2/1 Bet Builder for Man Utd v Roma

Manchester United host Roma at Old Trafford in the Champions League, kick-off 20:00 on Tuesday, and our model keeps United narrowly ahead despite their form: 41% to win, the draw 25% and Roma 34%, with 1-1 the likeliest single score. United have lost four of their last five in all competitions, while Roma are unbeaten in five and have scored 18 goals in them.

So here is the 2/1 bet builder: Malen to have 1+ shot on target, Mbeumo to have 2+ shots, Wesley to commit 1+ foul and Cristante to make 2+ tackles. All four are in our predicted XI. Three are Roma players, because United's prices are short next to their season records: Cunha's 1+ fouls, at 3/10, has landed in 8 of 13 games, for example.

Below we go through how we found each one, what the stats pages show and where the price comes from. The match page has the lineups, projections and bets for the game, and the Man Utd v Roma bet builder page has the live prices if you want to build it yourself.

The slip

Man Utd v Roma

Champions League - Tue 8pm

Our bet builder

@ 2/1

bet365 builder

LAST 5ODDS

D. Malen

1+ Shots on Target

311335/5 hit

1/4

B. Mbeumo

2+ Shots

121323/5 hit

1/4

Wesley

1+ Fouls

111204/5 hit

1/5

B. Cristante

2+ Tackles

231234/5 hit

8/13

bet365 builder price, checked 11:16 GMT on Tuesday 3 November. Last five games, most recent first.Customise

The 2/1 is bet365's own builder price for the four selections together, 3.00 in decimals, a little shorter than the 3.04 you get by multiplying the four prices. Each square is one of the player's last five games, green where he cleared the line. His season record is in the section on him below.

How we built it

We build these the same way every time. The order matters, because each step cuts the list down.

1. Start with the match. The Man Utd v Roma shots page lines both squads up on one stat: each player's last five games, our model's chance at the line and the bet365 price. The same view works for fouls and tackles. At 1+ shots the best-supported players are priced at 1/20 or shorter (Malen 1.01, Cunha 1.04, Fernandes and Mbeumo 1.05), so there is nothing to build on there and the next step is to move to another line or another market.
2. Check the team pages. Each club's stat page shows every player's match-by-match numbers at the line you pick, with a hit rate and our projection. We used Man Utd's shots page, Roma's shots on target page, Roma's fouls page and Roma's tackles page, and there are matching pages for Man Utd's fouls and Man Utd's tackles.
3. Make sure they play. Every selection is in our predicted XI, and the predicted XI filter is switched on in every screenshot here. Malen played only 59, 34 and 59 minutes in three of his last five games, and Cristante is back after not playing in four, with three 90-minute games since. Confirmed team sheets land about an hour before kick-off, so check them before you place anything.
4. Price it in the bookmaker's own builder. A same-game price is not always the legs multiplied, so we put the four selections into bet365's bet builder and used the price it gave: 3.00, or 2/1.

Donyell Malen to have 1+ shot on target (1/4)

Malen has had a shot on target in 10 of 12 games this season (83%), averaging 1.75 a game, and in each of his last five appearances, with 3, 1, 1, 3 and 3. Our model gives him a 68% chance of at least one on Tuesday and projects 1.14.

He is Roma's striker and he is in our predicted XI, but he played only 59, 34 and 59 minutes in three of those five games, so the leg needs him on the pitch for long enough. The Roma shots on target page and his player page have the rest.

Bryan Mbeumo to have 2+ shots (1/4)

Mbeumo has had two or more shots in 9 of 13 games this season (69%), averaging 2.38, and in three of his last five, with 1, 2, 1, 3 and 2. Our model gives him a 67% chance on Tuesday and projects 2.30 shots.

He played 90 minutes in four of those five games and is in our predicted XI. He is the only United player on the slip, because their prices are short next to their records. See the Man Utd shots page and his player page.

Wesley to commit 1+ foul (1/5)

Wesley has committed a foul in 10 of 12 games this season (83%), averaging 1.00, and in four of his last five appearances, with 1, 1, 1, 2 and 0, the blank coming in a 12-minute appearance. Our model gives him a 69% chance on Tuesday and projects 1.17 fouls.

He is in our predicted XI, though he played 45, 59 and 12 minutes in three of those five games, so a short night would cost him chances. See the Roma fouls page and his player page.

Bryan Cristante to make 2+ tackles (8/13)

Cristante has made two or more tackles in 6 of 9 games this season (67%), averaging 2.11, and in four of his last five appearances, with 2, 3, 1, 2 and 3. Our model gives him a 56% chance and projects 1.88 tackles.

He did not play in four games in October and has played the full 90 in each of the three since. He is a midfielder in our predicted XI. The Roma tackles page and his player page have the full record.

Other selections we looked at

These were on our list too, all in the predicted XI and all priced at bet365. They are the first place we would look if one of the four is ruled out, and each one changes the price when you swap it in.

Malen at 3+ shots has cleared the line in each of his last five games, but our model puts it at 44%, which is why we took shots on target instead. The three United players are the alternatives on that side, and their season hit rates are 67% (Fernandes), 62% (Cunha) and 50% (Mount).

How the legs fit together

Malen and Mbeumo are the attacking legs, one for each side, so both can land in the same game. Wesley's fouls and Cristante's tackles come from Roma defending, so they are likelier if United have the ball. Bookmakers price that overlap, which is why a same-game price can come out shorter than the legs multiplied.

We have not put a combined chance on the slip. The price is simply what bet365's builder offered for the four selections together.

The price

2/1 is bet365's own builder price for the four selections: 3.00 in decimals at 11:16 GMT on Tuesday 3 November. Multiplying the four prices (1/4, 1/4, 1/5 and 8/13) gives 3.04, so the builder is about 1% shorter.

Prices move, so check the live price and the confirmed team sheet before you place it.

The Man Utd v Roma bet builder page has the live prices for every selection above. For the match itself, see our Man Utd v Roma predictions, and for more on both clubs, Man Utd, Roma and the Champions League table. Every priced prop in the game is on the player props sheet with projections and hit rates alongside, there are more slips on our bet builder tips page, and the competition-wide numbers are in the Champions League stats. Both sides' chance quality is on the Man Utd xG and Roma xG pages, with the competition's xG table alongside.

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