4/1 Bet Builder for Liverpool v Arsenal

So here is the 4/1 bet builder: Mac Allister to have 2+ shots, Rice to make 2+ tackles and Gabriel to commit 1+ foul. Three selections, two of them from Arsenal's midfield and defence, and all three in our predicted XI.

Below we go through how we found each one, what the stats pages show and where the price comes from. The match page has the lineups, projections and bets for the game, and the Liverpool v Arsenal bet builder page has the live prices if you want to build it yourself.

The bet builder at a glance

Prices are bet365's, checked at 09:24 GMT on Sunday 1 November. The 4/1 is bet365's own builder price for the three selections together, 5.10 in decimals, which is a little shorter than the 5.24 you get by multiplying the three prices. Season is how often each player has cleared the line in all competitions this season, and Avg is his average per game.

How we built it

We build these the same way every time. The order matters, because each step cuts the list down.

1. Start with the match. The Liverpool v Arsenal fouls page lines both squads up on one stat: each player's total over the last ten games, his last five, our model's chance at the line and the price. The same view works for shots and tackles. Gabriel jumped out here, with 10 fouls across his last ten games and a 60% model chance of at least one on Sunday.
2. Check the team pages. Each club's stat page shows every player's match-by-match numbers at the line you pick, with a hit rate and our projection. We used Liverpool's shots page, Arsenal's tackles page and Arsenal's fouls page, and there are matching pages for Liverpool's tackles, Liverpool's fouls, Arsenal's shots and shots on target.
3. Make sure they play. Every selection is in our predicted XI, and the predicted XI filter is switched on in every screenshot here. Confirmed team sheets land about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place anything.
4. Price it in the bookmaker's own builder. A same-game price is not the legs multiplied, so we put the three selections into bet365's bet builder and used the price it gave: 5.10, or 4/1.

Alexis Mac Allister to have 2+ shots (1/1)

Mac Allister is the biggest price of the three, and the one that leans on volume. He has had two or more shots in 6 of 13 games this season across all competitions, averaging 1.77 a game, and our model projects 1.65 shots for him on Sunday.

The recent form is better than the season rate. He took 5, 4 and 4 shots in three of his last four starts, and he is a central midfielder in our predicted XI, so the role is not in doubt. All of Liverpool's numbers are on the Liverpool shots page, and his player page has the rest.

Declan Rice to make 2+ tackles (4/6)

Rice is the engine of the slip, and the player the whole Arsenal side of it rests on. He has made two or more tackles in 6 of 11 games this season (55%), averaging 1.82, and three of his last five games cleared the line with 6, 3 and 2.

Our model projects 2.08 tackles for him on Sunday, just above the line. His full match-by-match record is on Arsenal's tackles page, and his player page has the rest.

Gabriel Magalhães to commit 1+ foul (4/7)

Gabriel has committed a foul in 9 of 12 games this season (75%), averaging 1.08, and in four of his last five. On the match stats page he shows 10 fouls across his last ten games, and our model gives him a 60% chance of at least one on Sunday.

He is the one Arsenal defender on the slip. The full record is on Arsenal's fouls page, and his player page has more.

Other selections we looked at

These were on our list too, all in the predicted XI and all priced at Ladbrokes and Coral. They are the first place we would look if one of the three is ruled out, and each one changes the price when you swap it in.

Guimarães is on the list on form, and our model projects 2.58 tackles for him, but he is not assured of a start: only one of his last ten games ran the full 90 minutes, and a tackle line needs him on the pitch, so he is off the slip. Isak and Gakpo both look strong on recent form, but they are short prices on the Liverpool side and would shorten the slip a long way if swapped in for Mac Allister.

How the legs fit together

Rice's tackles and Gabriel's foul both come from Arsenal doing the defending. If they spend the afternoon without the ball, both tend to climb; if they control it, both can finish short. Mac Allister's shots point the other way, at a Liverpool midfielder who gets involved when his side has the ball. Bookmakers price that overlap, which is why a same-game price is usually a little shorter than the legs multiplied.

We have not put a combined chance on the slip. The price is simply what bet365's builder offered for the three selections together.

The price

4/1 is bet365's own builder price for the three selections: 5.10 in decimals at 09:24 GMT on Sunday 1 November, which is what the bet365 slip shows. Multiplying the three prices (1/1, 4/6 and 4/7) gives 5.24, so the builder is about 3% shorter, which is the usual gap between a same-game price and the legs multiplied.

Prices move, so check the live price and the confirmed team sheet before you place it.

The Liverpool v Arsenal bet builder page has the live prices for every selection above. For the match itself, see our Liverpool v Arsenal predictions, and for more on both clubs, Liverpool, Arsenal and the Premier League table. Every priced prop in the game is on the player props sheet with projections and hit rates alongside, there are more slips on our bet builder tips page, and the league-wide numbers are in the Premier League stats.

18+. Please gamble responsibly - begambleaware.org. These are match statistics, not settled bets. Prices change; check the live price.