | 11.2 | -4.2 | -2 | -4.3 | +2.3 | 5 | 5.3 | -0.3 |
| 15 | Al Fateh | 5 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | 15 | 9.7 | +5.3 | -7 | -3.4 | -3.6 | 3 | 4.8 | -1.8 |
| 16 | Abha | 5 | 4 | 4.7 | -0.7 | 8 | 7.6 | +0.4 | -4 | -2.9 | -1.1 | 1 | 4.7 | -3.7 |
| 17 | Al Faisaly | 5 | 5 | 4.8 | +0.2 | 8 | 8.7 | -0.7 | -3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | 5 | 4.1 | +0.9 |
| 18 | Al-Fayha | 5 | 4 | 4.1 | -0.1 | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | -3 | -5.3 | +2.3 | 3 | 3.6 | -0.6 |
Al Nassr are overperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 19 goals from chances worth 13.9 xG, a gap of 5.1. Al Ahli are next on 1.9.
Al Taawoun are underperforming their xG by more than any other side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 4 goals from chances worth 12.4 xG, a shortfall of 8.4. Al Draih are next on 4.4.
Al Ittihad are the luckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 17 points from performances worth 12.7 xPts, 4.3 more than their chances deserved. Al-Qadsiah are next on 3.7.
Al Taawoun are the unluckiest side in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, with 4 points from performances worth 11.3 xPts, 7.3 short of what they deserved. Abha are next on 5.8.
Al Hilal would be top of the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027 on expected points, with 18.5 xPts from 25.5 xG created and 9.3 conceded across eight matches. Al-Qadsiah are next on 18.3.
Al Hilal have created the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 25.5 from eight matches, 3.2 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Al-Qadsiah are next on 21.3.
Al Riyadh have created the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 7.5 from eight matches, 0.9 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Abha are next on 7.6.
Al-Fayha have conceded the most xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 19.2 from nine matches, 2.1 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Al Hazm and Al Fateh are next on 17.7.
Al Nassr have conceded the least xG in the Saudi Pro League in 2026/2027, 5.9 from eight matches, 0.7 a game against a competition average of 1.5. Al Hilal are next on 9.3.
Saudi Pro League teams have averaged 1.54 xG a game in 2026/2027, from the 77 matches played, and have scored 1.42 goals a game from it. That is up from 1.43 xG a game in 2025/2026.
Saudi Pro League teams create more xG at home in 2026/2027, 1.61 a game against 1.46 away, a home advantage of +0.16, against +0.19 in 2025/2026.
The same season by player, with the goals each one scored against the chances they had.
| # | Team | Played | Goals | xG | Goals minus xG | Goals against | xGA | Goals against minus xGA | Goal difference | xGD | Goal difference minus xGD | Points | xPts | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Hilal | 8 | 26 | 25.5 | +0.5 | 7 | 9.3 | -2.3 | +19 | 16.3 | +2.7 | 21 | 18.5 | +2.5 |
| 2 | Al-Qadsiah | 9 | 23 | 21.3 | +1.7 | 9 | 10.4 | -1.4 | +14 | 10.8 | +3.2 | 22 | 18.3 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Al Nassr | 8 | 19 | 13.9 | +5.1 | 7 | 5.9 | +1.1 | +12 | 8.0 | +4.0 | 19 | 16.6 | +2.4 |
| 4 | NEOM SC | 9 | 14 | 13.9 | +0.1 | 8 | 10.1 | -2.1 | +6 | 3.7 | +2.3 | 16 | 15.0 | +1.0 |
| 5 | Al Ahli | 8 | 20 | 18.1 | +1.9 | 10 | 11.4 | -1.4 | +10 | 6.7 | +3.3 | 15 | 13.8 | +1.2 |
| 6 | Al Kholood | 9 | 14 | 17.2 | -3.2 | 18 | 16.5 | +1.5 | -4 | 0.7 | -4.7 | 12 | 13.5 | -1.5 |
| 7 | Al Draih | 9 | 8 | 12.4 | -4.4 | 9 | 11.0 | -2.0 | -1 | 1.4 | -2.4 | 12 | 13.4 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Al Ittihad | 8 | 14 | 15.4 | -1.4 | 9 | 12.5 | -3.5 | +5 | 2.9 | +2.1 | 17 | 12.7 | +4.3 |
| 9 | Al Ettifaq | 9 | 13 | 12.0 | +1.0 | 12 | 12.4 | -0.4 | +1 | -0.4 | +1.4 | 15 | 12.1 | +2.9 |
| 10 | Al Taawoun | 9 | 4 | 12.4 | -8.4 | 16 | 15.3 | +0.7 | -12 | -2.9 | -9.1 | 4 | 11.3 | -7.3 |
| 11 | Al Khaleej | 10 | 9 | 9.5 | -0.5 | 13 | 12.8 | +0.2 | -4 | -3.3 | -0.7 | 12 | 11.2 | +0.8 |
| 12 | Al Shabab | 8 | 9 | 11.7 | -2.7 | 11 | 13.4 | -2.4 | -2 | -1.7 | -0.3 | 7 | 10.7 | -3.7 |
| 13 | Al Fateh | 10 | 9 | 12.0 | -3.0 | 20 | 18.7 | +1.3 | -11 | -6.7 | -4.3 | 6 | 9.7 | -3.7 |
| 14 | Al Hazm | 9 | 10 | 10.8 | -0.8 | 13 | 17.7 | -4.7 | -3 | -6.9 | +3.9 | 9 | 9.4 | -0.4 |
| 15 | Abha | 8 | 6 | 7.6 | -1.6 | 15 | 11.9 | +3.1 | -9 | -4.3 | -4.7 | 2 | 7.8 | -5.8 |
| 16 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 9 | 7.5 | +1.5 | 17 | 14.3 | +2.7 | -8 | -6.8 | -1.2 | 9 | 7.7 | +1.3 |
| 17 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 8 | 8.9 | -0.9 | 14 | 19.2 | -5.2 | -6 | -10.3 | +4.3 | 7 | 7.0 | +0.0 |
| 18 | Al Faisaly | 8 | 8 | 8.3 | -0.3 | 15 | 15.7 | -0.7 | -7 | -7.3 | +0.3 | 6 | 6.7 | -0.7 |