Yes, Al Ahli have taken 43 points over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 7.42 more than the 35.58 expected points (xPts) their chances were worth, so their results are running ahead of their performances.
Al Ahli create 1.85 expected goals (xG) per game over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 36.98 in all, and have scored 47 goals from those chances, 10.02 more than that xG would expect.
Al Ahli allow 1.03 expected goals against (xGA) per game over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 20.65 in all, and have conceded 20 goals from those chances, 0.65 fewer than that xGA would expect.
Ivan Toney has the most expected goals (xG) for Al Ahli over their last 20 Saudi Pro League games, 16.16 xG in 19 appearances, and has scored 21 goals; Saleh Abu Al-Shamat is next with 2.22 xG.
Al Ahli have taken 7.4 points more than their chances warranted over 20 games: +10.0 goals against their xG, and +0.7 on the goals their xGA expected them to concede. Finishing and goalkeeping at that level rarely hold, so the table is the optimistic reading of this side.
| Window | Games | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xGA | Conceded | xGA minus conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 20 | 20 | 36.98 | 47 | +10.02 | 20.65 | 20 | +0.65 | 35.58 | 43 | +7.42 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 21.35 | 27 | +5.65 | 12.69 | 11 | +1.69 | 17.97 | 21 | +3.03 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 13.24 | 14 | +0.76 | 7.21 | 7 | +0.21 | 9.25 | 9 | -0.25 |
| Home | 8 | 21.94 | 28 | +6.06 | 7.77 | 3 | +4.77 | 17.84 | 24 | +6.16 |
| Away | 12 | 15.04 | 19 | +3.96 | 12.88 | 17 | -4.12 | 17.74 | 19 | +1.26 |
| Date | Competition | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | xPts | Points | Deserved result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct | Saudi Pro League | Al Fateh (A) | 0-4 | 1.82 | 0.39 | 2.38 | 3 | W |
| 11 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Hazm (H) | 3-1 | 5.50 | 1.95 | 2.37 | 3 | W |
| 8 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al-Qadsiah (A) | 3-2 | 1.24 | 1.87 | 0.98 | 0 | L |
| 4 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Riyadh (H) | 5-0 | 3.33 | 0.94 | 2.56 | 3 | W |
| 1 Sep | Saudi Pro League | Al Hilal (A) | 3-0 | 1.35 | 2.06 | 0.96 | 0 | L |
| 29 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al Kholood (A) | 3-1 | 1.47 | 1.07 | 1.65 | 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Abha (H) | 4-0 | 2.11 | 1.44 | 1.80 | 3 | W |
| 13 Aug | Saudi Pro League | Al Draih (A) | 0-1 | 1.24 | 1.62 | 1.13 | 3 | L |
| 20 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Khaleej (A) | 1-4 | 1.86 | 0.89 | 2.03 | 3 | W |
| 16 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Kholood (H) | 3-0 | 1.43 | 0.46 | 2.11 | 3 | W |
| 11 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Taawoun (A) | 1-2 | 0.85 | 1.07 | 1.16 | 3 | L |
| 6 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Fateh (H) | 3-1 | 4.17 | 0.81 | 2.71 | 3 | W |
| 3 May | Saudi Pro League | Al Akhdoud (H) | 4-0 | 2.25 | 0.39 | 2.55 | 3 | W |
| 29 Apr | Saudi Pro League | Al Nassr (A) | 2-0 | 0.15 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0 | D |
| 8 Apr | Saudi Pro League | Al-Fayha (A) | 1-1 | 1.45 | 1.09 | 1.62 | 1 | W |
| 4 Apr | Saudi Pro League | Damac FC (H) | 3-0 | 1.46 | 0.61 | 2.01 | 3 | W |
| 13 Mar | Saudi Pro League | Al-Qadsiah (A) | 3-2 | 1.36 | 0.81 | 1.77 | 0 | W |
| 6 Mar | Saudi Pro League | Al Ittihad (H) | 3-1 | 1.69 | 1.17 | 1.73 | 3 | W |
| 26 Feb | Saudi Pro League | Al Riyadh (A) | 0-1 | 1.55 | 0.79 | 1.91 | 3 | W |
| 23 Feb | Saudi Pro League | Damac FC (A) | 0-1 | 0.70 | 0.53 | 1.46 | 3 | D |
| Player | Position | Apps | Minutes | xG | Goals | Goals minus xG | xG per 90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Toney | attacker | 19 | 1674 | 16.16 | 21 | +4.84 | 0.87 |
| Francisco Trincão | midfielder | 8 | 650 | 2.02 | 5 | +2.98 | 0.28 |
| Firas Al-Buraikan | attacker | 20 | 915 | 1.37 | 3 | +1.63 | 0.13 |
| Franck Kessié | midfielder | 9 | 683 | 1.58 | 3 | +1.42 | 0.21 |
| Roger Ibañez | defender | 17 | 1493 | 0.67 | 2 | +1.33 | 0.04 |
| Valentin Atangana | midfielder | 17 | 1386 | 1.79 | 3 | +1.21 | 0.12 |
| Eduard Spertsyan | midfielder | 8 | 635 | 1.01 | 2 | +0.99 | 0.14 |
| Matheus Gonçalves | attacker | 8 | 520 | 1.33 | 2 | +0.67 | 0.23 |
| Rayan Hamed | defender | 18 | 1187 | 0.62 | 1 | +0.38 | 0.05 |
| Enzo Millot | midfielder | 8 | 706 | 0.66 | 1 | +0.34 | 0.08 |
| Ziyad Al-Johani | midfielder | 16 | 975 | 0.88 | 1 | +0.12 | 0.08 |
| Riyad Mahrez | attacker | 9 | 765 | 1.53 | 1 | -0.53 | 0.18 |
| Saleh Abu Al-Shamat | attacker | 17 | 550 | 2.22 | 1 | -1.22 | 0.36 |
| Merih Demiral | defender | 12 | 960 | 1.39 | 0 | -1.39 | 0.13 |
| Galeno | attacker | 14 | 1068 | 2.06 | 0 | -2.06 | 0.17 |
| # | Team | MP | xG | Goals | xGA | Conceded | xPts | Points | Points minus xPts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Ittihad | 8 | 15.4 | 14 | 12.5 | 9 | 12.7 | 17 | +4.3 |
| 2 | Al-Qadsiah | 9 | 21.3 | 23 | 10.4 | 9 | 18.3 | 22 | +3.7 |
| 3 | Al Ettifaq | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12.4 | 12 | 12.1 | 15 | +2.9 |
| 4 | Al Hilal | 8 | 25.5 | 26 | 9.3 | 7 | 18.5 | 21 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Al Nassr | 8 | 13.9 | 19 | 5.9 | 7 | 16.6 | 19 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Al Riyadh | 8 | 7.5 | 9 | 14.3 | 17 | 7.7 | 9 | +1.3 |
| 7 | Al Ahli | 8 | 18.1 | 20 | 11.4 | 10 | 13.8 | 15 | +1.2 |
| 8 | NEOM SC | 9 | 13.9 | 14 | 10.1 | 8 | 15 | 16 | +1 |
| 9 | Al Khaleej | 10 | 9.5 | 9 | 12.8 | 13 | 11.2 | 12 | +0.8 |
| 10 | Al-Fayha | 9 | 8.9 | 8 | 19.2 | 14 | 7 | 7 | -0 |
| 11 | Al Hazm | 9 | 10.8 | 10 | 17.7 | 13 | 9.4 | 9 | -0.4 |
| 12 | Al Faisaly | 8 | 8.3 | 8 | 15.7 | 15 | 6.7 | 6 | -0.7 |
| 13 | Al Draih | 9 | 12.4 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 13.4 | 12 | -1.4 |
| 14 | Al Kholood | 9 | 17.2 | 14 | 16.5 | 18 | 13.5 | 12 | -1.5 |
| 15 | Al Shabab | 8 | 11.7 | 9 | 13.4 | 11 | 10.7 | 7 | -3.7 |
| 16 | Al Fateh | 10 | 12 | 9 | 18.7 | 20 | 9.7 | 6 | -3.7 |
| 17 | Abha | 8 | 7.6 | 6 | 11.9 | 15 | 7.8 | 2 | -5.8 |
| 18 | Al Taawoun | 9 | 12.4 | 4 | 15.3 | 16 | 11.3 | 4 | -7.3 |