5/2 Bet Builder for Newcastle v Everton

Newcastle against Everton at St. James' Park, kick-off 20:00 on Monday, and our model has the home side ahead without making it easy: Newcastle 44% to win, the draw 26% and Everton 30%, with 1-1 the likeliest single score. They sit 12th and 14th, on 11 points and 10 after eight games each.

So here is the 5/2 bet builder: Barry to have 2+ shots, Dewsbury-Hall to have 1+ shot, Barnes to have 3+ shots and González to commit 2+ fouls. All four are in our predicted XI, and all four cleared their line when the sides met on Thursday, a 3-1 win for Everton in the Carabao Cup.

Below we go through how we found each one, what the stats pages show and where the price comes from. The match page has the lineups, projections and bets for the game, and the Newcastle v Everton bet builder page has the live prices if you want to build it yourself.

The slip

Newcastle v Everton

Premier League - Mon 20:00

Our bet builder

@ 5/2

bet365 builder

LAST 5ODDS

T. Barry

2+ Shots

223535/5 hit

1/4

Dewsbury-Hall

1+ Shots

210164/5 hit

2/9

H. Barnes

3+ Shots

353324/5 hit

8/15

N. González

2+ Fouls

323204/5 hit

1/2

bet365 builder price, checked 10:14 GMT on Monday 2 November. Last five games, most recent first.Customise

The 5/2 is bet365's own builder price for the four selections together, 3.50 in decimals, the same as the four prices multiplied. Each square is one of the player's last five games, green where he cleared the line. His season record is in the section on him below.

How we built it

We build these the same way every time. The order matters, because each step cuts the list down.

1. Start with the match. The Newcastle v Everton shots page lines both squads up on one stat: each player's last five games, our model's chance at the line and the bet365 price. The same view works for fouls. At 1+ shots Barnes and Wissa top the list at 95%, with Barry next at 93%, and the prices at that line are too short to build on, so the next step is to raise the line.
2. Check the team pages. Each club's stat page shows every player's match-by-match numbers at the line you pick, with a hit rate and our projection. We used Newcastle's shots page, Everton's shots page, Newcastle's fouls page and Everton's fouls page, and there are matching pages for Newcastle's tackles and Everton's tackles.
3. Make sure they play. Every selection is in our predicted XI, and the predicted XI filter is switched on in every screenshot here. Barnes played 46 minutes on Thursday and González 81, so Newcastle's rotation is the thing to watch. Confirmed team sheets land about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place anything.
4. Price it in the bookmaker's own builder. A same-game price is not always the legs multiplied, so we put the four selections into bet365's bet builder and used the price it gave: 3.50, or 5/2.

Thierno Barry to have 2+ shots (1/4)

Barry is the one leg with a perfect record. He has had two or more shots in all 11 games this season, averaging 3.55 a game, and our model gives him a 74% chance of doing it again and projects 2.62 shots.

In his last five games he took 2, 2, 3, 5 and 3, and he played 90 minutes in four of them. He is Everton's striker in our predicted XI. See the Everton shots page and his player page.

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to have 1+ shot (2/9)

Dewsbury-Hall has had a shot in 10 of 11 games this season (91%), averaging 2.73, and our model gives him an 83% chance of at least one on Monday. The price, 2/9, is the shortest on the slip, so the leg is there for the safety of the record and not for the odds.

His last five games were 2, 1, 0, 1 and 6 shots, the blank coming against Chelsea at home. He is in our predicted XI as an attacking midfielder. His player page and the Everton shots page have the rest.

Harvey Barnes to have 3+ shots (8/15)

Barnes is the leg that moves the price. At 2+ shots he is 2/11 and has cleared the line in all of his last five games, so we raised it to 3+: he has done that in 6 of 11 games this season (55%), averaging 2.73, and in four of his last five, with 3, 5, 3, 3 and 2. Our model gives him a 58% chance and projects 3.02 shots.

He is Newcastle's left winger and he is in our predicted XI, but he played 46 minutes on Thursday and 77 the Sunday before, so this leg needs a start and a decent shift. See the Newcastle shots page and his player page.

Nico González to commit 2+ fouls (1/2)

González has committed two or more fouls in 7 of his 8 games this season (88%), averaging 2.63. Our model gives him a 65% chance on Monday and projects 2.21 fouls. It is the only foul leg on the slip.

In his last five appearances he committed 3, 2, 3, 2 and 0, the blank coming in a 19-minute appearance. He is a midfielder in our predicted XI. The Newcastle fouls page and his player page have the full record.

Other selections we looked at

These were on our list too, all in the predicted XI and all priced at bet365. They are the first place we would look if one of the four is ruled out, and each one changes the price when you swap it in.

Wissa is the one we nearly took, but two of his last five appearances lasted 13 and 44 minutes, so it needs a start, and Barnes at 2+ is too short to move the price, which is why we went to 3+.

How the legs fit together

Three of the four legs are shots and one is fouls. Barry and Dewsbury-Hall both need Everton to get shots away, so they tend to land together or not at all, while Barnes needs Newcastle to be attacking and González needs the game to be contested in midfield. Bookmakers price that overlap, which is why a same-game price can come out shorter than the legs multiplied.

We have not put a combined chance on the slip. The price is simply what bet365's builder offered for the four selections together.

The price

5/2 is bet365's own builder price for the four selections: 3.50 in decimals at 10:14 GMT on Monday 2 November. Multiplying the four prices (1/4, 2/9, 8/15 and 1/2) also gives 3.50, so there is no discount for putting them together.

Prices move, so check the live price and the confirmed team sheet before you place it.

The Newcastle v Everton bet builder page has the live prices for every selection above. For the match itself, see our Newcastle v Everton predictions, and for more on both clubs, Newcastle, Everton and the Premier League table. Every priced prop in the game is on the player props sheet with projections and hit rates alongside, there are more slips on our bet builder tips page, and the league-wide numbers are in the Premier League stats. Both sides' chance quality is on the Newcastle xG and Everton xG pages, with the league's xG table alongside.

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